The time has come for the Chinese government to begin preparing for the unimaginable event of President Trump’s victory. If elected, his China policy would likely be steered by a team with a combative and confrontational “containment” view of China. Possible selections include Sen. Tom Cotton, who is spearheading the policy. Witch Hunt TikTok’s hearing was attended by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
The recent turmoil in Beijing is diplomatic re-engagement Dialogue with Washington is most constructive and necessary to strengthen our interests from the United States. Biden meeting Last November, he met with President Xi Jinping. It also signaled China’s intention to mend relations with Western countries, particularly businesses and investors in the United States and Europe, which are counting on Beijing’s support for economic recovery.
But this alone is not enough. First, the Chinese government must expand its multichannel diplomacy with the United States. If Trump wins, the White House and Pentagon will likely have no reason to cooperate. Back channels must be maintained by experienced technocrats and more balanced economic advisors outside the cabinet.
against belligerence As members of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese diplomats can reach out to more business-minded and globally-minded voices in Congress, keep communication channels open, and foster calm discussions. We have to try to connect.
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‘The door on China-US relations will never be closed again’: President Xi Jinping assures US companies
‘The door on China-US relations will never be closed again’: President Xi Jinping assures US companies
Furthermore, the Chinese government must make way for a truly private sector-led initiative. track 2 diplomacy Among academics, investors, entrepreneurs, artists and young people. Unwarranted government involvement will only exacerbate skepticism about so-called state capture and civilian-led infiltration.
There needs to be more exchange between regions, between cities, and even between people. International regional connections. Greater Bay Area President Trump is likely to curb federal funding for Central American engagement programs, and will need to strengthen California’s Bay Area or Shanghai and New York to allow for open and honest backchannel communication. .
Second, China must recognize that the “West” is not a monolith. Europe, Oceania and the UK remain important trading partners.President Trump’s isolationism, bellicose tendencies, and aid to Ukraine hanging by a threadBrussels is likely to recalibrate its relationship with the United States.
European countries are increasing their support for NATO efforts.Even Hungary’s Viktor Orbán had to do so. acquiesce It came under pressure from the leaders of France, Germany and Italy to ratify the $54 billion aid package for Ukraine.
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France and EU leaders urge China to ‘bring Russia to its senses’ and stop invasion of Ukraine
France and EU leaders urge China to ‘bring Russia to its senses’ and stop invasion of Ukraine
A poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in April last year found that 43% of respondents said China remains an essential partner for Europe, while 24% said it was a rival and 11% said it was an enemy. I answered.On top of that Electric vehicle (EV) and protectionist tendenciesmuch of Europe’s skepticism toward China stems from the perception that China tacitly supports Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
To dispel this, China should put more pressure on Russia and emphasize its willingness to cooperate with the European Union towards a wise end to the war. Beijing and Brussels should each work to bring leaders Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table.
A more nuanced stance on the war would allow Beijing to alleviate concerns of institutional investors in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia about the alleged war. geopolitical risk About doing business in China. By gaining goodwill in the Ukraine peace talks, China may be able to push for more mutually agreeable proposals to restore market access for Chinese EV companies in Europe.
A participant holds a flag supporting former President Donald Trump before an election event in Manchester, New Hampshire, United States, on January 20.Photo: Bloomberg
with Mr. Trump threatening tariffs If China’s export ratio is above 60%, Chinese manufacturers could benefit from strategic joint ventures in these regions, avoiding prohibitive and self-defeating barriers imposed by the United States. It will be. This will occur alongside efforts to build local partnerships in mining critical raw materials, generating renewable energy, research and development in artificial intelligence, and more.
Third, the best way to counter President Trump’s harsh policies is for China to regain its economic momentum on its own terms. It will not be easy, but given our many goals, including security and common prosperity, we must prioritize economic growth this year. youth unemployment and restore market confidence.
China’s economic outlook is brighter than it looks
Convocation third plenum It is particularly timely and focuses on empowering private enterprises, strengthening legal protection of property rights, and improving transparency and accountability of state-owned enterprises.
By clarifying the scope, limits, and procedures related to regulation and national security, we can steadily restore the confidence of domestic entrepreneurs and foreign investors. campaignalso shows that legally compliant consultancy firms can still operate on the mainland.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that Trump won’t win. Biden’s second term could be similarly bellicose toward China, but that seems unlikely given guardrails and recent efforts to build a foundation in the relationship.
Either way, China-US relations will remain fundamentally confused. But as long as China prepares for the worst and hopes for the best, this storm will pass.
Brian Wong is an Assistant Professor of Philosophy at the University of Hong Kong, a Rhodes Scholar, and a Strategic Advisor to the Oxford Global Society.
