In early December 2023, news spread that Italy had quietly withdrawn from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Italy, the first G7 member and so far the only country to join Belt and Road, has become the first and only country to withdraw from China’s massive global infrastructure development plan.
Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative aims to connect China and Europe through land and sea routes, and has since expanded to include Africa, Latin America, and the Arctic region. Currently, more than 150 countries have joined his BRI.
However, Italy’s withdrawal from Belt and Road was not a surprise. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Fratelli d’Italia party has already been a vocal critic of Italy’s Belt and Road membership as an opposition party, with Meloni slamming the decision as a “big mistake” during the 2022 election campaign. Rumors have been circulating since May 2023 that Italy could withdraw from the Belt and Road initiative.
The Italian government, led by then-Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Italy, giving it access to the Belt and Road Agreement until March 2019. On the Italian side, the driving force behind the agreement was Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio’s left-wing populist Five Star Movement, despite being highly skeptical of coalition partner Matteo Salvini’s right-wing populist Lega. was.
Rome’s unilateral move to join Belt and Road drew sharp criticism from Washington, which feared Italy could become a Trojan horse for China in Europe and negatively impact the continent’s security. The United States views the Belt and Road Initiative as a geopolitical strategy that changes the world order in China’s favor. U.S. officials regularly accuse China of creating debt traps through predatory infrastructure projects in order to expand its political influence in recipient countries. Italy was seen as particularly vulnerable to this risk, with public debt exceeding 130% of GDP.
Italy’s accession to Belt and Road coincided with a recalibration of the European Union’s China policy. In its 2019 EU-China Strategic Outlook, the EU adopted a more critical position towards China, no longer treating China only as a “cooperation partner” but as an “economic competitor” and “institutional rival.” ” was also specified. In Brussels and other European capitals, Italy’s Belt and Road membership was seen as jeopardizing Europe’s common approach to China. Brussels, Berlin and Paris, as well as the “17+1” forum linking China and Central and Eastern European countries, suspected that China was using the Belt and Road initiative to drive a wedge into Europe’s fragile unity. .
Italy, still reeling from the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 euro crisis, has seen an increase in exports to the rapidly expanding Chinese market as a result of joining the Belt and Road, attracting Chinese overseas investment and significantly increasing the number of Chinese tourists. It was expected to increase and accelerate the development of the ports of Trieste, Genoa and Venice. And in Palermo, it is backed by Chinese companies.
None of these expectations materialized, and this became the official reason for Italy to exit its Belt and Road membership. Italy’s exports to China increased only slowly from 2019 to 2023, from 13 billion euros to 16.4 billion euros. Meanwhile, imports from China nearly doubled from 31.7 billion euros to 57.5 billion euros, widening Italy’s trade deficit. The slow progress in economic relations should be largely due to the coronavirus pandemic, which has hit both China and Italy hard, but Italy’s European competitors, Germany and France, have Even though it is not a member country, it has achieved excellent economic results with China.
Ironically, relations between China and Italy began to deteriorate soon after the memorandum was signed. Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity, which took over from Conte in early 2021, took a far more cautious line toward Beijing. The Draghi government strengthened the Golden Power Law of 2012, a legal mechanism regulating foreign direct investment in security-related economic sectors, and strengthened the Golden Power Law of 2012, which is a legal mechanism regulating foreign direct investment in security-related economic areas, and has strengthened the 2012 Golden Power Law, which is a legal mechanism regulating foreign direct investment in security-related economic sectors. Blocked Chinese investment in infrastructure. With these measures, Mr. Draghi reorganized Italy into a policy of “risk aversion” critical of the West’s China.
So how can Italy’s interlude in the BRI be explained?
The previous Renzi administration (2014-2016) and Gentiloni administration (2016-2018) have already made efforts to improve relations with China in light of continuing tensions with the EU over budget issues and immigration. attempted to diversify Italy’s foreign policy. However, it was the first Conte administration (2018-2019) that elevated Italy’s China policy to a full-fledged hedging strategy. Hedging is a contradictory policy and can: Following the example of Malaysian scholar Kuik Chuen Chican be divided into two elements: risk contingency and return maximization.
Risk management aims to maintain good relations with all opposing forces and avoid taking sides. In the case of Rome, such an “all-round encirclement” (quote) Evelyn Go concept) This implied some distancing from the United States, NATO, and the European Union, fueled by deep Euroscepticism, while improving relations with non-Western countries. While the Five Star Movement focused on China, its junior partner in the coalition, Lega, fostered ties with Russia. Another part of Italy’s hedging was its support for Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific initiative shortly after signing the Memorandum of Understanding with China.
The Italian government at the time hoped that diversifying its diplomatic relations would allow Italy to avoid the increasingly intense competition between the United States, China, and Russia, and give it greater scope for foreign policy autonomy in pursuing its national interests. was. What was even more important was “maximizing profits.” For the Five Star Movement, joining the Belt and Road initiative became a silver bullet to overcome Italy’s long-term economic stagnation.
Giorgia Meloni never bought Hedgelogic. He believes Italy’s security would be better served by a new balancing strategy, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the further deterioration of U.S.-China relations, and the poor economic results of Italy’s Belt and Road membership. This means closer ties with the Biden administration, clear support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, improved relations with Taiwan, and a critical stance against China’s repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
Mr. Meloni’s policy change is further supported by: her courtship of india, China’s nemesis in Asia. In 2023, she met several times with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and signed an agreement to upgrade relations between Italy and India to a strategic partnership. Meloni also signed onto the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which is touted as an alternative to Belt and Road, although it is likely to fall victim to the Gaza war.
But Italy has not completely abandoned hedging. Rome’s exit from the BRI was carefully orchestrated diplomatically and achieved in a face-saving manner for China to avoid Chinese retaliation. The Italian government also said that even if it is not a Belt and Road member country, We want to build good relations with China.. The two countries aim to strengthen bilateral relations by reviving the strategic partnership that was launched by the Berlusconi administration in 2004.