Taiwan general election: China heightens doubts about the US with disinformation

This rumor was old but effective. Taiwanese people were being fed “toxic” pork imported from the United States.

For weeks, there have been other allegations that the Taiwanese government is secretly harvesting blood from its citizens and providing it to the United States to manufacture biological weapons to attack China.

Both were quickly debunked.

But this is a growing narrative in Taiwan ahead of Saturday’s presidential and legislative elections.

“Yimeirun,” or U.S. skepticism, questions the sincerity of Taiwan’s biggest ally and depicts Taiwan as a pawn to be exploited by the United States. Analysts say the ultimate goal is to drive a wedge between Taiwan and the United States, pushing the Taiwanese into China’s welcoming arms.

Disinformation researcher Yang Guang-shun, who coined the term in 2018, said, “There is a theory that the United States will not support Taiwan, or that it will abandon Taiwan in the event of war or if the situation is unfavorable to the United States.” It seems like that.” .

Disinformation experts say China is involved in spreading the messages and may even be crafting them. Evidence shows that Taiwan’s media and politicians are friendly to the Chinese government.

It’s not necessarily a conspiracy theory. In some cases, we may highlight news that paints the United States in a negative light or points to us as an untrustworthy superpower.

“For China, this is a battle for public opinion,” said Puma Shen, a Chinese disinformation expert in Taiwan.

“It’s more difficult to convince everyone that China is a better country, but it’s relatively easier to convince everyone that America has problems…That would be considered a success for China.”

When Taiwanese semiconductor giant TSMC expanded its operations in the United States, it was criticized as being coerced by the United States and a “hollowing out” of Taiwan’s resources. And US arms sales to Taiwan are seen as “cheating” Taiwan of money by sending unreliable weapons to Taiwan.

These were some of the 84 types of US skepticism think tank IORG found on Chinese-language media, social media, online forum PTT, and messaging platform LINE from 2021 to 2023.

The U.S. pork rumor began with an online post claiming, without any evidence, that the government was secretly passing off U.S. pork as Taiwanese pork. Weeks later, others made claims about toxic pork products from the United States, which were traced to an old debunked report in a pro-Beijing Hong Kong newspaper.

The idea that U.S. pork may be unsafe has been debated in Taiwan for years. But it was revived just in time for what appears to be a close presidential election.

The latest opinion poll shows William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leading the way over Hou Youxi of the Kuomintang (KMT) by just a few points. And Shen estimates that any disinformation campaign would only need to convince about 3% of voters to influence the election outcome.

In the run-up to the last election in 2020, Taiwan saw a wave of disinformation against the anti-Democratic Progressive Party, believed to have come from China. Although it ultimately failed, with President Tsai Ing-wen winning a second term in a landslide, it left many Taiwanese deeply uneasy.

But then the political situation changed. For one thing, tensions with China are rising. The Chinese government has repeatedly reinforced its goal of providing peace and reunification without ruling out the use of force.

And second, trust in the United States is waning.

Opinion polls show that Taiwanese still trust the United States far more than China. However, according to the annual Portrait of America survey conducted by Taiwanese academics, 45% of Taiwanese believe the United States is a trustworthy country in 2021, up from just 34% last year. Ta.

A separate survey by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation found that 51% of Taiwanese in their early 20s identify with U.S. skeptical rhetoric, the highest of any age group.

The pollster said one possible reason is that younger Taiwanese are more likely to be sent to the front lines in case of potential war.

Much of that can be attributed to America’s own actions. The disastrous troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the reluctance of a divided Congress to continue funding the war in Ukraine could lead to the US abandoning Ukraine or failing to intervene if China attacks. Analysts point out that this is leading to concerns in Taiwan.

Joe Shokan, the Nationalist Party’s vice presidential candidate who has encouraged U.S. skepticism by calling for closer ties with China in 2021, said, “If Taiwan doesn’t want to become a second Afghanistan, do we want war?” Please think clearly.” Or peace.”

Qihao Yu, author of the IORG study, said U.S. skepticism also played a role in “sowing” the doubts. “And if the United States makes a mistake, it will confirm previous suspicions.”

Like all propaganda and disinformation, American skepticism is fueled by fear, whether it’s about food safety or the threat of war.

But it also unearths something fundamental to the Taiwanese psyche: a decades-long anxiety about its relationship with the United States.

This is due to Taiwan’s “orphan mentality,” Yang said. “Taiwan has been a colony of many empires and has been relocated many times by previous rulers. Its historical perspective is always in the collective memory.

“But the most immediate catalyst was 1979.”

That was the year that the United States formally established diplomatic relations with China after months of secret negotiations, shocking the world and disappointing Taiwan. The United States severed official ties with Taipei by switching recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

However, at the same time, it passed a law that requires it to assist Taiwan in its defense. To this day, it maintains close unofficial ties with the island and sells weapons to it.

However, Yang said that the diplomatic rupture had planted the idea that “Taiwan might be abandoned by the United States again.” The wound was so deep that it inspired the Taiwanese hit song “Asian Orphan” in the 1980s. This song describes “orphans crying in the wind” as “In the east, the wind from the west sings a sad song.”

For this reason, U.S. skepticism often works in conjunction with pro-China rhetoric as a “push-pull force,” pushing Taiwan to increase its engagement with China to ensure peace, Yang said. added.

“If Taiwan is an orphan, it should be a prodigal son returning to a great country.” [of China]rather than remaining as a subsidiary of the United States. ”

Analysts say American reassurance is the best antidote to American skepticism.

“If our allies were more aware of the dangers of U.S. skepticism and could reiterate the positive aspects of our partnership… people would understand this. [relationship] That’s good for us,” Yu said.

“China does this all the time, talking about all the benefits that Taiwan is getting from China. But you don’t see much of that in U.S. policy messaging.”

The island is strengthening its anti-disinformation defenses with public education campaigns, reporting hotlines, and even an AI chatbot that flags fake news.

Taiwan’s parliament also considered an anti-disinformation law, which raised concerns that it would restrict press freedom.

Weiping Li, a researcher at the Taiwan Fact-Checking Center, an anti-disinformation group, said years of propaganda and disinformation have polarized society and increased distrust of facts.

“The problem is not so much disinformation as it is people’s attitudes towards information now…People will ask, ‘Can we even trust this?’ They judge the reliability of information based on party affiliation and political views. I will,” she said. .

As Taiwan gets better at defending itself, Shen warned, China will also get better at influencing discourse in more sophisticated ways.

The Taiwanese government’s constant warnings about the dangers of Chinese influence, combined with Beijing’s efforts to stigmatize criticism of China, have led to fatigue among ordinary Taiwanese, he said. Ta.

“Nowadays, some people will say, if we want to discuss China’s issues, why don’t we discuss American issues?”