China and the United States are back at the negotiating table. Whether they can agree on many points is another matter.
China’s top diplomat discussed North Korea and Iran with President Biden’s national security adviser in Bangkok last week. Days later, officials in Beijing resumed long-stalled talks to curb the flow of fentanyl into the United States. And the White House announced that Biden plans to speak by phone with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the spring.
This development hints at both the potential and limits of a tentative détente that Biden and Xi announced at their November summit near San Francisco, and the potential for that détente. While the world’s two superpowers grapple with managing friction, diplomacy is also exposing the rift at the heart of the tension over how to define the relationship.
The Biden administration has argued that the two countries are strategic competitors and that the talks are critical to preventing the rivalry from escalating into conflict. However, Chinese authorities reject that framework, viewing competition as a discipline for containment. At the meeting, Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden asserted that they had agreed to stabilize relations and put aside rivalries at the summit, and promoted a new catchphrase: the “San Francisco Vision.”
The difference in rhetoric comes especially in an election year when Biden is under pressure to take a tougher stance on China, and now amid growing concern over warnings from the Federal Bureau of Investigation that Chinese hackers are stepping up their plans. This highlights the vulnerability of the reset. To penetrate U.S. infrastructure in case of war.
For Mr. Biden, the Beijing talks on fentanyl are one of the few triumphs of the San Francisco summit. China is a major source of chemicals used to make fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills 100,000 Americans a year. U.S. officials have long urged China to further restrict exports of these chemicals, known as precursors, but Beijing has stopped cooperating as relations soured in recent years.
In an effort to force China to resume regular talks on fentanyl, the United States in November agreed to China’s request to lift U.S. sanctions on a forensic laboratory run by China’s Ministry of Public Security. The institute was placed on a trade blacklist in 2020 for being complicit in abuses against China’s ethnic minorities, including the Uyghurs. The Biden administration said the lifting of sanctions was justified because China had shut down some companies exporting fentanyl precursors and closed their bank accounts.
The Chinese government is also moving to ease tensions in other regions. Talks between the two countries’ militaries resumed in December, a move promoted by the US government in hopes of reducing the risk of accidental collisions in disputed waters such as the East China Sea and South China Sea. The two countries also plan to hold talks soon on reducing the risks of artificial intelligence technology.
Analysts say this diplomacy is also aimed at reassuring the world that China is a responsible global player and is doing its part to stabilize relations.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said, “If China and the United States strengthen cooperation on international issues, China’s international influence could be constructive and serve the national interests of the United States.” The U.S. government may recognize this.”
But analysts say the effect of rapprochement could be limited when it comes to other more complex geopolitical issues, such as the escalating crisis in the Middle East or tensions on the Korean peninsula. China has influence over Iran and North Korea as one of the only major countries in the world to maintain strong diplomatic and trade ties with two countries that are subject to strict sanctions.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan last week urged Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to rein in Houthi rebels attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea and persuade North Korea to reduce the threat of war. He called on Iran to put pressure on Iran.
But there are limits to what Beijing can do without undermining its interests, analysts say.
China’s priorities on the Korean peninsula are to maintain the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and to ensure that the country remains an important buffer zone between the Chinese border and US forces in South Korea. As a result, the Chinese government is reluctant to put too much pressure on North Korea, making Kim less susceptible to Chinese pressure.
Regarding the Red Sea, China has invested billions of dollars in logistics and energy to expand trade in the region and is interested in easing tensions in the region. China said it was in touch with “various parties” to end the attacks on commercial ships.
But Beijing will need to balance any pressure on Iran with appealing to Middle Eastern countries to challenge U.S. global domination. It has sought to avoid aligning too closely with the United States in a region where it has gained favor by expressing sympathy for the Palestinian cause and denouncing U.S. support for Israel as the root cause of the protracted conflict in the Middle East.
Beijing’s recent rhetoric toward the United States highlights that Beijing remains assertive and willing to act on its own terms, while also seeking rewards for cooperation with Washington.
During the meeting, Wang told Sullivan that the United States and China should treat each other “equally, not condescendingly.” The White House said it was trying to arrange a phone call between Biden and Xi in the coming months. However, China has not yet confirmed any such plans.
Chinese propaganda outlets such as Communist Party newspaper Global Times published editorials this week saying the United States should “respect China’s goodwill” in agreeing to discuss the fentanyl issue. Another editorial suggested that the United States should “speak well with China” if it wants Beijing’s cooperation in pressuring Iran.
At the same time, inaction poses risks to the Chinese government. China has sought to position itself as a more reliable global peacebuilder than the United States by avoiding security alliances and calling for dialogue to resolve crises rather than military intervention like the U.S.-UK attack on the Houthis. . But Beijing is unable or unwilling to try to rein in partners like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan when they are at the center of some of the world’s most dangerous conflicts. Nor.
Sheena Greitens, a political scientist who studies security in Asia, said, “If the Chinese government is unable to prevent close friends from shooting each other, China, which is an architect of global security and a stabilizing force, will not be able to do so.” This could increase the credibility of the claims made.” At the University of Texas at Austin.
Ultimately, de-escalating tensions with the United States could be a way for China to gain more leeway.
Danny Russell, deputy director of the Asia Society Policy Institute and former US assistant secretary of state, said Beijing’s détente with Washington was meant to allow Xi to better focus on “the fight against the West. “It’s a tactical pause.” his country’s struggling economy; China’s rising debt, real estate crisis and geopolitical tensions are eroding foreign investment and confidence.
“President Xi’s tactical pause, which serves some of his interests at this point, should not be confused with a softening of his commitment to so-called ‘core interests,'” Russell said, adding that Beijing has no room for negotiation. He mentioned that he was raising this as an issue that does not exist, and stated as follows: These include claims to Taiwan and the right to maintain the Communist Party’s control over China.