“The effectiveness of government fertility policies will be limited.Based on various market surveys, couples cite high economic costs as the main reason for having fewer children,” the EIU report said. .
On the other hand, China’s labor force population is also decreasing, with the working-age population aged 16 to 59 decreasing from 875.56 million in 2022 to 864.81 million last year, and due to the acceleration of automation and the retirement age. may lead to the postponement of says the report.
03:23
China’s birth rate is at record low despite government push to have more babies
China’s birth rate is at record low despite government push to have more babies
The EIU calculates that if China’s retirement age were raised to 65 by 2035, the pension budget shortfall could be reduced by 20% and net pension contributions could increase by 30%, making it easier for governments and households to There is hope for relief.
According to the EIU, by 2035, 32.7% of China’s population will be over 60 years old, up from 21.1% in 2023. The population aged 65 and over is also expected to increase from 15.4% last year to 25.1% by 2035. Added report.
“While this suggests an increased fiscal burden, it will also have a positive impact on demand in the healthcare sector and home spending, especially for individuals returning home after retirement,” the EIU said.
China’s demographic changes, as the working-age population shrinks and younger workers prefer service jobs, are causing manufacturers to increasingly look to machines and robots to fill the gap. It is also having an impact on factory operations.
The report also states that although China’s population is declining more rapidly than expected, it will remain the world’s second most populous country for the foreseeable future, ensuring a significant market size.
But analysts say India still has a large and growing pool of skilled workers, and it will be difficult for India to have the same demographic resources that supported China’s rapid economic growth and industrial sophistication. Ta.
As if the US had lost New Mexico: 6 takeaways from China’s 2023 population data
As if the US had lost New Mexico: 6 takeaways from China’s 2023 population data
However, demographers acknowledge that China’s population growth policies are unlikely to have any immediate effect, and many people want society to have a new population with a modern policy system and adequate service infrastructure. It asks us to conform to the norm.
He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Center, said existing difficulties remain the biggest deterrents, including a lack of childcare services, the financial pressure of caring for elderly parents, and the cost of housing and childcare. Stated.
In an article published in the latest issue of the journal Population and Health, he said low income levels and unstable expectations for employment and career development were also contributing factors.
Future population redistribution will be driven primarily by movement between urban areas, rather than from rural to urban areas.
The EIU said China’s demographic changes will also hinder its urbanization drive.
The report states that “future population redistribution will be driven primarily by inter-urban migration, rather than rural-to-urban migration, resulting in a gradual slowdown in urbanization rates.” ” he added.
By the end of 2023, China’s urbanization rate had reached 66%.
And since most Chinese already live in cities, rural populations will not decline as rapidly as they have in the past 20 years, and regional economic disparities will continue to draw people into metropolitan clusters. said Tianzhen Xu, deputy China economist at EIU. .