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If Donald Trump becomes president in 2025, war games could spark conflict between Taiwan and China.
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The head of international relations told the NYT that the match ended sooner than expected.
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Taiwan could not meet the demands expected by China and the United States, and was ultimately “toast.”
What will happen if a second Trump administration potentially takes office in 2025 and tensions rise between Taiwan and China?
One war game simulation suggests the conflict will move quickly and ends on an ominous note for Taiwan.
“Taiwan is celebrating,” Alexander C. Huang, director of international relations for Taiwan’s Kuomintang political party, told Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times.
The KMT (Kuomintang) is Taiwan’s main opposition party that opposes the island nation’s independence.
Mr. Huang told Mr. Kristoff that the simulation was scheduled to last three hours, but ended in just two hours without any shots being fired.
Kristoff said that in the game, Taiwan would meet hypothetical demands that China and the United States would make in the simulation, such as a reunification schedule in which China and Taiwan would be integrated, and pressure from the United States for more spending. He said he was unable to do so. Taiwan’s military.
War games are conducted as part of training to consider potential scenarios and strategies in the event of a conflict, but they should not be considered guaranteed outcomes.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank based in Washington, D.C., conducted 24 simulations and found that in “most scenarios” the United States, Taiwan, and Japan would be able to repel China in the event of an amphibious invasion. .
However, it turned out that defense would be “highly costly” as Taiwan’s economy would be devastated.
Donald Trump’s unpredictability has some political experts and analysts concerned about what a second term for Trump will mean for China-Taiwan relations.
Stanley Rosen, a professor of political science and international relations at the US-China Institute at the University of Southern California, previously told Business Insider that for China, “Trump is completely unreliable as an ally or as an enemy.”
President Trump has repeatedly refused in interviews to say whether he intends to defend Taiwan if China invades.
“Trump is very popular in Taiwan and Hong Kong because they say he’s tough and they think he’s tough,” Rosen said. “But he won’t follow through.”
Read the original article on Business Insider