Sunday, November 24, 2024

China-India trade tensions could continue into 2024, but Beijing doesn’t want to shake things up

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India’s imports of Chinese laser machines totaled US$174.57 million in 2022, according to calculations by the Post using data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

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And data shows that India imported Chinese laser machines worth USD 167.93 million in the first 10 months of 2023, up from USD 147 million in the same period last year.

From September, India has launched a series of anti-dumping investigations into Chinese-made products such as vacuum-insulated flasks, tempered glass, frameless glass mirrors and retractable drawer sliders.

India is targeting at least 32 types of Chinese products, including consumer goods, machinery and chemical products.

Meanwhile, the Beijing Ministry of Commerce is conducting two investigations into insecticide ingredients and pigments and insecticide ingredients from India.

Increased dependence on India is doing well for China, but Beijing doesn’t want to shake things up

Alicia Garcia-Herrero

In February, the Chinese government also ruled that Indian phthalocyanine pigments constituted dumping and imposed tariffs ranging from 11.9% to 30.7%.

Dumping is typically seen during the normal trade process when goods enter a country’s market at a price below their normal value in the exporter’s domestic market.

“[A trade war] That is unlikely as India’s dependence on China continues to grow. India’s deficit is ballooning, but imports from places like the US and Europe are more expensive,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis.

“Trade relations are not symmetrical. China is better off by becoming more dependent on India, and Beijing is reluctant to shake things up for fear that India will become risk-averse like the US and EU. I do not want.”

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Despite the tensions, the popularity of Chinese products in India remains strong, with a survey by community network LocalCircles finding that 55% of 7,000 Indians surveyed said they had purchased a Chinese product in the past year. Media reported this earlier this month.

According to the survey, smartphones, smartwatches and power banks were the most popular Chinese products.

The study also found that despite the impact of anti-China sentiment and increased competition from homegrown brands, Chinese-made small appliances and accessories remain the preferred option for Indian consumers.

There has been a widespread thaw in relations since the two countries agreed at the BRICS summit in August to prioritize further de-escalation of tensions on their Himalayan border. Deadly clashes of 2020. India and China make up the five-nation bloc along with Brazil, Russia, and South Africa.

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India is also a member of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, a US-led strategy to exclude China from key supply chains.

A concern for India is the sharp increase in its trade deficit with China, which in 2022 will increase by 89% from the previous year to $83 billion, accounting for one-third of the total trade deficit.

China’s trade with India increased by 0.8% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2023, accounting for more than 86% of the total export value of $124.3 billion, with a trade surplus of $90.27 billion.

At the G20 meeting in New Delhi in August, India’s Trade and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal asked how China could “supply goods at a lower rate than the cost of raw materials.”

Indian exports are substitutable and have low profits.

Divya Murali

Divya Murali, a research analyst at the South Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore, also said the current trade probe is a viable way for India to address its concerns.

“China did not resort to retaliatory measures, but [which] “India’s move showed that it was not an escalation in the first place,” Murali said.

Renu Singh, a researcher at the Institute of Emerging Markets at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said the trade deficit is due to China exporting value-added intermediate goods such as electronics, while India exporting resource-intensive primary products. He said that this is caused by the fact that there are Products such as petroleum products, agricultural products, and metals.

“India’s exports are substitutes and are less profitable,” she says.

But India is betting on strengthening domestic manufacturing on the back of diversification efforts by global investors.

The company’s production-linked incentive system aims to reduce dependence on strategic areas, but it also curbs investment from China. banned apps Companies like Xiaomi and Vivo also came under scrutiny.

“If India starts to become risk-averse, Chinese exporters could lose the Indian market, which they are increasingly controlling,” Natixis’ Garcia Herrero added.

“Moreover, India could set an example for the Global South and other developing countries.”



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