Chinese leader Xi Jinping has tied his country’s great power status to a singular promise to unify his homeland with Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party considers a sacred lost territory. A few weeks ago, Mr. Xi called this a “historical necessity.”
But Saturday’s general election in Taiwan handed the presidency for the third time in a row to a party promoting Taiwan’s independent identity, pushing the tumultuous democracy further away from China and dreams of unification. This was confirmed.
After a festival-like rally in which large crowds of people shouted, danced and waved matching flags, Taiwanese voters ignored China’s warnings that a vote for the Democratic Progressive Party was a vote for war. They made that choice anyway.
Lai Ching-de, a former doctor and current vice president who is considered a staunch separatist by the Chinese government, will be Taiwan’s next leader. This is an act of self-governing rebellion that proves what many already knew. His arm-twisting, accompanied by Beijing’s economic and sea-air military harassment of Taiwan, has only strengthened Taiwan’s desire to protect its de facto independence and move beyond China. A huge shadow.
“The harder-line, harder-line approach is not working,” said Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, and author of “Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise.” “This is the reality of Taiwanese politics.”
Cultural and political evolution comes with risks. Mr. Lai’s victory forces Mr. Xi to confront his lack of progress. And while China’s full-scale response will likely take months or years, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Saturday night that the election cannot change the course of cross-Strait relations, effectively calling it a brinkmanship policy. He said the stress dynamics are certain to continue and perhaps intensify.
China and the United States have made Taiwan a testing ground for competing sensibilities and visions. For the Chinese government, the island is a remnant of the civil war, and the United States has no involvement whatsoever. For Washington, it is the first line of defense for global stability, the democracy of 23 million people, and the world’s microprocessor factories.
The enormous stakes weigh every word and policy that Mr. Lai and his party may utter now and after he takes office in May. Mr. Xi will not be able to remain silent as Taiwan’s self-consciousness and China’s expectations conflict.
Before the election, Chinese authorities painted Mr. Lai as a villain in editorials and public comments, calling him a staunch “Taiwanese independence activist,” a “destroyer of peace on both sides of the Strait,” and a potentially “creator of a dangerous war.” called “person.”
Mr. Lai, 64, a veteran politician respected by his supporters for his quiet determination, said during the campaign that Taiwan did not need formal independence. At a press conference after his victory, he said he would follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, and seek a balanced approach to cross-Strait relations, including “cooperation with China.”
However, there is little chance that China will change its mind.
“Lai Qingde is an impulsive and politically biased person, so we cannot exclude the possibility that unexpected and unknown developments will occur during his tenure,” said Zhu Song, a professor of Taiwan studies at Peking Union University. Mr. Ling said.
“I think it’s very dangerous,” he added, noting that Xi’s views on Taiwan are clear. This includes his assertion that force could be used if necessary.
Western scholars who study Chinese politics are less optimistic.
Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University, said, “The next four years will be anything but stable in U.S.-China relations and in cross-strait relations.”
He, like other analysts, said he expected a familiar set of pressure tactics.
At the very least, China will continue to try to manipulate Taiwan’s politics through disinformation, intimidation, and economic incentives. Chinese officials have also signaled they may target trade by ruling out further tariff concessions.
Expanding military exercises is another possibility. Chinese warplanes, drones and ships already enter Taiwan almost daily.
Beijing has also indicated that it intends to continue to pressure Taiwan and urge Washington to reduce its military aid. Messages of warning are becoming a common feature of US-China diplomacy.
On the eve of Taiwan’s election, Liu Jianchao, head of the international department of the Communist Party of China, met with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in Washington. The United States said Blinken “reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”
Based on other public statements, Liu likely warned the United States not to intervene in the “Taiwan region.” The complaint was sparked by the announcement that a delegation of former officials would head to Taipei after the election. Such visits have been common for decades. China’s Foreign Ministry condemned the “brazen chatter on the American side.”
But Washington has no intention of remaining silent or constraining cooperation. Quite the opposite. Last year, the Biden administration announced it would withdraw weapons from the U.S. stockpile and provide $345 million in military aid to Taiwan. The Congressional bill would also strengthen economic ties with Taiwan, ease tax laws and lay the groundwork for economic sanctions in the event of an attack by China.
Analysts said Lai, who has worked with the U.S. side as vice president, could move more quickly and tackle more sensitive areas.
The United States may increase cooperation on cybersecurity and strengthen (or prepare to) strengthen communications networks to the point where the lines with information sharing are blurred. It may also seek to establish military logistics facilities on the islands, a strategy the Pentagon is implementing across the region.
It is also an open secret that American military advisers, primarily retired military officers, have a growing presence in Taiwan. Some Taiwanese officials refer to them as “English teachers.” More companies may emerge under Mr. Lai’s leadership.
“Beijing has turned a blind eye, so the question is how big of a Rubicon does its presence cross?” said Wen-ti Song, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. “We hope that each additional measure will not be seen as blatantly provocative to provoke or justify a large-scale response from China,” he added.
Of course, war is not inevitable. With China in dire economic straits and the United States busy with wars in Europe and the Middle East, that may be unlikely.
Some analysts hope Mr. Xi will find a way to claim electoral victory and back away from his opponents. While the third-party candidate, Ko Wenji, won 26% of the vote with a vague focus on China-centered relations, Mr. Lai won with only 40%.
“It is in China’s national interest to expand the path of peaceful integration so that China does not have to go to war,” Professor Silk said. “A lot of people are watching this interaction and the Chinese government’s response. All investors are watching.”
But in Taiwan, there may be little Mr. Xi can do to burnish China’s image. In a recent survey, less than 10% of Taiwanese respondents believed that China could be trusted.
“We have seen too many examples of what Mr. Xi did to Hong Kong and how he treated the people,” said Chen Tingbing, 56, a Taipei teacher who voted for Mr. Lai. Ta.
Most Taiwanese see their future elsewhere. Many on Saturday said they hoped the government could leverage its strong semiconductor industry to build links with Southeast Asia and Europe.
During the election campaign, any identity with China seemed to be erased. Taiwan’s official name is the Republic of China, a holdover from when Chinese nationalists fled to Taiwan, but references to the Republic of China have been difficult to find. At Lai’s rally, supporters wore sparkling green jackets with “Team Taiwan” written in English on the back.
Even the Kuomintang, known for favoring close ties with China, emphasized deterrence, maintaining the status quo, and Taiwanese identity. The candidate, Hou Yuxi, spoke with such a strong Taiwanese accent that Chinese speakers unaccustomed to local inflections had trouble understanding his words.
In many ways, this election was less of a referendum on China policy than previous years. Cost-of-living issues have become more dominant, in part because candidates’ platforms on foreign affairs have become more popular with most people, including strengthening the military, closer ties with the democratic world, and maintaining the status quo to avoid provocation. This was because it matched what they said they wanted. But the Chinese government is also trying to tiptoe out of that orbit.
“All we want is to preserve our way of life,” said Allen Su, 65, a retiree whose father is from China and whose son serves in Taiwan’s air force. Ta.
“China cannot be trusted at all,” he added.
John Liu I contributed a report from Taipei. claire fu from Seoul and amy chan chien Born in Chiayi City, Taiwan.