China’s economy is expected to grow at an upward pace of 5.3% this year, despite lingering market concerns and heightened caution from international organizations, a top government think tank said on Thursday.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) said in its annual economic outlook released on Tuesday that the world’s second-largest economy will grow this year, even as the World Bank maintained its 4.5% outlook in its latest report on the same day. It is expected that the situation will stabilize.
CAS, the first state-run think tank to make economic forecasts for 2024, expects China’s economy to start modestly at 5% growth in the first quarter, then expand at a faster pace in the second half of the year. There is.
According to the CAS report, domestic consumption and investment are expected to increase gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year by 3.7 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points, respectively, but exports are expected to reduce GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points.
However, the World Bank, based in Washington, said it expects weak sentiment and heightened economic uncertainty to weigh on consumption, while investment growth will continue to slow as the real estate sector remains weak. said the international financial institution in its World Economic Outlook report.
There is still a significant gap between the actual growth rate we are currently seeing and China’s true potential.
Hong Yongmiao, director of CAS Predictive Science Center, said China has the potential to achieve faster growth rates as long as market expectations remain stable.
“There remains a significant gap between the actual growth rates we currently see and China’s true potential. We must keep our policies continuous and stable.” said Tuesday.
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Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings forecasts that China’s growth rate will slow to 4.6% in 2024 from 5.3% last year, with a “temporary boost from the resumption of economic activity” in 2023.
According to the World Bank, global GDP growth from 2020 to 2024 is expected to be the worst in 30 years. is expected.
“Without a significant course correction, the world is on track for the weakest economic growth in five years since the 1990s,” the report said.