“This reflects the high level of uncertainty we face,” Matthias Weber, the report’s lead author, said in an interview. “There are so many uncertainties that there are no safe bets anymore.”
The study, published last month, aims to predict what the world will look like in 2040, as a guide to spending under the EU’s flagship research and development program Horizon Europe from 2025 to 2027. Drafted by a group of academic experts. European Commission officials began work in January 2022 and completed the report in August, several months before publication.
Areas listed as priority research areas for the EU in the report include artificial intelligence, climate change, “transhumanist” technologies to extend human lifespans, hydrogen fuels and nanotechnology, or technology that is too small to support human life in general. This includes research into materials that are invisible to the naked eye.
The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation said in a statement that the report “makes a significant contribution” to the EU’s Horizon Europe strategic plan and long-term investment approach.
“The conclusions drawn from this study will help define the European approach to R&I.” [research and innovation] In the next few years.”
The EU’s deliberations highlight the growing emphasis that governments around the world are placing on security considerations in technology investments, as wars and Cold War-like conflicts rekindle. The United States and China are racing to develop next-generation technologies such as AI and advanced computer chips, saying they are essential to military supply chains. Russia is building thousands of attack drones to power its invasion of Ukraine. Washington State has announced its own small drone acceleration program.
“Europe’s scientific achievements may need to be more closely linked to security,” the EU report said.
Weber, director of the Center for Innovation Systems and Policy at the Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), said the study was an attempt to support the EU in thinking out of the box to prepare for potential risks. Weber said the team’s mission was simply to provide the analysis, and that EU authorities would decide in the coming months how to spend the research funds. The period for Horizon Europe is from 2021 to 2027, and while the majority of the €95.5 billion budget has already been allocated, the funding allocation for 2025 to 2027 has not yet been determined.
The authors argue that the EU is an “autocratic state” (the term was not defined in the report, but generally applies to states in which the ruler holds absolute power and is not democratically elected). They question the extent to which they should be allowed to participate in research projects. The report argues that allowing them into the country is necessary to address some globalized challenges, rather than leaving them unarmed in security considerations. There is.
Weber said that while their study does not include detailed discussions of individual companies or countries, it does show that there is a general emphasis on security and autonomy among EU member states. He said it was reflected.
The report considers a variety of global scenarios that could emerge between now and 2040, including two scenarios the authors dubbed “Mad Max” and “Home Alone.” There is.
In a “Mad Max” scenario, the EU is weakened by domestic political crisis, the United States retreats into isolationism, the Middle East is beset by new armed conflicts, and the influence of China and Russia is growing. The authors say the issues to watch are governments increasing defense spending, a decline in research cooperation with the United States that is pushing some European countries toward China, and “to deal with growing international turmoil.” The number of AI-enabled police tools is increasing.
The “Home Alone” scenario envisions a “post-US hegemonic world order” in which the EU faces a decision to build its own military and join a military research alliance with China. In this scenario, even though some European countries’ reliance on technological solutions “makes them more vulnerable to intimidation activities from authoritarian states,” the EU would still have “strategic autonomy and security.” The company is seeking to conduct research with “trusted” parties to strengthen the
The authors also offer a “new hope” scenario in which the transatlantic partnership is strengthened “with a generally friendly and globally committed United States.”
Weber is the main author of this report. Dana Wasserbacher, AIT Professional Advisor. and Nikos Kastrinos, policy officer at the European Commission, and the trio drew on input from academics across Europe. The section containing these three of her hypothetical scenarios lists her colleague Susanne Giesecke and seven other researchers at AIT as authors.
Mr Weber said the study group’s broad recommendations were for the EU to maintain a wide range of technology investments to ensure it was prepared for whatever the future might bring.
“If there’s one cross-cutting message from the whole report, it’s that this needs more flexibility and adaptability,” he said.
Other governments also conduct predictive and inferential studies to guide policy decisions. The National Intelligence Council has published a Global Trends report every four years since 1997. The latest report, published in 2021, predicts that the US-China conflict will determine the “broad parameters” of the geopolitical environment for decades to come. , and warned against China’s intensive efforts to become a technological leader. We also considered the various possible outcomes of this competition, from the United States securing a global leadership role to China becoming the leading power in siled spheres of influence.
Both the Biden and Donald Trump administrations have made countering China’s rising technological power a key policy focus. The Biden administration is in the process of granting $52 billion in subsidies to U.S. semiconductor production to prevent China from catching up.
Like the US report, the EU study predicts continued global instability in the coming years.
“It is common to say that the 21st century has been nothing more than a series of crises,” the report says. “As we investigated the disruption, we found that the crisis is likely to continue unabated.”