Nur Rakhmat Yuliantoro, dean of international relations at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said Prabowo could use Indonesia’s non-aligned status to benefit from the interests of the two competing superpowers in the country. Ta.
“He sees China as a major actor that can adequately counter the power of the other major actor, the United States,” Noor said. “Indonesia is likely to continue to take a middle position, seeking to make the most of the security advantages available to it.”
01:48
US President Biden talks with Indonesian President Widodo about possible mineral partnership
US President Biden talks with Indonesian President Widodo about possible mineral partnership
money is important
Indonesia, which has the world’s largest nickel reserves, banned nickel ore exports in 2020 as part of a strategy to establish a competitive electric vehicle and battery supply chain. China is an avid investor, pumping US$3.6 billion into Indonesia’s nickel sector in the first half of 2022 alone.
Chinese investment is also crucial to Indonesia’s infrastructure push led by Widodo, particularly in projects such as Southeast Asia’s first high-speed rail line, which opened in Jakarta in October.
Noor predicted that Prabowo would continue Widodo’s policies and maintain close ties with the Chinese government “especially in the context of investment and infrastructure development.”
He argued that the relationship Indonesia had built with China during Widodo’s tenure was “too valuable to change dramatically” and that doing so would “only cause Indonesia harm.”
During a visit to Jakarta last September, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged US$21.7 billion in new Chinese investment in Indonesia, a previous commitment made when President Widodo met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in July last year. In addition to US$44.89 billion.
“And for Prabowo, from a policy perspective, it would be fine to just move forward like this.”
But Pepinski also said debt concerns made it unlikely that the former general would get any closer to China in hopes of getting more infrastructure funding.
“I think he recognizes the fate of countries like Sri Lanka and Kenya that are dependent on Chinese investment, but China will not renegotiate those debts.”
During last month’s presidential debate, Prabowo said Indonesia is now in a good position to repay its external debt at a pace that prevents other countries from destroying its sovereignty.
He said, “Currently, it turns out that Japan’s external debt is around 40% of GDP, one of the lowest in the world.” “With prudent and good management and a sound economic strategy, especially through our downstream sector, we can now strengthen our bargaining position.
“I’m not really worried about other countries trying to interfere with us. We’re highly respected and we’ll never default on our debts. [on our debt]. We must have a strong defense against interference. ”
09:10
Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China conflict
Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China conflict
According to central bank data, Indonesia’s external debt reached US$393.7 billion, or 28.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), in the third quarter of 2023.
Ahmad Rizki Umar, a lecturer at the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Queensland in Australia, said the scrutiny has forced Prabowo’s economic team to “look for other sources of investment” to diversify the country’s portfolio. said. But he noted that as long as investment from China remains strong, it is likely to remain that way.
sea of conflict
“Proper management of the South China Sea will strengthen the equal and mutually beneficial partnership that is sorely needed to create global peace and stability,” he said in a statement.
However, when the South China Sea came up during a presidential debate in January, Prabowo emphasized the need for Indonesia to strengthen its maritime defense capabilities to defend itself in the North Natuna Sea.
Indonesia walks a ‘political’ tightrope with China over arms trade with Manila
Indonesia walks a ‘political’ tightrope with China over arms trade with Manila
“I don’t think Prabowo is instigating the fight, but it will be interesting to see what happens if another incident occurs.” [in the Natunas]That’s almost certainly going to happen,” said Cornell University’s Pepinski.
Mr Prabowo’s election manifesto also stated that the South China Sea is a strategic challenge for Jakarta and that future US-China conflict over the disputed waterway should be anticipated to minimize potential threats to Indonesia. ing.
He will aspire to be seen as the type of person who can sit with Xi Jinping and other Chinese heads of state.
Minimization could take the form of further diplomacy. Pepinski suggested that Prabowo could seek to play a more “accommodating” role if China continues to pose a strategic challenge to Indonesia’s Southeast Asian neighbors in the South China Sea.
On foreign policy in general, the University of Queensland’s Umar said Prabowo wanted to take on a more active international role than his predecessor.
Biden praises ‘new era’ in US-Indonesia relations as President Jokowi calls for ceasefire in Gaza
Biden praises ‘new era’ in US-Indonesia relations as President Jokowi calls for ceasefire in Gaza
Umar also claimed that Prabowo wants to “strengthen relations with the United States at the defense level, especially around the South China Sea.” Like many Indonesian generals, Prabowo gained extensive experience in the West as part of his military training. He received part of his education at Fort Bragg in the United States, now called Fort Liberty, and in Germany, illustrating Indonesia’s decades-long relationship with the United States regarding defense, which soon became will not be imitated by China.
“Prabowo will maintain balance.” [in the US-China rising rivalry] By building stronger ties with the United States in the defense field, especially in the context of modernizing Indonesia’s defense equipment,” Umar said.
In fact, the former general has often talked about the importance of strengthening Indonesia’s military in order to transform Indonesia into a strong country capable of defending its interests, both as a politician and as Minister of Defense. It is. It remains to be seen whether the interests he will prioritize during his time in office will align with or conflict with China’s interests.