Taipei, Taiwan – In early 2021, Chien and his fellow pineapple farmers in southern Taiwan received bad news. China added the crop to its list of prohibited imports, citing concerns about pests and other safety issues.
At the time, Taiwanese pineapple farmers were sending almost all of their fruit to China, an industry worth $284 million a year, even accounting for the coronavirus pandemic. Within a month, the price of pineapple had fallen from 60 cents per 600 grams to just a penny, Chien said.
“As soon as the news came out, within a month, everything collapsed,” he said, asking that his full name not be used for fear of economic repercussions because he sells pineapples to Hong Kong.
To make matters worse, he added, the recently harvested crops could not be sold domestically or exported to neighboring countries such as Japan and Hong Kong due to quality issues.
“Taiwan has not promoted export products much because it has relied on China in the past. Farmers were very nervous about the political situation and prices were very low because pineapples were not selling,” he said. told Al Jazeera.
Over the next few months, the Chinese government, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, announced further bans on other tropical fruits, including the custard-like sugar apple and the crunchy, pear-shaped wax apple. did.
For observers in Taiwan, the import ban had little to do with food safety or pesticide concerns. This appeared to be another example of Beijing expressing anger at the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which it considers to be “separatist” and keen on independence.
“Clear correlation”
Since the Democratic Progressive Party took power under President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, Beijing has carried out military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, attacked Taiwan’s last few diplomatic allies, and incited online misinformation campaigns. It has resorted to various coercive measures to weaken the government. Isolate autonomous islands from international organizations.
The Chinese government has also turned to economic coercion, banning individual travelers from visiting Taiwan in 2019, and in 2021 imposing fines on Taiwanese companies operating in China, including Far East Group, and moving away from fruit and fish products. The import of Taiwanese products is prohibited until now.
Attacking Taiwanese farmers like Cheng has limited economic impact on Taiwan’s economy, but the message is clear to Taiwan watchers.
Many of the farmers live in southern Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party’s stronghold. In August 2022, China banned the import of more than 2,000 products from Taiwan, including biscuits and pastries, in protest of then-US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s historic visit to Taiwan.
These efforts are continuing in preparation for Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13th. As election season began last April, the Chinese government announced a major investigation into Taiwan’s trade practices, and last month ruled that Taiwan had unfairly imposed “trade barriers” on the island. Over 2,000 Chinese products.
“This schedule perfectly coincides with Taiwan’s presidential election. Trade is used as a bargaining chip to influence Taiwanese voters’ distrust of the Democratic Progressive Party’s governance and reduce its credibility in dealing with cross-Strait trade disputes. “There appears to be a clear correlation indicating China’s intention to exploit the issue,” wrote Chunwei Ma, an assistant professor at the university. The international situation of Tam Kang University was mentioned in a recent report on this issue.
The aim, Ma said, is to encourage voters to move away from presidential candidates like William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party and toward parties that are more “pro-China.”
Taiwan’s government has also accused Beijing of interfering in elections through economic coercion, such as when China ended tariff cuts on more than a dozen petrochemicals imported from Taiwan in late December, just as voters were beginning to make their final decisions. I’m accusing them of being there.
Similar claims were made in November when the Chinese government targeted Apple supplier Foxconn with a surprise tax audit, a move that put company founder Terry Gou in the running for president. It was widely seen as a rebuke of his decision to run for office.
Wellington Koo said the move was also met with “political concerns” from Taiwan’s National Security Council, as the Chinese government did not want Mr. Guo to split the opposition party in the next election and increase the chances of a Democratic Progressive Party victory. ‘ was criticized.
In contrast, the more conservative Kuomintang (KMT) has a long cooperative relationship with the Chinese government. The independent Taiwan People’s Party also called for more cooperation and renegotiation of the controversial trade in services agreement with China.
Still, despite Beijing’s flurry of activity, Taiwanese experts such as Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program, say Beijing’s economic coercion remains in check and has the potential to They argue that it is mostly symbolic compared to the possible damage.
According to Taiwan data, cross-Strait trade volume in 2022 will reach $205 billion, making China Taiwan’s largest trading partner and its position has considerable influence. The Chinese government has shown it is not afraid to punish other close trading partners. For example, in 2021 it blocked coal and other imports from Australia after the City of Canberra called for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19.
“Unlike in the case of Australia, South Korea, and other countries, which aim to punish and deter other countries from challenging China’s interests, economic pressure on Taiwan has been small-scale and aimed at preventing Taiwan’s independence. It is part of a broader strategy to promote unity,” Glaser told Al Jazeera in an email.
Analysts say Beijing has not yet targeted Taiwan’s vital semiconductor industry, the world’s largest, or the landmark 2010 Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, which lowered tariffs on key exports and imports. He points out.
Glaser feels that economic coercion by the Chinese government is likely to have the greatest impact on undecided voters.
“The use of economic coercion to influence Taiwan’s elections is just one of the tools used by the Chinese government,” she said. “It is unlikely to have an impact on the voters who are the support base.” [KMT] and [DPP] Or someone who has already decided who to vote for. But it could have some impact on voters who are still undecided. ”
new generation of voters
While China relies on old methods to sway voters, Taiwan’s electorate is changing.
Voters born near the end of martial law and who later consider themselves Taiwanese rather than Chinese are tired of their northern neighbor’s domineering attitude and punishment for asserting their identity.
They also grew up in a much more stable environment than some of their parents or grandparents. They may have missed out on the economic boom of his 1970s and 1980s, but they grew up with an overall higher standard of living, with benefits such as health insurance and extensive higher education.
Austin Wang, who studies Taiwanese public opinion at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said China’s coercive activities are starting to backfire on Taiwan during its transition period.
“Economic benefits from China have certainly influenced public opinion in Taiwan in the past,” he said.
“Older generations who experienced poverty valued economics over identity. However, since Taiwan’s younger generation entered the post-materialist era, economic benefits have changed their identity and attitudes toward independence. There are very few.”
As Taiwan’s political situation changes, its economic presence in China is also declining. Partly due to the impact of the pandemic, the number of Taiwanese working in China has fallen from a high of 261,000 in 2011 to a low of 163,000 in 2021, according to government data.
Some companies operating there have doubts about their future prospects.
In a 2022 survey of 500 Taiwanese companies conducted by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 60.8% of respondents said they were doing business in China, while 76.83% said Taiwan was It became clear that people felt there was a need to reduce their economic dependence.
A quarter of respondents said they had already moved some of their business outside of China, and a third were considering moving some of their business.
Farmers on the ground in Taiwan have similar feelings.
The Chinese government lifted its ban on Taiwanese pineapples in 2023, but it was also a lesson in why we need to reduce our dependence on China.
He explained that during the three years they were locked out of the Chinese market, farmers worked with the government to grow high-quality pineapples that could be exported to more demanding markets in Hong Kong and Japan.
As business and prices rise, older farmers may return to business as usual, but the younger generation will not forget what happened, Chien said.
“We don’t want to be used as a bargaining chip, because even if it’s a sunny day, [Chinese market] “Even if the president is removed and another is elected, the situation will not change,” he said. “If China is dissatisfied, we could get canceled or banned, and this is a very unhealthy trade relationship.”