Some face precarious employment and are at risk of falling out of the middle income bracket.
There is no definition of the middle class in China, but the commonly used expression middle income class is defined by the National Bureau of Statistics as a three-person household with an annual income of 100,000 yuan (approximately 1.4 million yen) to 500,000 yuan. There is.
In an unusual warning, an editorial in the state-run Economic Daily last month pointed out the risk of a decline in the middle-income class and called for the “necessity and urgency” to promote its growth.
“Middle-income groups are critical to economic growth, social stability, and meeting external challenges,” the commentary, published Dec. 27, said.
“However, the majority of the group is lower-middle income. Some face precarious employment and are at risk of falling out of the middle income bracket.”
02:31
China’s GDP: Beijing’s long to-do list for economic growth in 2024
China’s GDP: Beijing’s long to-do list for economic growth in 2024
China announced that there are approximately 400 million middle-income earners, or 140 million households, accounting for approximately 30% of the population of 1.4 billion.
Wang Yiming, a policy advisor at the People’s Bank of China, said most of this group is still likely to be near the lower end, thus justifying policy support to increase their incomes and enhance their sense of benefit.
“The majority of the group has just surpassed the middle-income threshold. This group is one of the most vulnerable to economic shocks such as pandemics, which can impact incomes and employment. ” said a former deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center in an interview with state-run CCTV. Early this month.
It is difficult to change jobs to a new field as a middle-aged man.
Mr Lee, a sales manager who turned 40 last year, was laid off two weeks ago after his employer, a content management website, downsized its marketing department.
“No matter what you invest, you will suffer a loss. With the current salary level, it is not easy to find a new job,” said Mr Lee, who only gave his last name due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“It’s difficult to move into a new field as a middle-aged man,” Lee added. He said his own income was primarily used to pay off the mortgage and car and personal loans for his family of four.
‘Nobody dares to spend money’: Why China’s middle class is tightening its grip
‘Nobody dares to spend money’: Why China’s middle class is tightening its grip
The average expected yield on one-year online wealth management products also stood at 2.79% in the second week of 2024, down from 4.41% almost two years ago, according to Chinese data provider Wind.
In addition, China’s real estate sales floor area has declined, falling by 8.5% to 112 million square meters (1.2 billion square feet) in 2023, the lowest level in a decade.
Winnie Liu, a manager at a foreign company in Shenzhen, bought a one-bedroom apartment in 2015 as an investment, seen as the most preferred method of wealth accumulation for Chinese families.
I hope there will be no big decline this year.
Prices peaked at 6.3 million yuan (approximately US$882,000) in 2021, but have fallen to less than 4 million yuan.
“My assets, both real estate and financial investments, have decreased significantly over the past two years,” Liu said.
“We hope we don’t see another significant drop this year.”
However, despite losing about 40% of his investment in the domestic stock market last year, Liu still considers himself lucky compared to those who invested in real estate since 2018.
“Many of them are starting to become negative wealth holders,” Liu added.
A survey of middle-class people aged 31 to 40 by financial and economics writer Wu Xiaobo showed that wealth growth slowed last year, leading to an increase in reluctance to spend. .
Almost half of those surveyed had annual pre-tax personal incomes of 200,000 yuan (US$28,000) to 500,000 yuan, and household assets of 3 million to 10 million yuan.
Chinese middle class avoids luxury spending amid uncertain outlook
Chinese middle class avoids luxury spending amid uncertain outlook
According to Wu’s report, 11.4% of middle-class households reported their wealth declined by more than 30% last year, and 28.9% said their wealth declined by between 10 and 30%.
According to the white paper, only 24.8% of respondents said their wealth would increase in 2023, compared to 29% a year ago and 55% in 2021.
After being laid off from a high-tech company in Shenzhen, he opened a kindergarten in his hometown in central Henan province, but it has not been profitable for the past six years.
Higher incomes can no longer be taken for granted.we need to work more to maintain a middle class life
“We used to collect 15,000 yuan per child per year, but since then we had to lower it to 10,000 yuan because many parents’ incomes have decreased. Still, enrollment has not reached its previous level. It’s a long way off,” Huang said. Fan has bank loans of hundreds of thousands of yuan, which she also borrows from her friends and relatives.
Huang returned to Shenzhen last summer and was offered a low-paying overseas job by a Chinese company.
“Improving incomes can no longer be taken for granted. We need to work more to maintain a middle-class lifestyle,” he said.
The US-based Pew Research Center estimated in 2021 that China’s middle-income class is likely to shrink by 10 million people in 2020 due to the coronavirus, but that decline was the same as the middle class before the coronavirus. It was announced that this is only a small fraction of the 504 million people. Pandemic.
Pew estimates that 247 million people entered China’s middle-income bracket in the 2010s, when the upper-middle-income population nearly quadrupled from 60 million to 234 million. increased.
According to a 2021 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China’s middle-income class swelled to about 707 million people (50.8% of the population) in 2018.
Most of the growth has occurred within the lower middle income group, with 68% of the middle class falling into that bracket in 2018, compared with 18% in Sweden, according to CSIS.
According to the third quarter China Household Finance Survey by the China Household Finance Research Center of Southwest University of Finance and Economics, household assets and incomes have continued to improve, but the recovery remains slow.
04:49
China’s real estate debt crisis sparks anger as apartments remain unfinished
China’s real estate debt crisis sparks anger as apartments remain unfinished
According to the survey, total household debt continued to rise in the third quarter of last year, while the rate of return from wealth management products fell to -0.3%, worse than -0.1% in the previous three months. .
However, the sub-index for household assets and income expectations was 102.1, the second lowest since the second quarter of 2020.
The sub-index showing the employment outlook also fell below 100, indicating contraction for the third consecutive quarter, despite a slight improvement.
Downgrading consumption is the way to go
Pianos have recently suffered from a lack of middle-class spending.Sales surged, especially in Beijing and Shanghai, but many dealers and stores were forced to close last year.
Additionally, according to a report last week in Chinese digital media outlet Jiemeian News, sales have been declining since April last year, dropping to about 15% of their 2019 peak.
“Downgrading consumption is the way to go. I used to shop for affordable luxury brands. Now I only choose domestic brands for myself and my family,” Liu from Shenzhen added. Ta.
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