The agreement makes Ethiopia the first country to recognize a breakaway state.
“China supports the federal government of Somalia in safeguarding national unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Thursday.
“Meanwhile, we hope that regional countries will successfully deal with regional issues through dialogue and achieve common development through friendly cooperation.”
But China also has close ties with Ethiopia, and analysts say Beijing is unlikely to criticize Beijing over the dispute.
The dispute comes after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa granting maritime and commercial access to ports on Somaliland’s coast. It started on January 1st, when the announcement was made. 50 years in Ethiopia. In return, the agreement “contains a provision for the Ethiopian government to recognize Somaliland.”
Mogadishu called the deal an “unlawful violation of Ethiopia’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud subsequently signed a law abolishing the memorandum.
In neighboring Djibouti, China opened its first overseas military base in 2017 and is investing heavily in the country’s maritime industry.
Chinese companies have fishing interests in Somalia, and the Chinese government is at the forefront of anti-piracy efforts, with two frigates and a supply ship permanently stationed in Somali waters.
Guled Ahmed, a Mogadishu native and non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said China is cautious about the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal and may not react at all to the issue.
“We have a lot more investment and stronger ties with Ethiopia than with Somalia,” Ahmed said.
“The future of Somaliland-Taiwan relations is uncertain,” Ahmed said.
Disputes with Somalia erupt over Ethiopia’s agreement with breakaway regions
Disputes with Somalia erupt over Ethiopia’s agreement with breakaway regions
David Shin, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Studies in Washington and former U.S. ambassador to Addis Ababa, agreed that Beijing is unlikely to criticize its African allies.
“China has close ties with Ethiopia and would be reluctant to criticize Addis Ababa over the Somaliland deal,” he said.
He also said it is important to keep a close eye on what happens to relations between Taiwan and Somaliland.
“China opposes the exchange of official residences between Taiwan and Somaliland, and if this relationship gains political importance, it will become even more critical,” Shin said.
In 2020, when Taiwan opened a representative office in Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa, and Somaliland opened a similar office in Taipei, the Chinese government “accused Taiwan of undermining Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” “did.
The Chinese government considers Taiwan to be part of China and must reunify it by force if necessary. Although most countries, including the United States, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, the United States opposes any attempt to seize the self-governing island by force and is committed to militarizing Taiwan.
Seifdein Adem, an Ethiopian international affairs professor at Doshisha University, said China would try to avoid overtly supporting either side.
However, he said China would like to see Somaliland join the community of nations, eventually be recognized by the international community as a legitimate state, and eventually sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
“Otherwise, China will try to avoid this issue completely for the time being,” Adem said.
“Although China has recently strengthened its relationship with Somalia, Somalia is highly dysfunctional, limiting what China can accomplish there,” Meservey said.
He added that China is already trying to disassociate Somaliland from its ties with Taiwan. “However, I think Somalilanders understand that China will never recognize independence because of the Taiwan issue.”
He said he believed China would strongly support Mogadishu diplomatically in the current conflict.
“It is not inconceivable that the Chinese government could covertly provide all the support it can to Mogadishu’s retaliatory mischief in Somaliland,” he said.
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Somaliland opens representative office in Taiwan, deepening recently established relationships
Somaliland opens representative office in Taiwan, deepening recently established relationship
It is highly unlikely that the Chinese government will recognize Somaliland, but there is growing pressure in the US from some quarters in Congress and the Senate to do so in exchange for access to the port of Berbera as a replacement for the US military base in Djibouti. .
George Washington University’s Singh said there are several members of Congress, several U.S. think tanks, and perhaps even some Pentagon officials who support recognition of Somaliland.
“However, the Biden administration’s position continues to support Somalia’s territorial integrity,” Singh said. “There is no indication that the Biden administration is planning any policy changes.”
According to MEI’s Ahmed, based on the US State Department’s daily briefings, the State Department has expressed concerns about the Ethiopia-Somaliland Agreement but still recognizes Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity based on its 1960 borders. That’s what it means. Mr. Ahmed explained that the language was confusing as to whether the United States was referring to the post-merger border or the pre-merger border. This is because both events took place in 1960. However, he said the United States is not opposed to the deal and urged all parties to engage in diplomatic dialogue, including: solve the problem.
The agreement with Somaliland comes shortly after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy said in October that the landlocked country would stake its claim, a declaration that raised concerns among neighboring countries. Abiy said Ethiopia lacks sea access, which affects its ability to trade and “keeps Ethiopia from maintaining the position it should be in.”