China’s influence in Russia deal proves Putin needs Xi even more

The paper said the Chinese government is using its significant influence over the Kremlin to secure a more favorable deal for a gas pipeline project vital to President Vladimir Putin’s political stability. financial times.

Moscow’s ambitious “Power of Siberia 2” project to link vast gas fields in Russia’s western Altai region with China is facing an unexpected setback. Mongolia’s Prime Minister Rubsan Namsulain Oyun Erdene, whose territory is at the center of cross-border infrastructure deals, said the project’s schedule could be at risk.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping has become Russian president amid sweeping Western sanctions and growing isolation from some of the world’s largest economies. It has provided meaningful political support.

But by leaning on his northern neighbor, Putin has deployed what many Kremlin watchers have warned is a dangerous overreliance on China’s economy and, most importantly, its political leadership.

The Power of Siberia 2, with about a third of the pipeline passing through Mongolia, has been a top priority for Russia for more than a decade and has been a major priority since Europe cut back on imports of Russian natural gas in 2022. It is receiving even more attention.

Once completed, the pipeline is expected to send 1.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to northern China. Its projected export capacity closely mirrors that of the Nord Stream pipeline, which supplied 1.9 trillion cubic feet of gas to Germany until it was sabotaged in 2022, and the culprit has yet to be identified. do not have.

Oyun Erdene previously said the 1,700-mile pipeline was scheduled to start this year, but he now believes Russia and China have not yet agreed on key details, casting doubt on the original schedule. He said that. F.T..

The newspaper reported on Sunday that one holdup was China’s intention to secure cheaper gas prices from Russia as part of the deal. The Chinese government wants to diversify gas supplies as part of its long-term plan for energy security, but another complicating factor is fluctuations in piped gas prices, which remain significantly lower than liquefied natural gas imports.

A significant delay would be a blow to Putin’s hopes of securing new markets for Russian gas in his expected re-election year. Russia’s Central Election Commission on Monday registered the country’s longtime leader as a presidential candidate for the March vote.

said Sergei Vakulenko, former strategic director of Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of the Power of Siberia 2 operator. F.T. Moscow was likely seeking more favorable payment terms from Beijing than those included in the 2014 Power of Siberia-1 contract.

Wei Xiong, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy in Beijing, told the paper that China’s local industry expects a surge in energy demand and hopes Power of Siberia 2 will be operational by 2030. He said that he is sending a message.

But since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Moscow’s economy has been supported primarily by expanding two-way trade with China, which reached $200 billion last year. This imbalance means that President Putin appears to have lost his influence in negotiations over the Power of Siberia-2.

in hong kong in november South China Morning Post The paper reported that China is now exerting greater influence over the project, even though both governments are still promoting the project as a symbol of cooperation between friendly countries.

Beijing’s hardline stance comes despite Mongolia’s efforts to arrange a tripartite summit to promote cooperation projects including new rail connections and economic corridors.

”[Our] Foreign Minister Oyun Erdene said at the Davos Economic Forum earlier this month that “the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is cooperating with various diplomatic channels to organize a summit meeting with Russia and China,” adding that the dates have not yet been agreed. said.

Oyun Erdene said the proposed China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor is part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to strengthen regional infrastructure connectivity, trade and investment flows. This will likely be the focus of discussion at the summit.