Dhaka, Bangladesh – Hours after Bangladesh’s ruling Awami League party declared a landslide victory in Sunday’s elections boycotted by opposition parties, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hosted a procession of foreign diplomats who came to celebrate.
Special envoys from India, the Philippines, Singapore, and other countries were there. The ambassadors of Russia and China also visited the prime minister.
Meanwhile, in Washington and London, the British and American governments criticized the election as unfair. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement that Washington believes the voting process was “not free and fair and regrets that all political parties did not participate.” Britain criticized “intimidation and acts of violence” during the election.
What is Bangladesh’s reaction? Asked about the comments from the US and UK, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said on Tuesday: “We are not concerned.”
Political analysts and economists say the contrast between the West’s condemnation and the reception from China and Russia is a window into the potentially dramatic foreign policy implications of Hasina’s return to power. ing. For the West, Bangladesh’s rejection of election concerns, as well as Hasina’s growing ties with China and Russia, could worsen relations with Dhaka. But it may end up moving Dhaka even closer to Beijing and Moscow.
Dhaka-based political analyst Zahed-ur-Rahman believes the U.S. could impose visa restrictions or targeted sanctions on individuals who played a key role in conducting the election. Independent observers have criticized violence and intimidation against the ruling party. Political enemy. In August, the United States declared its first visa restrictions on some Bangladeshi officials.
But doing so could jeopardize US plans to include Bangladesh in a strategy to balance China’s rise, especially with Dhaka’s deepening economic ties with China, he said. China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for more than a decade, during which time Hasina has ruled uninterrupted.
“It will be very difficult for the new administration to align deeply with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, which is actually a policy of containing China,” Rahman said.
Meanwhile, Russia is helping Bangladesh open its first nuclear power plant. Dhaka received its first uranium supply from Moscow in October. Russia is also a major supplier of three essential goods to Bangladesh at relatively affordable prices: fuel, food grains, and fertilizers. “If the US-led Western countries adopt a very coercive attitude towards the new government, Bangladesh-Russia relations will deepen rapidly,” Rahman said.
Experts said this geopolitical calculation poses challenges for Western countries. It will be difficult for the United States and its allies to engage in business-as-usual relations with Bangladesh. However, it is unclear how far they will go to try to undermine Hasina’s government.
Ali Riaz, a political scientist and professor at Illinois State University, said Western countries “will face a serious dilemma.”
But Bangladesh also faces difficult choices.
The country’s apparel industry, which employs 4 million workers, will record exports worth $47 billion in 2023, representing 84% of the country’s total exports. The United States is the largest export destination for Bangladeshi clothing.
But recently, eight members of the U.S. Congress sent a letter to the American Apparel and Footwear Association to pressure Dhaka on fair wages and worker rights in Bangladesh. Several workers were killed in clashes with security forces during street protests demanding an increase in the minimum wage. The Bangladesh embassy in Washington has warned the country’s government in Dhaka that the country’s ready-made garment sector could be targeted by Western measures.
Economist Mustafizur Rahman has similar concerns. Rahman, a distinguished researcher at the Dhaka-based Center for Policy Dialogue, told Al Jazeera: “If the US and the EU take any punitive measures in the form of additional tariffs or sanctions, then of course there will be a negative impact.” Bangladesh’s dependence on garment exports makes it particularly vulnerable to such targets, he said.
And the resulting economic turmoil will only push Bangladesh further towards China. “This is not because Western countries may increase pressure or recalibrate their policies, but because the ongoing economic crisis requires abundant financial aid, and both countries are “This is because of the growing ideological affinity between the leadership.” University.
In Dhaka, Awami League spokesman Mahbubul Alam Hanif insisted Sunday’s election would not affect the government’s relations with the West.
“We have development partners and they often come up with proposals like strengthening democracy, but I don’t think Sunday’s election will affect the U.S.-Bangladesh relationship,” Hanif said. Told.
How the re-elected Awami League government handles post-election politics may also determine the pressure on the United States and its allies to act against Bangladesh.
More than 27,200 members of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party have been jailed since mid-August last year, and at least 104,000 have been charged with other charges, according to BNP figures. At least 27 BNP men have also been killed in political violence since October.
Awami League won a super-majority in parliament, winning 222 out of 300 seats, and many of the more than 60 victorious independent members were allegedly asked by the ruling party to participate in the election to stage a sham contest. former lawmaker and opposition leader said the government would further target them.
BNP leader Qaiser Kamal said the “rogue” government would intensify its crackdown on the opposition to divert attention from the “fake” elections.
Rias agreed. “Bangladesh is becoming a de facto one-party state,” he said. He said the government will “adopt more repressive measures and seek to crush all types of opposition through legal and extra-legal measures.”