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EU plans for a tougher stance on China risk being thrown off track as disagreements emerge on several issues

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“There is no such thing as a Franco-German couple anymore. It just doesn’t work…The division over China is a typical example,” a French diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

The EU and China cannot agree on key issues. Is this a “recipe for a trade war”?

Despite warnings from lawyers that the EU represents WTO member states and that an informal boycott does not neatly fall under WTO rules, Ms von der Leyen’s self-styled “geopolitical committee” continued to press for charges against China. It was being hung.

As China eases an unofficial embargo and some Lithuanian exports leak out, authorities will force companies to submit documentary evidence from day one amid fears of retaliation. I’m struggling with that.

The EU decided to suspend the case late last month, when a second round of evidence was due to be submitted. Observers question whether the WTO is suited to deal with such issues, although it has been given 12 months to restart.

“China is opaque and it is impossible to prove government intervention,” said Yeo Hankoo, a former South Korean trade minister.

Mr. Yeo worked at the Ministry of Trade during China’s informal boycott of South Korean products and services in response to the U.S. deployment of anti-missile systems in 2016. The South Korean government had considered filing a lawsuit with the WTO, but said it was “done in a very opaque manner.” …Hard evidence is hard to find. ”

Key tenets of risk aversion, plans to screen foreign investment and impose export controls have kicked the hornet’s nest.

Emmanuel Macron, who was pictured with Xi Jinping in Guangdong province last year, said he expected the Chinese leader to visit France later this year. Photo: EPA-EFE

Some capitals were outraged by the conflation of national and economic security, what appeared to be a “power grab” by Brussels, and what one diplomat described as “blind compliance” with U.S. China policy.

The policy is set to run until 2025, and officials believe its best chance of success lies in Beijing’s own actions. “There will be a lot of alarm bells ringing on the roads ahead,” said one official.

Strict corporate supply chain regulations that require large companies to conduct rigorous social, labor and environmental audits of their suppliers are also at risk of collapse.

A final vote scheduled for Friday was postponed at the last minute over concerns it would not pass. Germany has said it will abstain under pressure from business lobbies, and Finland and other countries are reported to be following Berlin’s lead.

Companies are concerned that the plan could lock them out of the Chinese market, and one senior lobbyist has said that while providing the information Brussels wants, it will not be able to clear the Chinese government’s vague anti-espionage and data leakage rules. I have doubts whether it will be possible to comply with this.

The forced labor ban, which is currently being negotiated between the European Parliament and the Council representing member states, could face a similar fate. This law was written with China in mind. Allegations of forced labor in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Regionalthough not directly named.

EU envoy slams China’s ‘obsession with national security’, doubts growth recovery

Negotiators have until March 9 to reach an agreement, or the deal will be put on hold until after the European Parliament elections in June, potentially leading to a major change in the political landscape. However, negotiations are stalling.

“Neither the commission nor the member states want to be responsible for inspections. They don’t want to say they unleashed this monster administration before the elections,” one of the officials said.

One solution, two sources said, is to entrust administration of the ban to the European Labor Office in Bratislava.

But the law is again under threat after Germany abstained under the influence of the pro-business Liberal Democratic wing of the coalition government.

03:36

Chinese government hits back at Western sanctions over China’s alleged treatment of Uyghur Muslims

Chinese government hits back at Western sanctions over China’s alleged treatment of Uyghur Muslims

The EU faces a related dilemma over Chinese solar panels. There, it is caught between banning panels related to Xinjiang and calls for higher import quotas, worrying that climate change targets will not be met without these imports.

Several government officials and diplomats say this is a classic example of competing policy goals. One official said they want to do “everything at the same time,” but it’s unclear what the priorities are.

EU trade officials held in-depth discussions last month on possible measures to protect the solar industry from imports from China, according to people familiar with the talks, but concerns remain within the industry and among member states. Discussion continued due to differences in opinion.

Behind the scenes, officials are worried about Chinese retaliation and the impact of the solar power trade war on the country’s ability to meet climate goals.

Mairead McGuinness, the European Union’s finance chief, said on Monday that Europe’s own industry needs “access to affordable solar panels to drive the green transition and unlock economic opportunities”. He said the company currently relies on parts made in China.

China seeks to increase imports from the EU and requests the EU to ease high-tech export regulations

One of the key vulnerabilities is the solar inverter, known in the industry as the “brain of the solar system,” which allows solar power to be transmitted to the grid. Without them, the entire industry could be at risk.

However, Europe’s largest supplier Huawei TechnologiesThe EU is leaving 5G networks with little debate over the fact that it supplied 26% of Europe’s inverters in 2021, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

The solar debate is emblematic of the broader Franco-German divide at the heart of EU policy.

France, which generated less than 5% of its electricity from solar power last year, will support restrictions on imports of Chinese products. In stark contrast, Germany is increasingly relying on green energy and strongly opposes such policies.

France has also been involved in an investigation into Chinese-made electric cars, which has left German companies disproportionately hit by import tariffs, infuriating Germany.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was photographed with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of 2022, will return to China in April.Photo: Associated Press

“We don’t understand each other,” the French diplomat said, explaining Germany’s idea of ​​strategic autonomy: “With a partner you can do whatever you want and how strategic you want to be about it.” We are the ones who decide.”

They added: “The French believe that everything needs to be done and decided in Europe before we approach other countries.”

Berlin strongly supported pursuing a free trade agreement with South America’s Mercosur bloc, which could support the EU’s de-risking process by withdrawing from Chinese mineral resources.

But France vetoed the deal as President Emmanuel Macron seeks to support a farmers’ vote ahead of the European elections.

02:36

France and EU leaders urge China to ‘bring Russia to its senses’ and stop invasion of Ukraine

France and EU leaders urge China to ‘bring Russia to its senses’ and stop invasion of Ukraine

Meanwhile, Macron predicts that Xi’s first European stop after the coronavirus outbreak will be France. “I think he is before the EU elections because President Macron wants to project his power to change the direction that looks like a very bad outcome for him,” the French diplomat said of the timing. Ta.

A senior EU official said: Serbia It was also scheduled to be included in President Xi’s itinerary.

In the midst of this turmoil, Beijing is looking for a breakthrough.

Ambassador Fu Cong to Brussels recently told senior EU officials that he had received a direct order from Foreign Minister Wang Yi to restore the European Union. Comprehensive agreement on investment It collapsed following retaliatory sanctions over China’s human rights record.
Although such a move is unlikely, Mr. Hu was encouraged by Mr. von der Leyen’s mention of the deal at the meeting, sources said. summit meeting in beijing During December.



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