A military confrontation between China and the United States is the last thing the world needs at a time when Russia is making gains in Ukraine and the Middle East appears to be on the brink of further regional conflict.
But at first glance, it may appear that China is bracing for a long-term conflict with the United States over Taiwan, an autonomous island of 24 million people claimed by the mainland.
In his New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that Taiwan would “definitely reunite” with China. This is especially important as Taiwan is just days away from its January 13 national election. This outcome could result in a more pro-Beijing government opting for closer ties, or, for now, is seen as more likely to result in Taiwan’s leaders wanting to keep Beijing in arms. length.
The election will pit the pro-independence Democratic Party (DP) against the conservative Kuomintang (Kuomintang). Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-de, who is leading in opinion polls, has often said that she is more outspoken in advocating for Taiwanese independence than her predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, who took a more diplomatic approach believing there was no need for Taiwanese independence. It’s been said. The island was a sovereign state and expressed support for his independence.
For Beijing, a formal declaration of independence is a red line that cannot be crossed, so any change in policy or statement of support for independence is likely to be seen by Beijing as an invitation to take military action. In contrast, the Kuomintang is seen as closer to China. The United States has traditionally supported Taiwan’s semi-independent status and views it as a useful regional ally. All of these factors, coupled with the escalation of Chinese military flights over Taiwan’s airspace, point to Taiwan as a potential trigger for a traditional U.S.-China conflict.
Other important metrics
There are other important metrics to keep in mind. China’s military has expanded and modernized over the past five years, and advances in hypersonic missile technology give China an advantage as the United States does not yet field comparable missiles.
It is also important to note that, especially since 2017, there has been a growing recognition among the Chinese public that the United States is an enemy, as part of government discourse. This is a common theme among Chinese netizens, many of whom tend to be more nationalistic than the government. teeth.
AP Photo/Chiang Yingying/Alamy
technical battle
The United States and China are already engaged in economic and technological competition. This situation continues despite an apparent thaw in relations at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference in 2023, with the presidents of the United States and China sitting down for four hours to talk and discuss military options that could avoid an accidental military conflict. They agreed to resume communications between the two countries. escalation.
At the time, Biden suggested he might appear to distance himself somewhat from hard-line policies aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese technology. The administration does not allow U.S. semiconductor manufacturers to sell to China and has encouraged allies to block sales of high-tech chip manufacturing exports. Dutch manufacturer ASML has stopped shipping chip manufacturing machinery to China, apparently due to pressure from the US government. The race for economic and technological superiority has already begun.
Read more: Why America’s tech war against China could backfire
This competition between China and the US is similar to the US-Japan conflict of the 1980s and early 1990s. There, Japan’s economic development and technological prowess aroused significant concern among U.S. policymakers, and by the late 1980s Japan was seen as a greater challenge than China. USSR.
However, although Beijing is adapting to the new reality of an increasingly adversarial Sino-American relationship, this does not mean that China is clearly keen on starting a long-term conflict. China is adapting to large-scale challenges amidst a struggling economy, which has made Beijing somewhat reluctant to move to war mode despite confrontational rhetoric.
Both parties have reservations
China’s large industrial capacity and the decline in Western military stockpiles resulting from the Ukraine war mean that a conflict with China is unacceptable for the United States.
This was further emphasized by several simulation exercises related to the Taiwan conflict conducted by the US military in 2020. They found that 9 out of 10 possible outcomes would end in US defeat. A potential conflict with China therefore poses a significant challenge to US power.
It is clear that the current crisis provides China with an opportunity to gain understanding of current military challenges and brings certain benefits. The Ukraine conflict has brought some economic benefits to China, most notably in the form of greater access to Russian oil and gas, which has been the lifeblood of many European industries with which Chinese companies have competed. Similarly, tensions in the Middle East have become a distraction for the United States, which has had to focus more on the Middle East and Ukraine rather than engage in a serious confrontation with China. These crises have bought China time to prepare for what comes next.
These events show what kind of knowledge China has accumulated. In the case of Ukraine, this is the importance of industrial production to the war, and Russia’s industrial base allows Moscow to continue the conflict. It also highlighted the limits of NATO’s ability to provide supplies to Ukraine.
The fragility of maritime power was exposed by the Houthis’ blockade of the Red Sea. This demonstrated the potential of using missile and drone technology to counter more powerful countries. In China’s case, this could take the form of China using its anti-ship and hypersonic missile capabilities to challenge Washington’s naval power.
What is becoming clear is that the Chinese government is increasingly preparing for possible conflict. This preparation could help determine the outcome in favor of the Chinese government.