Written by Parisa Hafezi and Andrew Haley
DUBAI (Reuters) – Chinese officials urge Iran to help curb attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iranian-backed Houthis, otherwise they will damage business ties with Beijing. There are risks, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said.
Discussions about attacks and trade between China and Iran took place during several recent meetings in Beijing and Tehran, Iranian sources said, but gave no details on when they took place or who attended. I didn’t.
“Basically, China is saying, ‘If our interests are harmed in any way, it will affect our business with Iran. So tell the Houthis to restrain themselves,'” said an Iranian who was briefed on the talks. officials told Reuters. Anonymous.
The Houthis have claimed the attack was in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, but it has disrupted a key trade route between Asia and Europe, widely used by ships from China, and is costing transport and insurance costs. is soaring.
However, Chinese officials did not make specific comments or threats about how China-Iran trade relations would be affected if China’s interests were harmed by Houthi attacks. four Iranian intelligence sources said.
China has been Iran’s largest trading partner for the past decade, but the two countries have a lopsided trade relationship.
For example, Chinese oil refiners lost 90 percent of Iranian crude exports last year as U.S. sanctions drove away many other customers and Chinese companies profited from deep discounts, according to tanker tracking data from trade analysis firm Kpler. Purchased more than %.
However, Iranian crude oil only accounts for 10% of China’s crude oil imports, and the Chinese government has many suppliers from other countries that can make up for oil shortages.
Iranian sources said the Chinese government expressed its deep regret to Iran if ships with ties to China were attacked or Iran’s interests were affected in any way.
But while China is important to Iran, Tehran has proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, and regional alliances and priorities play a large role in decision-making. played a role, one Iranian insider said.
Asked for comment on talks with Iran to discuss Red Sea attacks, China’s Foreign Ministry said, “China is a sincere friend of the countries of the Middle East and is committed to promoting regional security and stability and pursuing common development and prosperity.” I’m working hard,” he said. ”
“We firmly support Middle Eastern countries in strengthening their strategic independence and uniting and cooperating to resolve regional security issues,” he told Reuters.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry could not be reached for comment.
axis of resistance
Military strikes by U.S. and British forces against Houthi targets in Yemen this month failed to stop the group from attacking ships. The group controls much of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, and much of the country’s Red Sea coast in the Bab al-Mandab. strait.
The Houthis first emerged in the 1980s as an armed group to counter Saudi Arabia’s Sunni religious influence in Yemen, are armed, financed and trained by Iran, and are part of the anti-Western, anti-Israel Axis of Resistance. Part of it.
A senior U.S. government official said in a conversation that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had with Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao this month that the U.S. government used its influence with Iran to persuade China to sway the Houthis. He said he asked them to persuade him to rein in the situation.
A senior Iranian official said Chinese officials thoroughly discussed their concerns at the meeting, but never mentioned the request from the United States.
On January 14, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for an end to attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea and for maintaining supply chains and the international trade order, without mentioning the Houthis or Iran by name.
Victor Gao, a professor at China’s Soochow University, said the world’s largest trading nation has been disproportionately affected by shipping disruptions and restoring stability in the Red Sea is a priority.
However, Gao, a former Chinese diplomat and advisor to oil giant Saudi Aramco, said Beijing views Israel’s treatment of Palestinians as the root cause of the Red Sea crisis and has no intention of publicly holding the Houthis accountable. He said no.
A US State Department spokesperson declined to comment when asked about bilateral talks between Iran and China on the issue.
Diplomats familiar with the matter said China has been consulting with Iran on the issue, but it was unclear how seriously Iran was taking China’s advice.
Two officials from Yemen’s government, an enemy of the Houthis, said they were aware that several countries, including China, were trying to influence Iran to rein in the Houthis.
Eurasia Group analysts Gregory Belew and International Crisis Group’s Ali Baez said China has potential influence over Iran through its oil purchases, and that Iran is likely to have more influence in the future. He said he hopes to attract more direct investment from China.
But they said China has so far been reluctant to exert influence for several reasons.
“China wants a free ride on the United States defending freedom of navigation in the Red Sea by bleeding the Houthis’ noses,” Baez said, adding that China does not fully control Iran’s ally in Yemen. He added that he was also aware of this.
influence is not absolute
Houthi spokesman Mohamed Abdulsalam said Thursday that Iran has so far not received any message from China about scaling back its attacks.
“They will not inform us of such a request, especially since Iran’s stated position is to support Yemen. Iran condemns the US and UK attack on Yemen and says Yemen’s position is honorable. I think it is a responsible thing to do.”
Four Iranian sources said it was unclear whether Iran would take any action after talks with Beijing.
The stakes are high for Iran, as China is one of the few countries that can provide the billions of dollars of investment Iran needs to maintain its oil sector capacity and keep its economy afloat.
China’s influence was evident in 2023 when it facilitated a deal between Iran and regional rival Saudi Arabia to end years of hostility.
But despite strong economic ties between China and Iran, China’s influence over Tehran’s geopolitical decisions was not absolute, one Iranian insider said.
Some in Iran’s ruling class are questioning the value of its partnership with China, pointing to the relatively low amount of non-oil trade and investment since China and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2021. ing.
Iranian state media says Chinese companies have invested just $185 million since then. State media also reported last year that Iran’s non-oil exports to China fell by 68% in the first five months of 2023, while Iranian imports from China increased by 40%.
In contrast, Chinese companies last year pledged to invest billions of dollars in Saudi Arabia after the kingdom signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2022.
Two Iranian insiders said that while China could not be ignored, Tehran had other priorities to consider and that its decision was shaped by a complex interplay of factors.
“Regional alliances, priorities and ideological considerations will greatly contribute to the Iranian government’s decisions,” one of the people said.
The second official said Iran’s rulers need to adopt a nuanced strategy regarding the Gaza war and the Houthi offensive, and that Iran has no intention of abandoning its allies.
Iran’s role as leader of the “axis of resistance”, which includes the Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hamas, and militias in Iraq and Syria, must be balanced with avoiding becoming drawn into a regional war over Gaza. , Iranian officials said.
One of the people said that for the Iranian government to send a message to and about the Houthis, it would need to deny some extent of its control over them, but at the same time deny some extent to the Houthis’ anti-Israel actions. He also needed the ability to claim credit for his accomplishments.
(Reporting by Parisa Hafezi in Dubai, Andrew Haley in Beijing; Samia Nakoor in Dubai, Trevor Hunnicutt in Washington, Humaira Pamuk in Washington, Arshad Mohammed in Washington, Matt Spetalnik in Aden) Additional reporting by Mohamed Algobari and Greg Torode in Hong Kong; Written by Parisa) Hafezi; Edited by Esther Silbon and David Clark)