BEIJING (AP) — As us presidential election campaign China is watching anxiously as the rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden approaches.
First, there are concerns about the election campaign itself, where candidates are likely to make harsh statements about China. That could threaten the fragile improvement in U.S.-China relations seen in recent months.
Here are the voting results for November. Neither candidate is particularly attractive to China. While Biden is I looked for areas where we can cooperate. Beijing is concerned about China’s efforts to unite allies in the Indo-Pacific region in a coalition against China.I’m also nervous about his approach. Taiwan This is because he has repeatedly said that he intends to have the US military defend him in the event of a conflict with China.
Given President Trump’s isolationist approach to foreign policy, he may be reluctant to defend Taiwan. But he cannot be ruled out, given his unpredictability and harsh rhetoric against China, which he blames for the coronavirus outbreak that has dogged the end of his term. .he was able too trade war deepens That has not eased since his inauguration as president.
Zhao Minghao, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, said, “For China, no matter who wins the US presidential election, it will be two cups of poison.”
Although relations have improved slightly, tensions remain high, particularly over Taiwan. The question of who is in the White House could have a significant impact not only on U.S.-China relations but also on peace in the Asia-Pacific region.
Mr. Zhao’s view is echoed by many analysts in both countries, and the Chinese government may believe that Mr. Biden, who has taken a firm stance against President Trump’s unpredictability, will have less negative impact on Beijing. While he suggests no, he also notes that Beijing is distressed by Biden’s success in building partnerships to counter China.
“No matter who takes office, the overall direction of the United States’ strategic competition with China will not change,” said Sun Chenghao, a researcher at the Center for International Security Strategy at Tsinghua University. “China has no preference as to who wins the presidential election, because China has four years of experience dealing with both presidents.”
Many commentators on Chinese social media appear to support President Trump. They see President Trump not only as a businessman seeking a deal, but also as a subversive force undermining American democracy and American global leadership in the interests of the Chinese government. Trump’s policies and statements as president earned him the nickname Chuan Jianguo, meaning “Nation Builder Trump,” because of the implication that he supported the Chinese government.
President Trump’s recent accusation that Taiwan has stolen the semiconductor manufacturing industry from the United States suggests that the president, a businessman at heart, may not be willing to protect the autonomous island, which Beijing considers Chinese territory. It is seen as an expression of
Sun Yun, China program director at the Washington-based Stimson Center, warned of Chinese nationalist sentiments that could conflict with government officials and elites. Son said, “With Trump’s presence, there is no bottom for U.S.-China relations, and Trump poses great risks and uncertainties, including the possibility of military conflict.” He added that he believed he could attack Taiwan to win re-election.
“While there may be some benefits associated with President Trump potentially damaging alliances and partnerships and undermining global confidence in U.S. leadership, the benefits for China are that he may It will not be able to offset the even more significant damage that will be done,” she said.
President Trump started with the wrong attitude towards China. I made a congratulatory call His victory over Taiwan as president in the 2016 election infuriated Beijing, which opposes any formal contact between Taiwan and foreign governments.
Relations seemed to be back on track after Chinese President Xi Jinping took office in 2017. visited President Trump In April, he hosted the U.S. president for dinner at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, and six months later at the Forbidden City, the former imperial palace in Beijing.
But in 2018, President Trump started a trade war by imposing tariffs on imports from China. China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods, and tariffs on both sides are still in effect.
of COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) The infectious disease outbreak that occurred in China in 2020 pushed President Trump’s relationship with China to a point of no return. As the virus spread to the United States, he sought to deflect criticism of his handling of the pandemic by blaming China, prompting a strong rebuke from Beijing.
When Biden and Trump faced off in 2020, U.S. intelligence agencies reported before the election that China considered Trump “unpredictable” and opposed his re-election. A subsequent assessment released months after the election said China ultimately did not interfere with either side and “considered but did not deploy” influence operations aimed at influencing the outcome. Stated.
Experts say China is also unlikely to interfere in this year’s U.S. presidential election, partly because it doesn’t want to do so and partly because it hasn’t yet built the capacity. It’s for a reason. If Beijing were to intervene, they say, it would likely seek to discredit U.S. democracy, exacerbate partisan discord and undermine confidence in the electoral process.
After being elected, Mr. Biden maintained his predecessor’s China policy. Biden not only kept the tariffs in place, but also restricted Chinese companies’ access to advanced technology, sanctioned Chinese officials for human rights abuses, and expanded restrictions on U.S. funds going to China.
In 2022, Biden administration Secretary of State Antony Blinken called China “the most serious long-term challenge to the international order.”
Then, in early 2023, the U.S. Shooting down Chinese reconnaissance balloon.Establishment required months of diplomacy Meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi The result was some modest agreements and pledges to stabilize relations.
Miles Yu, director of the Hudson Institute’s China Center, said the United States has reached a bipartisan agreement on China, and both parties share “almost the same China policy.” In response, China’s ruling Communist Party said it was adopting a new U.S. policy.
“It doesn’t matter if it’s a black cat or a white cat. As long as it’s an American cat, it’s a bad cat,” Yu said, borrowing a famous saying from Chinese reformist politician Deng Xiaoping. ideology.
But some experts have expressed cautious support for Biden’s steadfastness, which Beijing may value in managing an already strained relationship.
“Trump is inherently unstable, cruel and difficult to get along with,” said Shi Yinghong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China. Shi said that if Biden is re-elected, Beijing can expect to maintain its relationship with the United States, but it is unwilling to deal with Trump’s hysteria toward China and the drastic changes he would make if he returns to the White House. He said there might not be.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Studies at Renmin University of China, said Beijing was more concerned about Mr. Trump’s hostility to globalization than Mr. Biden’s efforts to build global alliances. “I don’t think any one policy is better for China, but the key (for China) is to continue opening up, reform and high-quality development,” Wang said.
But Shi Susi, a veteran Beijing commentator, said China would find it easier to deal with a Trump who just wants to terminate the deal than a Biden who takes a values-based approach to governance.
“Few Chinese people understand Biden’s toughness,” Shi said. “He is a pro-establishment politician. He is a defender of American values. He is working on “Circle of Friends Diplomacy,” which brings together the powers of Western countries to form a circle of friends (against) China. I’m here. From this perspective, we can frankly say that Biden is difficult to deal with. ”
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Tan reported from Washington. Associated Press researchers Yu Bing and Chen Wanqing in Beijing and Associated Press writer Eric Tucker in Washington contributed to this report.