According to the EIU, China is unlikely to see a clear increase in birth rates this year, mainly due to the country’s high youth unemployment rate and economic turmoil.
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“People hope for babies to be born in the Year of the Dragon, believing that their children will inherit exceptional leadership qualities, gather influence, and be able to achieve great personal success,” Pan said. told CNBC.
People in China also have this idea, but in reality, the country’s birth rate declined during the “Dragon Years.”
Compared to the previous year of the zodiac, China’s birth rate fell by more than 4% in 1988 and 2000, and by 9% in 2012, according to the country’s statistics bureau. Fertility rate refers to the number of babies born per 1,000 people per year.
In contrast, “there have been clear spikes in birth rates in the past.” [dragon years] and other parts of Asia,” said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank.
For example, Singapore’s birth rate rose by 21% in 1988 and by 8% between 2000 and 2012.
However, Mr Tay warned that Asian folklore may not be of much use in China’s declining birthrate, which could continue to decline “quite sharply”. China’s birth rate has been in a long-term decline, dropping from 22.37% in 1988 to 6.39% in 2023.
Tiancheng Xu, senior economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said China is unlikely to see a clear increase in births this year, mainly due to the country’s high youth unemployment rate and economic growth. They say it’s because of the confusion.
In 2021, China lifted limits on the number of children each household can have, with the aim of boosting the birth rate.
However, the birth rate in 2022 decreased from 7.52% in the previous year to 6.77%, compared to 8.52% in 2020.
According to monthly data, 14.9% of 16 to 24-year-olds in China, excluding students, were unemployed in December. In comparison, the overall unemployment rate in China’s urban areas was 5.1% in the same month.
University graduates flock to a job fair at Zhengzhou University in Henan Province, China, on September 22, 2023.
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Without a stable job and stable income, young people lack the confidence and financial security to have children.
“They tend to postpone big decisions like marriage and having children until their economic situation improves,” Xu told CNBC. “Erosion of household wealth will have a negative impact on total income.”
China is now the second most populous country, having been overtaken by India in 2023.
EIU told CNBC that the number of births 2024 could see a “slight increase” to just 9.7 million people. This is only an increase of 700,000 people over the previous year.
The company estimates that the number of births will peak at 11.57 million in 2025 and decline to an average of 10.2 million from 2026 to 2035, compared to an average of 15.7 million from 2011 to 2020. I predict that.
Marriage rates in China are also declining as young couples continue to prioritize their careers over starting families. And in many Asian societies, having a child out of wedlock is a big no.
According to the China Bureau of Statistics, there were only 6.8 million marriage registrations in 2022, down 10.5% from the previous year and 16% from 2020.
“Despite the temporary sharp decline, I think the downward trend will continue,” Maybank’s Mr. Tay said. “As Asian societies become more affluent, as people become more educated and focus on their careers, people tend to have fewer babies…This is observed in almost all developed Asian countries. I am.”
According to World Bank data, women make up about 45% of China’s workforce, higher than in developed Asian countries such as Singapore and Japan.
Singaporeans also believe that giving birth in the year of the Dragon is auspicious, which is why the country’s prime minister encourages couples to expand their families.
“Now is the perfect time for young couples to add a ‘little dragon’ to their family,” Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his Lunar New Year message on Friday.
“I hope my encouragement inspires more couples to try to have a baby, but I know the decision is a very personal one,” Ron said. .
Jacelyn from Yuan Zhong Siu said that in the Year of the Dragon, auspicious baby naming services increased by 15-20%, and consultations about auspicious wedding dates increased by 10-20%.
Busarawan Teeravichchanan, associate professor and co-director of the School of Social Anthropology at the National University of Singapore, said fertility rates are likely to see a “slight increase” in 2024, but will remain stable for the next few years. He said that it will continue to decline. CNBC.
Economists highlighted that the birth rate will reach an all-time low in 2022, down 8% from 2021, due to advances in society, rising prices and a growing desire for a “two-income, childless” lifestyle. .
The city-state was ranked the most expensive city in 2022 in the EIU’s annual survey.
Singapore’s birth rate hit an all-time low in 2022, down 8% from 2021.
Sekiat Island | E+ | Getty Images
EIU analyst Tang Wenwei warned that the number of births could rise this year, “but the increase may be even smaller.”
“Superstitious parents may still encourage their children to make extra efforts to have a baby in the Year of the Dragon. However, zodiac superstitions may not be the main factor in a couple’s decision to have a child. “Unlike in the past, where it could have been, it is playing a more important role today as a catalyst or motivating factor,” Wei told CNBC.