After Taiwan’s presidential election last month, the Chinese government branded the winner, Lai Qingde, a separatist and swiftly denounced countries that offered their congratulations.
However, the Manila government reserved its strongest condemnation of the Philippines, advising the country not to “play with fire” and the president to “read more books” to understand the conflict over Taiwan — Manila’s comments It was described as a story that was “low and vulgar.”
The heated exchange marked the latest episode in the escalating conflict between China and the Philippines, which under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. have taken a tougher stance against China’s coercive actions in disputed waters in the South China Sea. It shows.
“Mr. Marcos has shown that he is not interested in simply bowing down to the Chinese government,” said Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute of Maritime and Sea Law at the University of the Philippines.
China’s response was perceived as contemptuous in the Philippines, he added. “The relationship situation hasn’t improved at all.”
The latest unrest over Taiwan follows increasingly aggressive Chinese activity over the past year in the territory claimed by Manila. Experts said the upcoming Senate elections in the Philippines, where public opinion is increasingly anti-China, could lead to more provocative statements and further escalate tensions.
China claims almost all of the South China Sea and has rejected a 2016 arbitration tribunal that rejected those claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Instead, Coast Guard and Maritime Militia vessels have stepped up confrontational tactics, attempting to thwart Philippine resupply missions, especially around Second Thomas Shoal, ramming ships and using water cannons and lasers to attack Filipino sailors. I use it.
Analysts cautioned that Mr. Marcos was not necessarily formally tightening Manila policy. But one diplomat in Manila said the more assertive stance emerged in response to a “steady trend of Chinese threats and bullying” from the end of 2022 onwards.
In an interview with the Financial Times at the World Economic Forum in Davos last year, Marcos, the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, said his country “has to do something” about threats by China. Ta.
Analysts and security officials describe Mr. Marcos’ visit to China a year ago as a moment of disillusionment that triggered change. During the trip, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel intercepted a Philippine vessel in the South China Sea.
“While he was speaking, [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping, something completely different was happening on the ground,” said Renato Cruz de Castro, a professor of international relations at De La Salle University in Manila.
Shortly thereafter, President Marcos supported the resumption of joint patrols with the United States in the South China Sea and authorized the entry of U.S. troops into four additional Philippine military bases, a move that could have a negative impact on relations with China. This defied some government officials who warned that there was a risk of sexual harassment.
The Chinese government condemned the decision at the time, particularly vehemently opposing the selection of three bases in the northern Philippines near Taiwan.
The Marcos administration has also promoted China’s actions in the South China Sea by taking journalists on coast guard patrols and releasing footage of Chinese harassment of Philippine vessels.
The visit was a new transparency “to convey to the world that despite our diplomatic efforts and the president’s visit, our country experiences harassment of Filipino fishermen and the Philippine Coast Guard is a victim of the military.” This marked a “turning point” for gender policy. grade laser,” Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriera said.
Rising anti-China sentiment in the Philippines could lead to worsening relations ahead of next year’s Senate polls, with another Manila-based diplomat saying the rhetoric was becoming “emotionally and politically motivated.” he warned.
More than 70% of Filipinos believe Manila should assert its claims in the South China Sea, including military actions such as naval patrols and military presence, according to a survey released last month by OCTA Research.
“This survey shows the anger of the Filipino people. They even consider military options as the right policy action to counter China,” Tarriera said. “The Filipino people are already tired of China’s bullying behavior.”
The Philippines is moving to strengthen military ties with Japan, Australia, South Korea and France, and on Tuesday said it will step up coast guard cooperation in the South China Sea with Vietnam, which also contests China’s claims in the region. Agreed. In a sign of his growing regional influence, Mr. Marcos is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a landmark Asian security forum, to be held in Singapore this year.
However, the Philippines has also reiterated its “one China” policy and sought to ease tensions with China.
Mr. Marcos congratulated Mr. Lai and said he looked forward to “close cooperation” on “strengthening mutual benefits” and “promoting peace,” since then, since the government does not support Taiwan’s independence. , made it clear that Taiwan is a “province of China.” ”.
The two countries also agreed to reduce tensions over the dispute in the South China Sea, but Philippine officials continue to criticize Beijing.
Aries Algay, a visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s Iseas Yusof Ishak Institute, said tensions between the two countries will continue as China “doubles down” on the Philippines.
Other than holding Beijing’s line in the South China Sea, there is “nothing Marcos or his regime can do at this point without receiving a negative reaction from China.”
Admiral Samuel Paparo on Thursday during his Senate confirmation hearing to become the next commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command mentioned China, saying the Philippines is “under intense pressure from aggression against its sovereignty” in its exclusive economic zone. ” he said.
“The Philippines is a sovereign partner, so our responsibility is to be ready to come to their aid if they wish as they resolve this issue with us. It’s about making sure they know we have their backs at all times,” Paparo said. “We are ready to help them defend their legal claims. They are not claims, they are rights, and they are settled by law.”
Separately, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said this week that the US would respond if China continues its “provocations” in the South China Sea and other parts of the Indo-Pacific.
“We will continue to work closely with our allies and partners to push back and speak out against the risks to peace and stability in the world’s most important waterway,” Sullivan said at the UC San Diego Forum on U.S.-China Relations. .
Additional reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington