For far-flung, financially-strapped Pacific nations, switching diplomatic allegiances means weighing what benefits they can derive from diplomatic disputes rather than choosing to decisively side with China. It simply reflects a long-standing strategy.
The view from Beijing is even clearer.
“From the Chinese side, I think this can be called a diplomatic victory,” says Osaka Gakuin University professor Izumi Kobayashi, president of the Japan Pacific Islands Association.
Australia pledges support to strengthen diplomatic relations in East Timor region
Australia pledges support to strengthen diplomatic relations in East Timor region
However, as it is an island nation, “there are power relations based on geographical ties, and there are no political parties or political ideologies within the country,” he added.
“So, even if it’s Taiwan, [mainland] “We will give preferential treatment to the country that provides the most aid, whether it is China or any other country,” he said.
This is not the first time Nauru has exchanged diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The country, with a population of less than 13,000, also recognizes other disputed areas in southern Europe, but maintained formal relations with Taipei until 2002, then switched to Beijing until 2005, then again. I switched.
But that recent turnaround was preceded by financial difficulties. Last year, Australia announced it would cut the funding it gives Nauru to set up a migrant detention center, leaving an A$125 million (US$82.5 million) hole in its budget.
Taiwanese media reported in January that Nauru had asked Taipei for help in bridging the gap, but Taipei switched to Chinese recognition before responding.
Nevertheless, the money weighs heavily on the foreign policies of Pacific countries, creating room for the United States and China to intervene in so-called dollar diplomacy.
According to the institute’s report, the Chinese government is said to have provided $8.5 million in development funds to the Solomon Islands in exchange for severing relations with Taipei, and that the Chinese government’s aid to both Kiribati and the Solomon Islands is It is said that the number has increased since switching alliances.
“It could make sense to switch diplomatic relations in exchange for promised development, trade and other aid,” said Mihai Sola, a researcher at the Lowy Institute.
‘Taiwan card’: Island’s growing strategic value tests Beijing’s diplomatic tactics
‘Taiwan card’: Island’s growing strategic value tests Beijing’s diplomatic tactics
Given that Pacific countries typically act based on regional agreements, Beijing’s policy of not formally engaging with countries that recognize Taiwan is an “obstacle” to China’s ambitions in the Pacific. he said.
“The concern for traditional security partners in the Pacific like Australia and the United States is what happens next. This switch could be a precursor to closer ties in other areas, such as security. nature, which has an immediate impact on the regional balance of power.”
China has sought to increase its security presence in Oceania, but its proposals have not always been welcomed or successful. In 2022, the Chinese government signed a controversial police cooperation agreement with the Solomon Islands, alarming both Washington and Canberra.
This week, Papua New Guinea’s Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko confirmed that China had approached him with a similar offer of security cooperation and that the two countries were in early talks.
China and Papua New Guinea discuss post-riot security and security cooperation
China and Papua New Guinea discuss post-riot security and security cooperation
However, while China has had some success with bilateral agreements with individual countries, engaging with island states as a bloc has proven difficult. In 2022, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was unable to secure collective buy-in from Pacific nations for a wide-ranging agreement covering everything from military policy to fisheries.
In 2021, Chinese companies in the Solomon Islands were targeted when protests over the decision to sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan turned violent. The talks between the Chinese government and Papua New Guinea followed riots in Papua New Guinea’s capital Port Moresby in January, in which two Chinese nationals were injured and several Chinese-owned properties were looted.
“China, like European countries, needs police cooperation with Pacific countries to protect their own citizens living there,” said Yu Lei, a senior researcher at Liaocheng University’s Pacific Island Research Center.
But China’s foreign policy goals in the region aim to “serve national interests arising from economic cooperation, investment and trade” rather than engaging in hegemonic competition, he said.
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China and US propose competing security visions for the Asia-Pacific region at security forum
China and US present competing security visions for the Asia-Pacific region at security forum
Mr Kobayashi said in Osaka that Australia was also a loser as Nauru’s alliance shifted to China.
“The islands are not happy that Australia still looks down on them as if they were colonies.Therefore, they would like to not only rely on support from Australia but also accept support from other countries. ”, citing the United States, Japan, and China.
“However, no matter how diplomatically China infiltrates these island nations, its foundation as a nation that cooperates with the United States and Australia will not be undermined.”