— President Biden, In a speech to the United Auto Workers UnionJanuary 24th
“Biden has imposed an outlandish requirement that 67 percent of all new cars must be electric within 10 years. That means Michigan and the places that make cars can forget about it. Forget it, let the unions work. All those cars are going to be built in China. … There can’t be a just transition that destroys over 100,000 auto manufacturing jobs. ”
— Former President Donald Trump, with video addressJanuary 24th
Get ready for a split-screen presidential election.
As Mr. Biden seeks re-election and Mr. Trump attempts to return to his old office, voters will be bombarded with constant claims and counterclaims about each man’s performance during his time as president.
When Biden addressed the UAW last week and accepted its support, he claimed that Trump ignored China’s push for electric vehicles and lost auto industry jobs during his presidency. Meanwhile, President Trump has attacked Biden’s green energy policies aimed at promoting widespread acceptance of electric vehicles, saying these policies will undermine auto manufacturing as China seeks to dominate the market anyway. He said it would take away jobs. He accused the UAW, which has reached contractual agreements with automakers to ensure the transition to an electric vehicle world, of accepting myths about electric vehicles and urged workers to leave the union. “You shouldn’t pay your dues because they’re going to sell you to hell,” Trump said.
How are their records kept?
Automatic job record contrast
First, let’s consider the issue of employment. This data point is easily found through the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note that Biden said, “Tens of thousands of auto jobs were lost across America during President Trump’s term.” Technically, if you include jobs in the auto retail industry, that’s true. Those jobs fell by 78,000 from February 2017 to February 2021, according to the bureau. Employment in automobile and auto parts manufacturing increased slightly over the same period, by 300 people.
The White House uses the period from January 2017 to January 2021 to estimate that 87,000 auto jobs were lost under the Trump administration, including nearly 9,000 manufacturing jobs. The number is calculated. The presidential oath of office will be taken on January 20th. However, for the Current Employment Survey, employers report data to the Bureau of Labor Statistics for a pay period that includes the 12th of each month before a new president takes office. Therefore, the first pay period after a new president takes office will actually be in February, not January. The bureau says there is no right or wrong way to do this, and economists differ on the best starting point. Fact Checker will begin compiling presidential history starting with February data.
Note that President Trump’s employment numbers include 2020, when the world was hit by the coronavirus pandemic. If you trace President Trump’s career from February 2017 to February 2020, just before the pandemic collapsed the U.S. economy, the numbers change dramatically. This represents an increase of 34,100 jobs in auto manufacturing and 36,400 jobs in auto retail for a total of more than 70,000 jobs over the three-year period. That’s a fairer way to look at President Trump’s record in the auto industry.
But there were certainly signs of stress in auto manufacturing in early 2020. Almost forgotten now, the U.S. economy was in the doldrums just before the pandemic, despite President Trump’s constant touts about having created the best economy in history. Approximately 26,000 jobs were lost in the auto manufacturing industry from February 2019 to February 2020, indicating that the manufacturing industry entered a recession in 2019. Biden is correct that all six manufacturing plants were closed before the pandemic.
Biden has now been president for roughly the same amount of time Trump was at the start of the pandemic. The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is from December 2023, and when comparing his first three years directly, Biden has fared much better so far. Approximately 125,000 jobs were created in auto manufacturing and 129,000 in auto retail, an increase of about 254,000 jobs during Biden’s presidency.
Biden vs. Trump on electric cars
Biden is right that President Trump did not encourage the production of electric vehicles or try to counter China’s massive investment in electric vehicle technology. President Trump has occasionally mistakenly joked about how little electric cars can go on a single charge. He proposed eliminating programs that incentivize the manufacture and purchase of electric vehicles, and proposed no legislation to encourage EV manufacturing in the United States.
Even now, with the European Union mandating the sale of only new zero-emission cars by 2035, President Trump appears to be rooted in fossil fuel technology, saying in a video speech: “We’re sitting on liquid gold and we’re going to phase out the internal combustion engine.” ”, he complained. ” He doubts the U.S. will produce the batteries that power EVs, giving China an advantage.
The Chinese government aims to dominate the EV industry and is giving the industry huge subsidies. In the final quarter of 2023, Chinese company BYD, which once made cell phone batteries, overtook Tesla as the world’s largest battery-powered carmaker.
Biden administration officials cite legislation passed during his presidency to combat the rise of China’s EV market. Bipartisan Infrastructure Act ($7.5 billion to promote EV charging, including building a network of high-speed chargers). The Chip and Science Act (provides $39 billion in semiconductor manufacturing incentives, including $2 billion for older chips used in automobiles and defense systems) and the Inflation Control Act (IRA) (provides tax credits for EVs and domestically produced batteries). Providing incentives) production).
As a result, automakers have invested billions of dollars in the production of electric vehicles and batteries. In the 12 months after the Anti-Inflation Act was passed, $93 billion in announced EV investments and about 85,000 jobs were made, according to a report released in August by the Environmental Defense Fund. . Goldman Sachs said in a December research note that as a result of the law, the U.S. could become self-sufficient in EV battery production, including mining, parts and battery production, by 2030.
In April, Biden proposed tougher emissions standards that could result in two out of every three new cars sold by automakers to be electric within 10 years. The Department of Energy announced $2 billion in grants and $10 billion in loans to automakers and suppliers to help them transition to electric vehicles.
Contrary to President Trump’s statement that Biden has already imposed the mandate, the Environmental Protection Agency has not released any final regulations. Auto dealers sent a letter to Biden saying EVs are in oversupply and cannot meet the proposed requirements.
EV sales have increased for 14 consecutive quarters, according to Cox Automotive, which owns an automotive research and evaluation company. Kelley Blue Book, but it still accounts for only 7.6% of total sales. “The U.S. EV market is still growing, but it’s not growing as fast,” Cox said, predicting the EV share could exceed 10% this year.
Trump’s press secretary did not respond to repeated questions about the source of his claim that 100,000 jobs would be lost due primarily to the shift to electric vehicle sales. Trump was likely referring to a 2021 report from the Economic Policy Institute that found that without sufficient government investment, the auto industry could lose 75,000 jobs in the transition to EV sales. It is thought that there may be.
“I would argue that the IRA has absolutely done a lot to move us significantly away from the 2021 ‘base case’ in terms of preparing the U.S. auto sector for growth with the EV transition. Jobs were lost,” said Josh Bivens, a co-author of the report and the institute’s chief economist. “The Biden administration is certainly on track to prevent these job losses.”
Mr. Biden’s track record on electric vehicles compares favorably with Mr. Trump’s. He can point to three major laws passed aimed at boosting EV sales and boosting domestic semiconductor and battery production. Automotive employment is booming under the Biden administration, with auto manufacturing employment at its highest level since 2006. He’s making a big bet that, like Europe and China, the U.S. will move to primarily EV sales over the next decade. It remains to be seen whether that bet will pay off and whether the auto industry will be able to survive the transition without major disruption.
Meanwhile, as president, Trump largely ignored growing consumer interest in electric vehicles. He is furious that Biden’s pro-EV actions will result in massive job losses and that China will win the EV race anyway. He has provided no evidence for his claims, an oddly passive response for someone who has consistently warned about the U.S. trade deficit with China during his presidency.
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