WASHINGTON (AP) – U.S.-China relations will face their biggest test since the two countries’ summit in November, as the United States tries to maintain calm in the Taiwan Strait after a military clash between the two countries. others choose a new president this weekend.
Peace and stability in the 110-mile-wide (177-kilometer-wide) sea between mainland China and the self-governing island is at stake. An armed conflict could put the US and Chinese governments in direct conflict and disrupt the global economy.
China is concerned that a victory for its front-runner in Saturday’s general election could be a step toward independence, suggesting Taiwan’s voters could be forced to choose between peace and war.
Regardless of which presidential candidate wins, Washington stands ready to work with both Taipei and China to avoid miscalculations and escalating tensions, officials and sources said.
A senior White House official said the United States will keep channels of communication open with China to “reinforce both our support for Taiwan’s democratic process and our strong commitment to peace, stability, and maintaining the status quo.” He said he will continue to stay in close contact with them. The official spoke to reporters Thursday on condition of anonymity about the plan.
President Joe Biden is send an unofficial delegation Immediately after the election, former high-ranking officials moved to the island. The United States has no formal relations with Taiwan, and sending an official delegation there would infuriate Beijing, which considers the island to be Chinese territory.
The official predicted a “period of heightened tensions” ahead and said the United States was preparing for a range of reactions from Beijing, from no response to military action, depending on the election outcome.
Saturday, An island with a population of 23 million people A new president will be elected to replace Tsai Ing-wen, who has served two terms.The election is attracting high attention as the Chinese government opposes the front-runner. Lai Chinte, a candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party known for its pro-independence learning. This has raised concerns that Mr. Lai’s victory could trigger a military response from the mainland.
Beijing is vowed to unify with Taiwan, forcefully if necessary. Any military action could involve the United States, which provides munitions and technology to Taiwan under security agreements.
The U.S. government does not take sides when it comes to Taiwan’s sovereignty, but it opposes unilateral changes to the status quo by either side. There is no official preference given to any candidate.
Biden, when Meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping In California in November, he emphasized the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Xi pressed Biden to support China’s peaceful unification with Taiwan, saying “the Taiwan issue remains the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations.”
Regardless of who wins Saturday’s general election, the U.S. government will work with Taiwan’s new government to strengthen ties and focus on deterring military aggression by Beijing, lawmakers and observers said.
“The United States will exchange notes with Taiwan to maintain stability and help Taiwan continue to be resilient,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program.
“No matter who wins, the American people will support the people of Taiwan and our vibrant and beautiful democracy,” Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi said Wednesday in a debate sponsored by Politico. “And it’s on a bipartisan basis.” He is the No. 1 Democrat on the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Communist Party of China.
Kentucky Republican Rep. Andy Barr said in the same debate that all political parties in the United States and Taiwan believe in deterrence. “No matter who wins this election, we will work together to re-establish and strengthen deterrence,” Barr said.
Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and director of China Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Taiwanese’s overwhelming support for the status quo means that U.S. policy will largely remain in place no matter who wins the election. He said that it means that.
“No one wants to start a war, and the current situation is minimally acceptable to almost everyone, whether in Taiwan, mainland China or the United States,” Kennedy said.
Rory Daniels, managing director of the New York-based Asia Society Policy Research Institute, said all of Taiwan’s presidential candidates believed that strong ties with the United States would provide a strong defense against Beijing’s hostile takeover of the island. He says he has come to think that it will act as a deterrent.
Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-de (also known as William) is greeted by supporters during a campaign in Taiwan’s Taoyuan district ahead of the presidential election, Thursday, January 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Louise Delmotte, File)
If elected, Mr Lai is unlikely to shake things up Under Tsai, the party has proven wise and pragmatic by taking drastic steps towards statehood, observers say.
“Tsai has built a positive image in Washington,” said John Dotson of the Global Taiwan Institute, a Washington-based think tank. “She turned out to be a very moderate in her public office.”
Tsai has infuriated Beijing by refusing to recognize Taiwan as part of China, but has also refrained from moving toward declaring independence. It is hoped that Mr. Rai will also follow in her footsteps. Dotson said the U.S. government is likely to view Lai’s appointment as president as “Tsai’s third term.”
But Lai’s victory could provoke an angry response from Beijing, including military exercises near the island. Experts say Beijing is likely to exercise restraint, especially after the meeting between Biden and Xi in November, as it wants to protect U.S.-China relations.
The challenge for Taipei and the U.S. government will be how to deal with Beijing’s fears that Taiwan may be “moving closer to independence,” said Daniels of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Mr. Lai is narrowly trailing Hou Youxi, candidate of the opposition Kuomintang Party.Beijing accused of raising wages influence campaign Premier Hou considers Taiwan to be part of China, but not necessarily under Beijing’s rule. But given that popular opinion on the island overwhelmingly supports the status quo, observers say a victory for the KMT is unlikely to overturn U.S. policy.
If Mr. Hou is elected, Washington, which has a history of working with the KMT, stands ready to engage with him to continue to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, and the easing of cross-Strait tensions that would result from his election would lead to stronger ties with Taiwan. It may be possible to strengthen the relationship with Brian Hart, a China Power Project fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the United States needs to focus on other issues.
The warming of cross-Strait relations could bring new complications to U.S.-China relations. “There will be more adjustments to be made,” Daniels said. But Beijing is likely to put pressure on the Kuomintang government to move toward unification, and Washington could help Hou deal with that pressure, he said.
The third candidate is Go Wen Jae A member of the newly formed Taiwan People’s Party, he could pose the biggest challenge to the U.S. government if elected. Although his party has not yet tested and forged a relationship with Washington, observers have noted that Mr. Koh has expressed interest in working with the United States.
“The Biden administration has gone out of its way not to have a priority,” Hart said. “Whoever wins, there’s a chance. The United States isn’t really going to consider this.”
“From an American perspective, what we want from Taiwan at a higher level is to invest in Taiwan’s defense to deter Chinese aggression,” Hart said.