Observers say Beijing is likely to continue to use its influence to seek a permanent ceasefire because it considers stability a priority, but divergent interests of the parties could complicate such efforts. It is pointed out that there is.
China brokers ceasefire in Myanmar, urges military junta and rebels to exercise ‘maximum restraint’
China brokers ceasefire in Myanmar, urges military junta and rebels to exercise ‘maximum restraint’
Zhou Shixin, a Southeast Asia expert at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said the fact that China was able to successfully broker a ceasefire during last month’s talks in Yunnan province shows that the warring sides are willing to talk, but that a ceasefire is unlikely. It didn’t last long, he said, and the ceasefire didn’t last long. Considering the unstable situation, it is easy to break.
“The time to peace is very short, the time to maintain peace is very short, so we’ve seen outbreaks happen very quickly after temporary settlements,” he said.
Zhou said the temporary settlement reached during the Yunnan talks meant the parties “basically had few additional demands” and therefore tensions could be further eased. Said it was expensive.
“So I think future breakouts could be regional or sporadic and limited in scope.”
Zhou said the Chinese government has “great patience and sincerity” in helping restore peace in Myanmar, but both the junta and the armed groups have high expectations for China’s role in the process. He says he is under pressure.
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Myanmar military junta extends state of emergency as it struggles to contain rebel groups
Myanmar military junta extends state of emergency as it struggles to contain rebel groups
Dan Seng Lone, executive director of the Myanmar-based Kachinland Research Center (KRC), said both the junta and the rebels see China as the only viable peacemaker, but Beijing is He said he could not meet the request.
“China cannot really influence the outcome of the negotiations,” he said, adding that no external force can meet the expectations of the parties at this point, as both sides have fallen into a “zero-sum game” mindset. Ta.
He added that public opinion would make it difficult for the rebels to accept a permanent ceasefire agreement with the junta. [military government]They’re going to have a lot to answer to people. ”
Trade between China and Myanmar has suffered since rebels launched attacks in October. China is Myanmar’s largest trading partner and major investor.
Meanwhile, the Three Brothers Alliance has vowed to protect Chinese assets during the conflict in a bid to win the trust of the Chinese government.
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Myanmar’s civil war lasted for three years, but what was China’s role in the conflict?
Myanmar’s civil war lasted for three years, but what was China’s role in the conflict?
“Due to the understanding between ethnic armed groups and the Chinese government, such projects have not been targeted so far,” she said.
Zhuang Guotu, a professor at Xiamen University who specializes in Southeast Asia, said a protracted conflict would affect China’s border security and long-term cooperation with Myanmar, but that the Chinese government would not be able to support either side for infrastructure projects. He said that does not mean that there is a need to follow the rules.
“We believe that only a fair solution to the Myanmar issue will benefit China’s Belt and Road project in the long run,” he added.
China, Myanmar vow to maintain border security as rebels claim victory
China, Myanmar vow to maintain border security as rebels claim victory
Many Naypyitaw residents suspect the Chinese government is supporting the rebel attack. According to the Irrawaddy news site, pro-junta media and supporters held rallies against China, accusing the Chinese government of supporting rebel groups.
Beijing has repeatedly said it will not interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs. In response to the pro-junta rally, China’s Foreign Ministry said any action that seeks to undermine friendly relations between China and Myanmar “will not succeed.”
Observers said there may be trust issues between China and the junta over the junta’s inaction in combating cross-border scams targeting Chinese citizens. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese are believed to have been lured to Myanmar with the promise of high-paying jobs, but were instead taken hostage and forced to work in operational centres.
Chinese officials visited Myanmar several times last year, calling on Nay Pyi Taw to work with Beijing to crack down on cybercrime.
But Fink said that while the Chinese government would appreciate the junta’s stance, it was “unlikely to change its overall assessment that the current junta is not doing a good job running the country.”
“China is dissatisfied” [junta leader] It is Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership,” she said. “Members of Myanmar’s parallel National Unity Government (NUG), established by elected politicians in 2020, are trying to persuade China to trust them.”
Myanmar’s shadow government, NUG, made up of elected officials ousted in a 2021 coup, said in an opinion last month that while upholding the “one China” principle, it should protect China’s domestic investments and proposed cooperation with the Chinese government on crimes committed by the Chinese government.
The NUG-backed People’s Defense Forces are also cooperating with the Three Brothers Alliance in localized attacks against the military regime.
Amara Tiha, a postdoctoral fellow specializing in Myanmar issues at the Oslo Peace Research Institute, said that although the junta’s forces were suffering from low morale, a “total collapse” was unlikely.
“If the current situation continues, we may see the emergence of a ‘rump state’ in the coming years, characterized by decentralization of power and various attempts at secession,” Tiha said.
“This fragmentation is perhaps a departure from what China wants. Indeed, there is a perception that China’s strategy is akin to ‘watching the fire burn from the other side of the river,’ and some have suggested that China may be following this approach.
He said China’s investments in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, including the deep port project, demonstrate a level of commitment and indicate that Beijing is likely to continue supporting “Myanmar’s de facto central government.” He pointed out that
Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met in Thailand for renewed talks on US-China relations. They also discussed Myanmar and agreed to hold a follow-up meeting to discuss the conflict in the country.
China demands border security guarantees from Myanmar as rebels gain strength
China demands border security guarantees from Myanmar as rebels gain strength
However, Tiha said the prospects for U.S.-China cooperation are low.
“For China, involving the US in discussions about Myanmar could be seen as an extension of US power. Tense Sino-US relations further complicate this possibility.”
Dan Seng Lone believes that “Western countries” cannot play a role in Myanmar’s peace process at this time, and the best the US and China can do is to keep Myanmar in a “2011 scenario”. He said the key is to reach mutual understanding to bring things back together. ”.
In 2011, the military regime that had ruled the country for decades began a series of democratic reforms and a transition to civilian leadership.
“If it’s possible, that’s the best scenario right now,” Dan Seng Loan said. “You open up to civilian leaders, you open up to the West…but that’s also really difficult right now.”