The Chinese government must now take countermeasures.
For Beijing, Lai’s victory is a defeat that deepens concerns about its ability to keep Taiwan under its control, a long-standing goal of the ruling Communist Party and a key part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s legacy. As a result, Taiwan’s ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DP), which the Chinese government denies involvement with, will be given an unprecedented third term.
“Mr. Lai’s victory means Mr. Xi loses face,” said Chen Fanyu, an assistant professor of political science at Dongzhou University in Taipei. “That means his Taiwan policy has failed. So now he has to do something to show his muscles.”
In the coming months, Beijing is expected to step up efforts to intimidate Taiwan using familiar coercion tactics such as military harassment and economic coercion.
But Taiwanese and U.S. officials and analysts say actual conflict or invasion is unlikely, at least for now. China’s immediate actions will be constrained by its desire to maintain its recently stable relationship with the United States.
A U.S. delegation including former national security adviser Stephen Hadley and former deputy secretary of state James Steinberg is scheduled to arrive in Taipei on Sunday, according to the United States Association of Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy there. That’s what it means.
China’s initial reaction to Lai’s victory was as expected. Officials issued a typically strongly worded statement on Sunday, with Chinese embassies in the countries that congratulated Lai accusing China of “interfering in China’s internal affairs.” “No matter how the situation in Taiwan changes, the fundamental fact remains that Taiwan is part of China,” the Chinese embassy in London wrote.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense announced Sunday morning that four warships had been spotted near the island, while a Chinese high-altitude balloon floated off the northwest coast near the capital.
For the past eight years, since the Democratic Progressive Party took power, the Chinese government has severed official ties with President Tsai Ing-wen, making any engagement with Lai, who has previously pushed for full independence, even less likely.
While serving as vice president of the Tsai administration, Mr. Lai has pledged to maintain a moderate stance, maintaining a fragile status quo and continuing a policy of avoiding war in the Taiwan Strait. He has repeatedly said he would engage with the Chinese government “on an equal footing.”
But the Chinese government has already rejected the Democratic Progressive Party’s position that Taiwan is a sovereign state, officially known as the Republic of China, and there is no need to formally declare independence and risk conflict.
Taiwanese voters, both those who supported Mr. Lai and those who chose the two opposition candidates, are braced for a difficult four years.
Akira Chiu, 60, a tourism worker who voted for Lai, said, “I expect China to increase pressure on Taiwan, but I’m not afraid.” “We are always ready to defend our country.”
Xie Xin Zhong, a 26-year-old office worker from Taipei who voted for the main opposition Kuomintang Party, which supports closer ties with China, said the Democratic Progressive Party would bring Taiwan closer to war with China.
“The DPP has a history of conflict with China, so we are very concerned about the future of Taiwan. What if China runs out of patience and declares war in the next four years? It’s not impossible,” she said. Ta.
Analysts believe that by Lai’s inauguration on May 20, the next key indicator will determine how his election will affect the volatile relationship between Taiwan, China and the United States. The Chinese government is unlikely to take drastic action.
By then, Beijing will seek to strike a balance between intimidating Taipei and encouraging the United States to rein in Mr. Lai, without provoking a backlash that alienates the Taiwanese people.
“China will continue to increase military pressure to prevent Lai from “crossing the line” during his inaugural speech, said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. ” he said.
After then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022, she expected the level of military power displayed after the Chinese military fired nearly a dozen missiles in a four-day military exercise encircling Taiwan. There are almost no people. However, the Chinese government can also deploy other methods.
Since December, China has sent more than 31 high-altitude balloons into Taiwanese airspace, similar to those shot down over the United States last year, in a new form of “gray balloon” aimed at intimidating Taiwan and depleting its military resources. It became a “zone” tactic.
Before the election, the Chinese government canceled preferential tariffs on 12 chemicals imported from Taiwan that were part of trade agreements signed over the past decade and threatened to suspend further tariffs.
“The cumulative effect of these measures will be to make Mr. Lai less flexible and less flexible in his cross-strait positions,” said Eurasia Group China managing director and former State Department official. said Rick Waters, head of China policy.
Beijing could use that pressure to exploit Lai’s weaknesses. On Sunday, Chinese state media highlighted that Mr. Lai had been elected president with just 40% of the vote, and that his party had lost its majority in parliament.
“The results of the two elections are [DPP] does not represent mainstream public opinion on the island,” the China Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement late Saturday.
Mingxin Pei, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College, said while Lai’s election was a setback for China, Beijing can console itself with the knowledge that the new government will be weaker than the outgoing one. . The main opposition party, the National Party, currently has a narrow lead in parliament.
“So apart from the loss of face, China is essentially in a slightly better position than before,” Pei said.
Still, Beijing appears reluctant to erase the gains made during the November meeting between Mr. Xi and President Biden, which helped reopen key communication channels, including between the two militaries.
So China will likely continue its attacks, said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program.
“I think China will refrain from some of the bigger things, perhaps flying fighter jets within Taiwan’s airspace, because they need to be able to deploy them later and also because they want to disrupt order on Taiwan.” “Because we don’t want to make the U.S.-China relationship unstable,” she said.
In the run-up to the election, the Biden administration reiterated that it does not support Taiwan independence and will not take a position on “a final resolution of cross-Strait differences, if resolved peacefully.”
Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the Crisis Group think tank, said this was to reassure Beijing. She said it was “a clear attempt by both countries to maintain the momentum created by the Xi-Biden meeting.”
Even if high-level political dialogue between the Chinese government and the next Lai administration is not possible, there is scope to ease tensions. Sending signals through public statements and communicating through informal back channels are all helpful, Xiao said.
“This time period that we’re in right now is really important. It really depends on what we communicate between the three parties. It’s an opportunity to set expectations,” she said, referring to Beijing, Taipei and Washington. .
In Taipei, some residents believe there is little point in trying to persuade the Chinese government. “If China wants to start a war, it won’t be able to stop them no matter what Taiwan does or which party is in power,” said the 27-year-old translator, who recently signed up for the agreement. Dora Chan said. Civil defense training course. “Everyone knows that the provocative side has always been China, not Taiwan.”
Ellen Nakashima in Washington and Lyric Li, Vic Chan and Pei-Lin Wu in Taipei contributed to this report..