In late December, Danny Jia was walking down a street in the suburbs of Taoyuan City, Taiwan, when he suddenly heard automatic gunfire.
That morning, not far from Jia’s location, the Taiwanese military’s 249th Mechanized Infantry Brigade was conducting military training at Guanyin Beach on the island’s northwest coast.
“I almost dropped my phone because I was so surprised,” the 46-year-old civil servant told Al Jazeera.
“This exercise is also a frightening reminder that war may actually break out in Taiwan in the future,” Jia said.
Guanyin Beach is one of Taiwan’s so-called “Red Beaches,” a coastline that would provide the most advantageous conditions for an amphibious landing attack in the event of a Chinese invasion.
For Chinese military planners, Guanyin Beach is particularly well-suited because it is less than 18 kilometers (11 miles) from Taiwan’s main international airport and only about 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the outskirts of Taiwan’s capital, Taipei. Dew.
Although democratic and self-governing Taiwan has never been part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Chinese government considers it part of its territory and has used military force to bring it under its control. He has not ruled out the possibility of exercising his control.
In his New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the unification of Taiwan and mainland China is “inevitable.”
With the ever-present threat that Chinese troops will someday flood Taiwan’s shores, Jia believes military training on the Red Coast will serve an important purpose in preparing Taiwan’s military for the worst-case scenario.
However, Jia has recently found himself convinced that such a scenario is far from certain due to events in China’s own military ranks.
At the end of December, nine senior military officials were removed from their positions.
Several of those executed were members of the Chinese military’s elite Rocket Force, which oversees China’s tactical and nuclear missiles.
Previously, in August, two key figures in the Rocket Force were similarly dismissed.
In the same month, then-Chinese Defense Minister Li Shuangfu went missing.
Mr. Lee was subsequently dismissed and replaced by Mr. Dong Jun.
With so much turnover at the top, it is unclear how the Chinese military will be able to prepare for the complex planning involved in a major attack on Taiwan in the near future, Jia said.
“I think there is too much confusion in the Chinese military for that to happen,” he said.
Limited Taiwan rest
People in Taiwan have reason to feel more secure, said Christina Cheng, a researcher at the Taiwanese think tank Institute for Defense and Security Research (INDSR).
“The dismissal of senior officials shows that Xi Jinping clearly has no confidence in the military, which reduces the possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the short term,” Chen told Al Jazeera.
The expulsion of a relatively large number of Chinese officers in such a short period of time could also affect the military’s morale, amid growing uncertainty about who will be targeted next.
“More eliminations may follow, which could further weaken the military’s morale and combat capability,” Chen said.
Although the risk of imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait may have been reduced, Chen believes that Beijing’s long-term goal of occupying Taiwan remains firmly in place.
China’s new defense minister, Dongjun, has experience in military affairs related to Taiwan in his previous positions as commander of the Chinese Navy, deputy commander of the Southern Theater Command, and deputy commander of China’s East Sea Fleet.
Chen said the defense minister mainly plays diplomatic and official roles in China, but the appointment of the experienced Dongjun was not arbitrary.
This reflects Beijing’s overall ambition to transform China into a maritime power that rivals the United States and can eventually annex Taiwan, she said.
In recent years, Beijing has increasingly anticipated expanding its maritime and air power in the direction of Taiwan.
Air and sea invasions of Taiwan’s air and sea by the Chinese military have become commonplace.
The sword-like rhetoric and large-scale military exercises in waters near Taiwan also accompanied a period of particular tension.
This comes shortly after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022, and after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen stopped by San Francisco last year to meet with Pelosi’s successor, Kevin McCarthy. This was the case.
Some observers expect China to respond similarly by the time Taiwan’s next president, William Lai Ching-de, who won the Jan. 13 presidential election, takes office in May.
The Chinese government branded Lai a separatist and declared that the election results would not change Beijing’s position on the unification of Taiwan and the mainland.
Chen believes that despite the layoffs of the Chinese military, Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan continues.
“No matter how many service members are dismissed, that won’t change,” she said.
the biggest purge
According to Associate Professor Alfred Wu, an academic at the National University of Singapore who specializes in Chinese corruption and governance, the dismissal of senior Chinese military officials is more than just an organizational reform.
“In addition to anti-corruption efforts, there will also be purges,” Wu told Al Jazeera.
“Xi Jinping has tightened his grip on the military and is sending a signal to all those who are not fully aligned with him that they may be next and they should be afraid.”
Wu explained that fear is used as a means to try to ensure loyalty in China’s authoritarian state structure, where a lack of oversight and transparency can easily lead to corruption and poor governance. .
Since Mr. Xi came to power in 2012, several anti-corruption campaigns have led to purges throughout China’s state apparatus.
China’s military has long been known for corruption, but the targeting of the military’s elite rocket unit is unprecedented.
The scale of the crackdown has been described by observers as one of the largest in Chinese military history.
Under Mr. Xi’s rule, which demands absolute loyalty from the military, purges are, in Mr. Wu’s words, a “continuous process.”
Wu said that with China’s economy showing signs of decline, the legitimacy that the Chinese government enjoyed during the economic boom is under threat, and the frequency and scale of purges could increase. That’s what it means.
“The economic situation will increase anxiety within the Chinese government, which could lead to more hawkish measures to ensure loyalty within the state and military,” he said.
However, continued purges within the Chinese military could have a lasting impact on its capabilities.
“It’s difficult to fight a war when many of the generals are in prison,” Wu said.
Back in the suburbs of Taoyuan City, near one of Taiwan’s “red coasts,” Jia, a civil servant, said he was appalled by the December military exercises and said he meant no harm to anyone.
But he also wants the purges to continue if peace is to be preserved.
“If there is no war, I hope more Chinese officers will lose their jobs.”