China’s second-largest leader said on Tuesday that the country’s economy grew by “about 5.2%” last year, giving an unusually early glimpse into key economic data the day before the official announcement.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Premier Li Qiang, China’s second-highest official after Xi Jinping, said China had achieved its goal of economic growth of about 5% last year. He also argued that China has succeeded in expanding its economy without using risky or short-term measures such as large-scale spending or credit programs.
“In the course of economic development, we have continued to avoid large-scale stimulus packages and have not pursued short-term growth at the expense of long-term risk accumulation,” he said.
Lee’s comments were in line with published estimates of last year’s economic growth rate. China will release official figures in Beijing on Wednesday.
Chinese news agency Caixin said a survey of economists last week concluded that economic growth is likely at 5.3%.
The timing of official economic reports has been a sensitive issue in China since the Chinese government delayed the release of economic growth information by a week in October 2022. The extra time allowed the Communist Party to complete its important national congress before lackluster statistics were distributed to China. public.
Stephen Roach, a Yale University economist and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said Lee’s reference to economic growth forecasts was not a far more serious departure from global norms than the 2022 postponement. Ta. “There are enough questions about the reliability of China’s numbers that we do not consider this a serious breach of our confidence in the numbers,” he said.
As Li noted, China is wary of ramping up stimulus too quickly to reverse the broader economic slowdown. China is particularly wary of increased central government spending. Last year, he even reduced the country’s social safety net by increasing government benefits to seniors by small amounts and ending a massive unemployment insurance program.
But in recent months, China’s central government has authorized additional sales of bonds, a form of borrowing, and raised limits on deficit spending. The Chinese government said the bond was needed as part of additional funding for last summer’s severe flooding. The People’s Bank of China also took steps this winter to indirectly provide additional loans to local governments.
China is facing a sharp downturn in its real estate market and an alarming decline in consumer confidence. Mr. Li spent much of his speech at Davos promoting China as an attractive market for global companies and a country with strong prospects for economic growth. He pointed out that China, the world’s largest exporter, has the widest range of industries in the world.
chris buckley and Li Yu Contributed to the report and research.