Global, Ground War
Finland’s President-elect Alexander Stubb (left) supports China’s participation in Ukraine war peace negotiations (Tim Martin/Defense Breaker)
MUNICH – Finland’s newly elected head of state wants China to play a key role in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, but his comments are unlikely to be welcomed in Washington, which is increasingly focused on China.
Finland’s next president, Alexander Stubbe, who is due to take office next month, told a press conference at the Munich Security Conference today that he expects China to be “involved” in future peace talks. Together with Russia. ”
“The problem we have right now with peace mediation is that it’s so transactional that it doesn’t stick, even though there are a lot of intermediate powers doing the mediation,” Stubb said. He added that a hard border between Russia and Ukraine must be non-negotiable and must be part of any peace agreement.
Sabu’s comments are unlikely to go down well in Washington, D.C., and other parts of Europe, which are wary of China’s growing global efforts. This comment also appears to be completely divorced from the official position of the Chinese government. On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the meeting that the situation was not appropriate to discuss peace talks, Bloomberg reported.
Stubb said the focus on the talks comes amid plans led by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to hold a world peace summit in Switzerland in March or April, which would not include Russia’s participation. He says there is no. Although it remains unclear whether China or other major powers will attend the next summit, Stubb also said that President Zelenskyy is unlikely to push through with his previous “10-point plan” and will instead He also said it was likely to “start little by little” by addressing key issues in the world.
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Stubb said he expected Russia to eventually come to the negotiating table as long as “international pressure” on President Vladimir Putin’s government continues.
“I keep saying that power is the only thing that Putin understands. If you show weakness or soft elements, he will attack,” he explained. “I think we need to understand that if we start moving towards some kind of peace talks, we have to be tough on Russia, especially on Putin, because as you know, Russia is dealing with Ukraine and This is because we have signed an agreement on borders, [agreement] In 1991, [they] didn’t respect that [and] including another agreement in 1994. [they didn’t respect it.”
Stubb reiterated previous comments that Finland will continue to show calm and composure in dealing with the challenge of how Europe should prepare to finance Ukraine’s war effort, should the US decide to pull funding. Trump, the Republican frontrunner ahead of the November presidential elections, has previously threatened such a scenario. Complicating matters further is a hold up to Washington’s latest $60 billion miliary aid package, which continues to draw concern from European officials.
As troubling as that picture looks for international security, Stubb was dubious about fears that the US would “abandon” Europe and Ukraine’s cause.
To follow through on that approach would “radically” weaken the superpower status of the US, in his view, though he specifically acknowledged that the US is “pivoting” strategically to prioritize fighting a future war against China in the Indo-Pacific.
“I personally think that it’s highly unlikely that the United States, no matter who is elected, would stop supporting Ukraine and the reason is very simple,” he explained. “The transactional cost of that is too high. Doesn’t matter who’s president, he or she will understand that supporting Ukraine in this point in time is crucial for American security interests.”
During her visit to Munich, US Vice President Kamala Harris pledged to continue supporting the war, distancing the Biden administration from any notion the US seeks to employ “isolationism.” But Zelenskyy was critical of a three week House recess, saying “Dictators do not go on vacation.”
Stubb Calls On European Financial Institutions To Change
With the war entering its third full year and Ukraine openly stating its desperation for more munitions, pro-Ukrainian leaders in Europe are scrambling to come up with solutions.
Stubb, a former vice-president of the European Investment Bank, called on global institutions like his former office to “change its statute” so defense industry contractors can “start lumping big orders together.”
“Europe must do something” significant, he said, though he admitted such a move is not a “short term” solution that could deliver a potentially decisive blow to Russia’s invasion. Instead, he said, it fits into a wider approach that rests predominately on “steadfast” support from the West, at both a funding and weapons supply level.
Much like other world leaders and defense analysts, Stubb considered ammunition production “a challenge” across Europe, but he is optimistic that the continent’s industrial base can be better restructured, noting that Ursula Von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is expected to deliver a policy paper on the subject soon. He didn’t elaborate on details of what that paper may contain.
One other core element of Ukraine’s path to winning the war sits with the roll out of long-term bilateral pacts between Ukraine and European partners and Ukraine receiving EU membership, according to Stubb.
In line with other high ranking NATO member country officials, he was measured on the prospect of Ukraine joining the alliance, but stopped short of suggesting when exactly Kyiv could be invited to the table.
“I think in the long run, NATO membership for Ukraine is what we should strive for and I’m sure that we’ll see language in that direction as we start moving towards the Washington summit in July, so step by step, but I think the direction is quite clear,” said Stubb. “It’s just a question of time.”
He also joined in with Western officials to blame Putin’s regime for the death of Russian opposition leader Navalny in a Russian prison.
“The most significant thing [at the conference] Navalny’s murder and death is one of the moments in life that will never be forgotten. I would like to express my personal condolences to his family and friends,” Mr Stubbe said. “Russia will and will be responsible for further brutal political murders.”