- Analysts say the Chinese military is conducting large-scale exercises involving civilian vessels.
- Michael Dahm writes that at least 39 merchant ships were recorded supporting the Chinese Navy in 2023.
- They are probably preparing for a possible invasion of Taiwan, Dahm wrote, but are not yet ready for it.
It is unlikely that China’s civilian warship fleet will be able to successfully invade Taiwan until at least 2030. Still, the Chinese government is making steady progress on this front, a senior analyst said.
The Chinese military conducted at least 33 exercises using commercial ships in 2023, but this was fewer than the 38 similar operations it conducted in 2022, said a retired U.S. intelligence officer and current senior researcher at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Michael Dahm, who serves as
But Dahm said in a report released Thursday by the China Maritime Research Institute at the U.S. Naval War College that at least six of the exercises last year involved coordinated participation of five or more ships, and that by 2022 It notes that there were only three such exercises in 2017.
One of the largest exercises in 2023 will involve 14 cargo ships capable of transporting up to 1,000 military vehicles and 2,000 soldiers over about three days, Dahm wrote.
These civilian ships are primarily used for transporting military assets, particularly for shore landings, especially during exercises along the Taiwan Strait, Dahm added.
Such ships are typically designed so that wheeled vehicles can be loaded onto and off the ship rather than being lifted on board.
Dahm wrote that last year was the first time the Chinese military was observed using large deck cargo ships. Usually, there are few vehicles that can be transported, but the number of vehicles is large.
“Deck cargo ships with open decks may not be suitable for long-distance voyages carrying military vehicles and personnel, but if the People’s Liberation Army needs to cross the Taiwan Strait or transport troops over short distances, may be a good and sufficient option,” Dahm wrote.
China also added that open-deck civilian vessels could be used as offshore landing pads for helicopters.
China ‘apparently’ creates military doctrine for civilian fleet
Using public sources such as satellite imagery and state television, Dahm documented 39 Chinese merchant ships supporting the Chinese navy over 812 ship days last year, but the majority of the activity happened at the end of summer.
In 2022, 36 civilian ships were used for the exercise over 733 ship days, Dahm said.
Although the exercise primarily involved ships arriving and departing from ports in China, it could also be used to simulate landings on Taiwan, Dahm wrote.
If the Chinese military were able to seize Taiwan’s ports, “civilian shipping, along with second-tier troops and logistics, could flood into Taiwan’s ports and harbors,” Dahm wrote.
Alternatively, civilian ships could be used to quickly transport military resources along China’s coast during a war, he added.
But Dahm also questioned whether China could successfully use its merchant fleet for an amphibious invasion anytime soon, at least without catastrophic casualties.
“At the time of this writing, a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030 would likely be a very risky endeavor for the People’s Liberation Army, and would likely result in very heavy losses, especially to the supporting merchant fleet,” Dahm said. is writing.
Still, China is making progress and finding ways to potentially reduce losses and risks, Dahm added.
“The People’s Liberation Army is clearly developing the necessary procedures and increasing its proficiency in using civilian vessels for logistics and amphibious operations,” he wrote.
The requisition of civilian ships for military use follows Britain’s practice of “occupation of ships by trade”, which used cruise ships, cargo ships and tankers to transport troops and supplies during the 1982 Falklands War. .
China has actively promoted direct cooperation between the civilian and military sectors in recent years, forcing high-tech and scientific industries to work directly with the People’s Liberation Army.
Cross-strait tensions have worsened as Beijing says it will eventually take back Taiwan by force if necessary. Meanwhile, the self-governing island elected William Lai Qingtoku in January, and his ruling party campaigned on the strong platform of resistance to China, causing an uproar.