February 7, 2024
In Europe’s three major car markets, new car deliveries increased in January. But the year hasn’t gotten off to such a good start for all powertrains. Autovista24 Special Content His editor, Phil his Curry, breaks down the numbers.
France, Italy and Spain all recorded increases in new car registrations in the first month of 2024. This continues the recovery from the problems that led to a dramatic decline from 2020 to 2022.
There will be some optimism in markets over the coming months. However, a closer look at the powertrain numbers reveals differences between the three regions. There are several challenges ahead, especially in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) space. Changes in incentives and declines in popularity can affect power intake.
But three market numbers suggest that 2024 will be more of a positive year than one defined by declines. Therefore, although registration numbers have not yet returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, they continue to increase.
Good start for France
New car registrations in France totaled 122,285 in the first month of this year. This represents a 9.2% year-on-year increase, according to the latest data from the PFA. However, despite this growth, the market remained depressed in 2019. Registrations were down 21.1% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
As the market diversifies, we appear to be at a tipping point that could spell the end of the dominance of pure internal combustion engine models. Gasoline vehicle registrations decreased by 3.7% in January, while diesel vehicle registrations decreased even more, with 9,623 registrations representing a 23.3% decrease.
This means that ICE vehicles only accounted for 42% of the market in the first month of this year, down from 49.9% in January 2023. Mild hybrid vehicles (MHEVs), which cannot run on electric power alone, accounted for 10.4% of deliveries, a 43% increase over the previous year.
Despite changes to the national incentive system for BEVs, powertrains experienced strong growth in France, despite fewer models being eligible. A total of 20,017 new BEVs were delivered, an increase of 36.6% compared to the previous year. Fully electric models thus accounted for 16.4% of the market, up from 13.1% a year ago.
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) had a more modest improvement, with 10,545 registrations representing 2.4% growth. Electric vehicles (EVs) therefore accounted for 25% of all registrations in the country, up from 22.3% in January 2023. The French full hybrid (HEV) market showed strong growth, with figures increasing by 22.9% in the same month. The share in January 2023 was 15.3%, but of the total sales he accounted for 17.2%.
Incentive impact is imminent
Changes to France’s BEV incentive system are unlikely to impact January registrations. The new vehicle list was published in December 2023 and came into effect at the beginning of 2024.
The more restrictive list excludes some popular low-cost BEVs such as the BYD Atto 3, MG4, and Dacia Spring. These models violate new eligibility standards that take into account the overall vehicle carbon footprint.
Therefore, the good BEV registration results in this country may be due to orders for these models being placed immediately after the new listing was published. The market could fall in the coming months as buyers seeking cheaper BEVs consider alternatives, including the used car market.
However, the latest forecast from EV-volumes.com (part of Autovista Group) predicts that the market share of BEVs in France will reach 21.8% in 2024, up from 16.8% last year. Meanwhile, ICE vehicles are expected to drop to 40.4% by the end of the year as they lose their advantage.
Italy’s EV battle continues
Of the three markets, Italy recorded the largest number of registrations and growth. The country ended January with 141,885 deliveries, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, according to figures from industry group ANFIA.
The Italian market was also the closest of the three markets to its 2019 numbers, but still ended the month down 13.9% in comparison.
The Italian market was driven by a combination of HEVs and MHEVs. Registrations increased by 14.2% in January, with 53,827 vehicles leaving dealerships. This technology holds his 37.9% market share, making it the most popular powertrain in the country.
Gasoline registrations increased by 26.7%, but their 43,335 units fell short of the HEV total, which also had a market share of 30.5%. Diesel deliveries decreased by 8.7% to 21,914 units, resulting in a market share of 15.4%.
However, unlike France, the Italian electricity market has experienced a rollercoaster situation. This trend continued in January, with both BEV and PHEV registrations decreasing.
Only 2,961 all-electric models were registered, a decrease of 11.1%. This is the lowest total since August 2022 and represents a market share of 2.1%, down from 2.6% in the same period last year.
PHEVs also performed well. A total of 4,084 vehicles were registered, a decrease of 33.1% compared to January 2023, and the powertrain share was 2.9%, down from 4.8% the previous year. This means that the number of registrations for plug-in models has fallen by a total of 25.3% and its market share has fallen from 7.4% last year to just 5% in January 2024.
More funds needed
ANFIA said a new incentive scheme has been presented to the Italian government. The group hopes this will improve the fortunes of EVs, while also reducing domestic emissions levels as older Euro-standard models are scrapped. ANFIA calls for quick decisions so that the market can benefit as soon as possible.
New incentive systems will be needed to encourage EV adoption in the country. Despite being one of the continent’s largest markets, Italy lags behind the European average in terms of BEV and PHEV registrations.
Currently, EV sales forecast that Italy’s BEV market share will increase from 4.2% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024. However, PHEV is predicted to decrease slightly from his 4.4% to 4.2%.
Cautious confidence in Spain
Spain’s car market grew by 7.3% in January, with 68,685 cars delivered to customers, according to industry group ANFAC. Although this shows that the recovery is continuing, the country’s figures were down 26.6% compared to January 2019 figures.
The country saw mixed results for each powertrain type. The biggest change was a decrease in overall ICE registrations. Total gasoline and diesel units fell by 7.9% in the same month, with approximately 24,000 gasoline and 7,555 diesel units delivered, down 7.2% and 10.2%, respectively.
As a result, gasoline market share decreased by 5.4 percentage points to 34.9% in January. His 11% ownership of diesel is down his 2.1 percentage points, indicating that the market is moving away from the influence of ICE and towards a more diversified market.
However, this diversification is being driven by HEV, the most popular powertrain in the first months of this year. A total of 26,451 vehicles, including MHEVs, were registered, and the market increased by 26.6% from the previous year. Therefore, in this month he HEV gained the highest market share with his 38.5%.
Disappointing performance for an EV
Spain’s EV market has not experienced the same level of turmoil as Italy, but it has struggled to convince drivers to adopt both BEVs and PHEVs. The number of PHEV registrations in January increased by 11.3% to 4,578 units.
Pure electric deliveries increased by 10.3%, but this amounted to just 3,375 units. These low numbers are reflected in market share, with both powertrains holding steady, with PHEV accounting for 6.7% (up from 6.4%) and BEV accounting for 4.9% (up from 4.8%).
As for EV sales, BEV registrations will improve throughout the year, with a final forecast market share of 8.2% in 2024, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year. However, PHEV is expected to remain stable with a share of 6.7%. With these results, the total number of BEV registrations will exceed the total number of PHEV registrations for the first time since 2019.
Felix García, Director of Communications and Marketing, emphasized that January was already above average due to delivery delays due to logistical issues in November and December 2022.
“We’ll have to wait and see how February goes, but given these numbers and all the precautions we’ve taken in January, we could see close to 1 million new passenger car sales in 2024.” said Garcia.
Jose López Tafal, General Director of ANFAC, noted the disappointing EV figures. “We continue to grow, but at a very slow pace, with electrification market share below the year-end average of 12% and far from the record of 15% of total sales last December. There is no situation.”
“This year 2024 must not be an exercise in new intentions, but a decisive strengthening of electrification in our country. We are still far from the European average of 22.3%, and the rate of acceleration of people being left behind is Inequalities between people are widening,” López Tafal concluded.