If Republicans abandon Ukraine, don’t expect Europe to follow America on China.
Beijing poses unique global challenges. The threat is not ideological like the Soviet Union, but economic. However, not all of America’s European partners share the US government’s threat perception. Far from it. Aside from expanding trade between Europe and China, French President Emmanuel Macron last year blocked NATO from opening a liaison office in Japan.
Simply put, Europeans are not too worried about what is likely to be perceived as tomorrow’s hypothetical war with China. Rather, Europe is more concerned that Russia will win the current war in Ukraine and that the conflict will spiral out of control beyond its own backyard and that America will be unable to help it.
Since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, President Putin has forever changed Europe’s security environment and Russia’s threat perception. Finland has joined NATO. Sweden is also following in its footsteps. The threat Russia poses to Eastern Europe, the Baltic Sea, and the Black Sea is real and immediate.
Whether the isolationist wing of the Republican Party likes it or not, Washington has been at the center of European security for more than a century.
In World War I, the United States tipped the balance of power in favor of the Allies in defeating the German Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire.
During World War II, Washington maintained London and Moscow in the fight against Nazi Germany. He did the same with China and with Japan. The United States, along with Britain and Canada, then raided the beaches of Normandy to liberate Western Europe, and then defeated the Empire of Japan in the Pacific.
After the war, America accounted for more than 50 percent of the world’s GDP. Washington financed the reconstruction of Europe, founded NATO, oversaw European integration, and defended the Alliance against Soviet imperialism and tyranny. The Communist Empire finally collapsed and the Republican Party won the Cold War for the free world.
When Yugoslavia disintegrated and the United Nations failed to avert genocide in Bosnia, Washington led an offensive against revivalist Serbs in Kosovo. When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was the United States, not Europe, that rallied the Ramstein Coalition of more than 50 members to support Kiev.
For more than a century, Washington has answered head-on, sometimes reluctantly, to the call of leadership that has fallen upon its shoulders. Other states cannot serve as the “arsenal of democracy.” It is no exaggeration to say that the specter of Trump’s second term as president hangs around Europe’s neck like the Sword of Damocles.
To be clear, for the first time since World War II, full-fledged state-on-state warfare has returned to Europe. President Joe Biden is arguably the best-suited American leader to fill Washington’s global leadership role since the end of the Cold War, but the United States, the backbone of European security, will remain inactive through 2024. There is.
The bulk of U.S. military aid to Ukraine is spent domestically to strengthen the U.S. defense industrial base and create good-paying manufacturing jobs for Americans. This aid has stalled. Unfortunately, Europe does not have the industrial capacity to make up for the shortfall.
On January 7, Sweden’s Minister of Civil Defense, Karl Oskar Bolin, declared that “war may also break out in Sweden.” The next day, the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, Michael Biden, also insisted that all Swedes must “mentally prepare” for war.
On January 19, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Europe must prepare for war with Russia within the next five to eight years. Similarly, on January 24, British Army Commander General Patrick Saunders said Britain needed to double the size of its armed forces and prepare for a mobilization operation not seen since 1945.
These fears are no secret. That’s not an exaggeration. Former President Donald Trump publicly stated that the United States would “never” support Europe if Putin attacked a NATO member.
We have seen this storm unfold before our eyes. Even in slow motion. Now, World War III is closer than ever. Instead of doing everything in their power to stop it, Congressional Republicans continue to ignore America’s role as world leader and play petty political games to suit Washington.
Yes, the situation at the US-Mexico border is a crisis of the highest order. Concerns that more than 2.4 million migrants will cross the border in 2023 are unacceptable and unsustainable. The Biden administration is open to reaching a deal. But on January 25, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) suggested that Congressional Republicans might hold off on reaching a compromise with Democrats.
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said former President Trump lobbied to scrap the deal. In this way, Republicans will continue to “problem solve” and blame President Biden for the border crisis throughout the 2024 campaign, and take credit for solving the problem if former President Trump wins. He argued that it could be done.
America is a great country. This kind of behavior is completely un-American.
The establishment of NATO and the emergence of the European Union would not have been possible without the leadership of Dwight Eisenhower. Not only did America’s involvement institutionalize peace and make Earth’s most violent and war-prone continent more stable, European stability also made other parts of the world more prosperous and secure.
The Russian Federation and Communist China, like Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and the Soviet Union before them, always wanted the same thing: to get America out of the way. With each passing day, former President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans appear poised to give them just that.
If America is on Europe’s side, everything is possible. It seems that success cannot be achieved without each other.
George Monastiliakos is an adjunct professor of law at the University of Ottawa. To read his work, www.monastiriakos.com. Follow him on Twitter @monastriakos.
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