- Recent reports have pointed to problems with corruption and readiness in the Chinese military, particularly in its rocket forces.
- It has been suggested that these issues are related to the recent shake-up of military leadership.
- But the United States and its allies cannot afford to assume that China’s missile force is completely flawed.
China’s military has undergone several significant leadership shakeups, and a new intelligence report shows that corruption is rampant in parts of the People’s Liberation Army, particularly its prized rocket unit, and that some It is even believed that the missile was filled with water rather than fuel.
“The rocket force is the center of gravity for the Chinese military,” Tom Shugart, a former U.S. naval officer and now a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, told Business Insider. This is the “crown jewel”, especially for conflicts over Taiwan and attacks on U.S. naval forces and bases in the Pacific.
If a force has serious underlying problems, it may indicate short-term readiness, which could impact the Chinese military’s ability to deter and coerce enemy forces in the near term. This could be a big problem.
But the United States and its allies cannot afford to assume that all of their missiles are defective. The extent of corruption is sometimes difficult to gauge, as China’s leadership works hard to build a modern military capable of fighting and winning wars. And that cannot be overlooked.
U.S. intelligence, first reported by Bloomberg over the weekend, shows the People’s Liberation Army is struggling with widespread corruption from its Rocket Forces division to its industrial base, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping launches a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign As a result, more than a dozen senior defense officials were arrested. past 6 months.
Implant effects cited by U.S. intelligence include not only intercontinental ballistic missiles but also water-filled missiles. The silo has a lid that functions improperly, potentially interfering with missile launches. In response to the report, a former People’s Liberation Army official told Radio Free Asia that such problems have long been rampant within the Chinese military. He said he and other Chinese soldiers were stealing solid fuel from rocket bombs to cook pot.
The extent to which these problems are solvable for the military depends on how widespread they are, which is unclear, but the U.S. assessment seemed to paint a dire picture. The theory is that corruption within the People’s Liberation Army is so severe that it has led to a lack of trust in the Chinese military. Capability and readiness, especially in rocket forces.
Over the past six months, much of Mr. Xi’s apparent crackdown on corruption has remained hidden from the public. The only sign appeared to be the dismissal of a number of senior officials across various branches of the People’s Liberation Army. While it’s noteworthy to dismiss big-name defense leaders, sometimes multiple in the same month, without explanation, Mr. Xi has gone a step further and replaced some senior leaders with executives from other departments.
Last year’s layoffs from the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force were shocking, Shugart told Business Insider. One reason for this was to replace the leadership of the PLA Rocket Force with leaders from other branches of the PLA.
The reorganization of the Rocket Forces suggests there are questions about who can be trusted. Shugart added that since no other officer in the unit was selected to take over, “that certainly indicates there may be a very serious problem.”
“It would be like the president of the United States firing the chief of naval operations and the deputy chief of naval operations for corruption and replacing them with army and air force officers,” he compared.
“If that’s the case, you should think, ‘Oh, the corruption must be really bad,'” he said.
However, the motivation for the reorganization is debatable. Is the removal of China’s military leadership, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu, in July 2023 a sign that President Xi is rooting out corruption, carrying out dishonest purges, or both? It is unknown whether China is, in a sense, a black box.
Shugart said if Xi is truly cleaning house, it could be good for the People’s Liberation Army in the long run, potentially making China a more effective force.
The purge will further strengthen Xi’s control over the military. The Chinese leadership’s approach to the People’s Liberation Army has been characterized as an obsession with political loyalty, with the military serving the Chinese Communist Party.His military focus led to certain revisions About how PLA works.
At a conference on military political activities held in Gutian in 2014, Mr. Xi identified problems in the People’s Liberation Army that needed immediate resolution to improve efficiency and capability. He has emphasized these points repeatedly ever since.
In particular, realignment and renewal of command, actions, and priorities have occurred as a result of these efforts, consistent with President Xi’s message of making China’s military a formidable and responsive force.
As the Institute for War Studies think tank wrote this week, the purge of top military and defense industry executives in the People’s Liberation Army reflects Chinese leadership’s “fears of military dishonesty, which anti-corruption campaigns have yet to successfully root out.” This may reflect the fact that Corruption rampant in the military. ”
Corruption in the People’s Liberation Army prior to Xi Jinping’s reform efforts appears to have extended beyond the leadership level to junior officers and subordinate units, ISW wrote, making it larger and more widespread than previously thought. This suggests that there was a problem.
Concerns about corruption and readiness stand in contrast to the modernization and strengthening of China’s military. Last year, the Pentagon noted in its annual report that PLARF’s missile stockpile has increased significantly overall. Some are estimated to have doubled since 2021.
The Pentagon said China is accelerating “the development of capabilities and concepts to enhance China’s ability to ‘fight and win wars’ against ‘powerful adversaries,'” which is in line with President Xi’s expectations for the People’s Liberation Army. and China’s rhetoric against its main rival. America. The Pentagon report also acknowledged Xi’s efforts to accelerate corruption investigations.
The emphasis on corruption, especially with respect to PLARF, suggests that corruption currently exists. There are some holes in China’s preparations.
And questions remain. Is the People’s Liberation Army, and Rocket Force in particular, the increasingly formidable force the Pentagon described in its military strength report last October? Or are there cracks in the facade? Or is this just disinformation spread by some elements in Beijing to anger the West, especially the United States, which views China as a “pacing challenge,” as the Pentagon likes to say?
It is difficult to know, but in any case, the United States cannot afford to make assumptions.
“I would say that if we want to remain vigilant and exercise caution to ensure continued deterrence against Chinese forces, we should not deny China’s offensive capabilities based solely on these reports.” said Shugart.
“It is not clear how long these issues have been known within the PLA, and therefore whether they have already been fixed. “They could have maintained a higher level of combat readiness,” he added.
The People’s Liberation Army is an evolving force that is already very different in many ways than it was a decade ago.
If Mr. Xi targets actual corruption with these reforms, the PLA could improve as a result. If the goal is to target officials who are disloyal to efforts to consolidate power, it could lead to greater centralization of combat forces, for better or for worse.
As the U.S. Army chief said last year, “the People’s Liberation Army should never be underestimated,” but that is not the case with the U.S. military. Officials said in February 2023 that strengthening conscription and shipbuilding is a priority as the PLA’s capabilities and capabilities grow. But officials asserted that the PLA was not yet ready to compete in terms of quality of equipment or personnel, which spoke to a larger trend in the force’s evolution.
For example, the growing stockpile of Chinese missiles that can threaten U.S. warships and military bases has caused the U.S. military to reconsider its approach to combat in the Western Pacific, leading to actions involving the People’s Liberation Army, particularly rocket forces. I began to consider in more detail how to prepare. .