Taiwan Elections: The island will soon elect a new president. What’s at stake and how will China respond?

CNN
—

All eyes will be on Taiwan this Saturday as voters choose a new leader in the shadow of a China that has grown increasingly threatening and assertive over the island over the past eight years.

The world will be watching not only to see who wins the election, but also to see how democratic Taiwan’s authoritarian neighbors respond. There, Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader in a generation, said the unification of Taiwan and the mainland was a “historical necessity” and should be achieved by force if necessary.

The last time there was a regime change in Taiwan, when the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took power in 2016, the Chinese government cut off most communications with Taipei, and for several years thereafter imposed economic and economic restrictions on Taiwan. The situation on Taiwan changed dramatically as diplomatic and military pressure was significantly increased. The Taiwan Strait has become one of the world’s major geopolitical flashpoints.

China’s ruling Communist Party considers Taiwan part of its territory, even though it has never ruled it. While successive leaders of the Chinese Communist Party have vowed to ultimately achieve “unification,” President Xi has repeatedly said that the Taiwan issue “should not be passed down from generation to generation,” and he has emphasized that mission by mid-century. It has been linked to the goal of “national reconstruction.”

“This election marks a change in leadership at a time of heightened cross-strait tensions and increased challenges to maintaining stability,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group. ” he said.

“A conflict involving Taiwan is unlikely to occur in the near future. But if it were to occur, its impact would be felt all over the world,” Hsiao said.

All three candidates have pitched themselves as the best choice to avoid an apocalyptic scenario, pledging to maintain peace and the status quo. Polls consistently show that’s what most people in Taiwan want.

But the three have very different visions of how to achieve that goal. They all cite the need to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses to deter Chinese aggression, but they disagree on policy priorities, particularly on how to deal with China.

Current Democratic Progressive Party Vice President Lai Ching-toku has emphasized strengthening Taiwan’s ties with like-minded democratic partners such as the United States and Japan, while maintaining his administration’s position that Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign nation. However, this is a view that the Chinese government finds difficult to accept.

Hou Youxi of the main opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) is placing greater emphasis on resuming dialogue with China and easing tensions.

Meanwhile, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) leader Ko Wen-ji has called for a more “realistic” approach to finding “a new way out of the U.S.-China conflict,” but he is not sure what that means. is not very clear. Practice.

Beijing’s response could change depending on the election results, but experts say China’s “unification” plans are a dead start for the majority of Taiwan’s 24 million people, so who will come to power Regardless of the situation, tensions are likely to escalate further in the future.

In addition to threats from the Chinese government, livelihood issues such as low wages, high real estate prices and Taiwan’s slowly growing economy are expected to be key factors in how voters vote.

China has made no secret of its preference for close elections, and views elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”

The Chinese government openly despises the Democratic Progressive Party and Mr. Lai, who once called himself a “practical figure for Taiwanese independence.” Although he has taken a moderate stance in support of the status quo, the Chinese government continues to denounce him as a dangerous separatist.

On Wednesday, the China Taiwan Affairs Office urged Taiwanese voters to “recognize the extreme danger of Lai Chingde provoking cross-strait confrontation and conflict” and “make the right choice at the crossroads of cross-strait relations.” ” he warned.

A victory for Mr. Lai, who has a narrow lead in opinion polls, could soon result in increased economic or military pressure from China.

“In the short term, China is likely to try to exert maximum pressure to set the terms of cross-strait negotiations over the next four years,” said Wenty, an Atlantic Council global fellow based in Taiwan.・Mr. Son says. China hub.

This could include “fierce diplomatic rhetoric criticizing the incoming Democratic Progressive Party government, economic sanctions against targeted exports, and increased use of military means in gray zone areas as a way to express Beijing’s dissatisfaction.” He said that there is.

“Gray zone” tactics refer to aggressive state actions that do not amount to war, and China has increasingly used them in recent years in both the South China Sea and Taiwan.

According to Xiao, if the victorious Lai delivers an inaugural speech in May that does not meet Beijing’s demands, China may reserve a stronger response for a later date.

The world will be watching the level of escalation.

In August 2022, China held large-scale war games around Taiwan to show its dissatisfaction with then-Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. In its biggest show of force in years, Beijing fired missiles into the waters around the island and simulated a blockade with fighter jets and warships.

Taiwan’s security officials on Thursday cited unsuitable winter weather conditions, China’s economic problems and efforts by China and the United States to stabilize relations after a bilateral summit in November. said he did not expect any major military action by China.

If Mr. Lai wins, it will be the first time in Taiwan’s democratic history that a political party will win a third term in power, but this is because China’s strong-arm tactics under the Xi administration have persuaded Taiwanese voters of Taiwan’s democracy. This is a strong indicator that your efforts to persuade them to give up will be ineffective. Democratic Party.

But analysts say the Democratic Party is unlikely to secure a majority in the new parliament, which is also due for elections on Saturday, and could lead to serious gridlock in policy-making, especially on controversial issues. There is.

“The checks that the Legislative Yuan is likely to impose on the Democratic Progressive Party’s new president should give Beijing some reassurance about what the Lai government can do,” Xiao said.

Beijing’s most likely candidate is Mr. Hou of the Kuomintang Party, which traditionally favors close ties with China.

Hou accused the Democratic Progressive Party of provoking China and vowed to resume dialogue and repair economic relations with China.

He promised to restore a controversial trade deal with China that sparked mass student-led protests in 2014 during the previous Kuomintang government.

His election may temporarily ease tensions, but experts say that will not last long.

“After an initial period of improved relations, the Chinese government will continue to seek further progress in relations, which could be in the form of new economic agreements or further political consideration by the Kuomintang government,” Xiao said. Stated.

“And at that point, I think it’s going to be very difficult for the Hou government to sell that to Taiwanese voters. There’s also a good chance that tensions will rise again.”

Although Hou is clearly opposed to Taiwan’s independence, he also rejects the “one country, two systems” model proposed by China for unification. The proposal lost all appeal in Taiwan following Beijing’s crackdown on the freedoms of Hong Kong, which former colonial power Britain returned to China under the same framework in 1997.

“Like mainland China and the United States, Taiwan must take responsibility and follow its own path to bring peace and stability to the region,” Hou said in response to a question from CNN on Thursday.

He described his position, which rejects both Taiwan’s independence and Beijing’s “one country, two systems” model, as “the ‘middle path’ that Taiwan should take.”

Even if Mr. Hou wins, experts say it is unlikely that cross-strait relations will return to the friendly era of former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou, when the Kuomintang was last in power.

A lot has changed since Ma’s time.

Amid the threat from China, Taiwanese people are resolutely distancing themselves from China. Currently, less than 10% of people support immediate or final unification, and less than 3% of people think he is primarily Chinese. The geopolitical context has also changed dramatically, and China and the United States are engaged in intensifying strategic competition.

Meanwhile, TPP’s Mr. Koh advocates an alternative “centrist” stance, portraying himself as a political outsider and a sensible alternative to the two established parties.

As a former mayor of Taipei, Mr. Ke promoted local relations with China, especially the city of Shanghai, saying that “both sides of the Strait are one family.”

However, Song pointed out that Ko is a “new face” in the U.S.-China great power competition.

If he is elected president, Taiwan’s relations with China and the wider world will enter uncharted territory.

“Mr. Ko has a history of strategic ambiguity in U.S.-China policy, which will lead to friendship between the two sides,” Song said.

“The Chinese and U.S. governments are likely to give the incoming Ko Wenji government an initial grace period, where they will give them a huge advantage to clear their suspicions. It depends on how the administration handles its own foreign policy and cross-strait policy.”