Climate change displaces millions of people in Pakistan, China and India

Notably, four of the top five countries with the highest number of new internally displaced people due to disasters in 2022 were in Asia, IDMC said. Pakistan had the highest number of people with 8.2 million, followed by the Philippines with 5.5 million and China with 3.6 million.

The situation will only get worse.

According to a 2021 World Bank report, climate change could displace 216 million people in six regions internally by 2050.

However, Vinod Thomas, visiting senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said these estimates may underestimate reality.

“Forecasts typically underestimate how bad things are, and all forecasts point in one direction. This is going to increase and increase very quickly,” Thomas said. said.

He added that South Asia is likely to see the greatest number of people displaced by climate change, as it is densely populated and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. He pointed out that Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan are likely to be the most affected.

According to the World Economic Forum, 10-18% of South Asia’s GDP is at risk from climate disasters. This is approximately three times the risk faced by North America and ten times the risk faced by Europe.

Mr Thomas said internal displacement due to climate change was having serious economic impacts on host countries.

According to IDMC, during Australia’s Black Summer bushfires in 2019-2020, the loss of economic output for each day of work missed by a person was approximately $510. 65,000 people were newly evacuated due to forest fires.

IDMC estimates that just covering the housing needs of people unable to return to their homes for a year would cost between $44 million and $52 million.

But people displaced by climate disasters may also decide to leave their countries altogether.

“What we’ve seen in terms of external activity is just the tip of the iceberg, a glimpse of what’s to come,” Thomas said. “And we’re not ready for that.”

Tamara Wood, senior fellow at Kaldor International Refugee Law Center, said internal displacement due to climate change is much more common than cross-border displacement, but people will gradually move across borders as the effects of climate change worsen. He said there is a possibility that it will start.

In November, Australia signed an immigration agreement with Tuvalu that grants permanent residency to 280 Australian citizens each year.

In Southeast Asia, Pia Oberoi, UNHCR’s senior adviser on migration and human rights, told CNBC: Many people have already begun to migrate in the face of climate change and environmental degradation.

But such movements can be disguised as traditional migration flows, such as labor migration, she says.

For example, there is little research into why Bangladeshi migrant workers in Southeast Asia move abroad and are willing to take on large amounts of debt to do so.

Mr. Oberoi explained that some people have no place to return to because climate change may be having a negative impact on the country’s agricultural production. Once back in their home countries, some may return to the slums of the cities they were forced to relocate to, he added.

Given that people may be forced to move in the context of climate change because they are no longer able to cope in their home countries, governments should consider what more they can do to protect people’s human rights by providing migration. The route needs to be reconsidered, she said. she said.

For example, it is not easy for people to return to their families through these migration routes. Even though the right to family life is important, she added.

Mr Wood said sustainable ways to support people leaving their home countries due to climate change include not only providing them with visas, but also ensuring their qualifications are recognized and helping them integrate into their culture. He pointed out that it is also necessary to provide support, such as facilitating the transfer of funds to home countries.

“We need to conduct better research to understand their situation and vulnerabilities and incorporate that into pathways to provide protective responses,” Oberoi said. Countries can consider their legal systems to consider how to support people affected by climate change, she added.

Mr. Oberoi said that improving the response “does not necessarily involve introducing new categories of protection, new refugee definitions, or new humanitarian channels.” “It may be a pathway that we already have to adequately address the protection needs of people on the move.”

Mr Wood said introducing these measures could help people who want to take a proactive decision to move do so in a controlled and well-planned way. That way, she adds, you will be able to adapt gradually, rather than being pushed into a corner when you reach a crisis point.

Thomas said countries need to focus on three steps to address climate change: relief and recovery, adaptation to climate change, and mitigation by decarbonizing their economies.

He said Asian countries are unprepared for refugee relief and reintegration, and inadequate social and financial safety nets.

Thomas added that something to consider in the future would be facilities that would draw resources across borders and make them available when needed.

“Most of the time, the problem is that the funding isn’t ready when the problem arises,” he said. “So the facility can be opened up if needed, but otherwise it just accrues interest.”

When it comes to adaptation, Thomas said funds allocated to measures such as coastal defense need to be considered as part of the investment budget, rather than as a discretionary budget.

“We have to continually increase our ability to adapt,” Thomas said. “What we can endure and improve is what we need to do to reverse the direction of climate change.”

Wood suggested other countries should also step up, including the Global North and developed countries that contribute more to climate change. He said that could come in the form of migration routes and job opportunities, as well as funding to help other countries adapt and address the issue.

In 2009, developed countries pledged to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020 to help poorer countries hit by climate disasters. The OECD said last month that overdue commitments may have been met.

But the fund is just a starting point, just a drop in the bucket, Thomas said, adding that public opinion needs to change and there needs to be pressure on politicians to act now. .

“Meanwhile, while we talk and argue and argue, millions of climate migrants are the forgotten victims of climate change,” Thomas said. “They’re hidden, they don’t have a voice, they don’t even have an identity.”