Taiwanese authorities are investigating 102 cases of foreign interference related to this year’s elections, the highest number since Taiwan enacted an anti-infiltration law in 2019, according to the Supreme Prosecutor’s Office. Many of these concerns China, which has an interest in reclaiming seats. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is pushing for formal independence and believes a more pro-China president will take office.
What happens to these efforts beyond Taiwan is important. Taiwan’s next president’s stance toward China will be a factor in whether China launches a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which could involve the United States and neighboring countries and disrupt global shipping lanes and the supply of critical technology. .
Moreover, influence strategies that have proven useful in Taiwan may be replicated elsewhere. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu warned on Tuesday that “there will be more than 40 important democratic elections around the world in 2024.” If China succeeds in Taiwan, it will use its experience to interfere in elections in other countries. ”
But measuring the impact, or even presence, of China’s influence efforts is becoming more difficult. China is wary of going too far, aware that too blatant tactics could drive voters away from China’s favored party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and toward the Democratic Progressive Party, which is leading in opinion polls. It seems like it is.
“There’s a real chance it could backfire,” said Alexander Dukalskis, associate professor at University College Dublin and author of “Making the World Safe for Dictatorship.” “People don’t want to be bullied and intimidated into telling them how to vote.”
The Biden administration has warned China not to intervene, and Beijing has accused the Democratic Progressive Party of “hyping” military threats from China to win votes.
“China has been hitting it with so many different kinds of mechanisms that, at least for now, the least popular candidate for China is likely to win,” said a senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. . Regarding the confidentiality of the issue. “So this shows that the system is becoming more resilient.”
Whether or not these measures affect elections, they could steadily and gradually advance China’s objectives in Taiwan. “If you can influence 3 to 5 percent of the people, you can influence the election results,” said Zhang Chun-hao, a political science professor at Tokai University in Taiwan. “Even if it didn’t affect the election results, it still promoted the unification movement.”
There are four main ways in which the Chinese government is accused of trying to interfere in Taiwan’s presidential election this year:
1. Confusion of sowing information
Previously, Chinese misinformation in Taiwan was easy to catch, mainly due to vocabulary used in China and clumsily written news articles and social media posts in simplified Chinese rather than traditional Chinese used in Taiwan. It had been. Now that campaign is localized, Chinese propaganda actors are encouraged to escalate genuine local conflicts and divisions, said Tim Niven, research director at Taiwan’s Doublethink Lab. Ta. “Taiwan is becoming more polarized,” he said.
Over the past year, there have been reports that Taiwanese authorities, on orders from Washington, have been taking blood samples from Taiwanese citizens to manufacture genetic weapons against China, and that the United States has forced Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC to set up a factory. Various rumors are flying around. Arizona could abandon Taiwan and its chip supply chain.
The idea that the United States was not a reliable partner, a concept known as Emeirun, persisted for months. Or “American skepticism,” which has gained attention thanks to consistent amplification by Chinese media.
Beijing’s influence campaign also taps into a network of local Beijing-friendly content creators.Taiwanese authorities are investigating It’s a digital media company that operates more than 20 Facebook pages, has a large following, and regularly criticizes the Democratic Party.
The group’s owners were provided content and financial support by journalists from Chinese state media, according to screenshots of conversations shared with the Washington Post by security officials involved in the incident.
The police officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide details of the ongoing investigation, said Chinese propagandists are paying Taiwanese influencers to spread rhetoric that undermines Taiwan’s democratic process. He said there are many. In some cases, the purpose is not necessarily to support a particular candidate, but rather to disrupt the election and “disrupt the election.”
2. Cooperation with local government officials
Over the past year, China has brought hundreds of Taiwanese local-level officials to Chinese cities. Taiwan’s public prosecutor’s office says overt incitement is taking place there, including handing out vouchers for the streaming platform iQiyi and instructing visitors to vote for pro-unification candidates.
These exchanges, which are facilitated by heavily subsidized business trips by Taiwanese officials to China and expected to return with pro-China messages, serve as an avenue for grassroots influence activities. It has been seen for a long time. Taiwanese authorities are investigating 40 people regarding these visits and possible election interference.
In other cases, the message was more subtle. Chinese officials reminded Taiwanese guests to remember that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are “one family,” according to officials who participated in the exchanges. Some said they were careful not to say anything about the election because Chinese organizers feared it would jeopardize their visit.
“They will say that mainland China really wants both sides of the Taiwan Strait to be united and everyone to sit down and talk,” said a Taipei-area village chief who visited China twice last year. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he is one of the targets of the investigation.
“They all want to promote unity or instill your ideas. It’s just that some use more subtle methods and some use cruder methods.” he said.
3. Wielding economic sticks and carrots
Starting January 1, China withdrew preferential tariffs on 12 compounds from Taiwan. China’s Commerce Ministry said Tuesday it is considering the possibility of canceling other tariff concessions on agriculture, seafood, machinery, auto parts and textiles, with Chinese officials saying the Democratic Progressive Party maintains its “pro-independence position” He said the measures would continue if the situation arises.
At the same time, the Chinese government is dangling a carrot to other countries that show loyalty to China. In June, Chinese authorities resumed imports of sugar apples from some companies, which had previously been banned, after the mayor of Taitung, a sugar apple-growing region, visited China with the Nationalist Party’s vice president.
In December, China announced that it would resume imports of some grouper species after banning them in June. However, only six individual companies and one company whose chairman visited China in the previous month will be allowed to import.
“The goal is to tell voters who have economic ties to China that they should vote for candidates.” [Beijing] ,” said Chio Yi-hun, associate professor of international relations at National Yangming Jiaotong University.
4. Intensification of military intimidation in the “gray zone”
Over the past year, China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, has increased its military incursions near Taiwan to remind its people of Beijing’s promise to “reunify” the island by force if necessary.
In the run-up to the election, China appears to be using new forms of “gray zone” tactics, aggressive means aimed at deterring and intimidating short of open conflict. Since December, China has sent at least 31 high-altitude balloons (like the one spotted and shot down over the United States last year) into Taiwanese airspace. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense said the balloons were a “perception war” aimed at demoralizing Taiwan’s 23 million people.
On Tuesday, days before the polls began, China launched a satellite that unexpectedly passed over southern Taiwan before entering space, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense. The launch triggered an unprecedented national emergency alert, with the English version incorrectly describing the object in question as a “high-flying missile” and alarming residents.
Meng reported from San Francisco. Ellen Nakashima in Washington contributed to this report.