Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and far-right “frenemy” Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini have largely kept their confrontations under control since forming a coalition government in late 2022.
But tensions are likely to rise ahead of June’s European Parliament elections as Mr Salvini seeks to rebuild support in his far-right coalition, which is being eclipsed by Mr Meloni’s Italian Brotherhood (FdI).
“He will try to make himself as visible as possible to steal votes from her,” said Giovanni Orsina, a political science professor at Rome’s Luis University. “He’s going to be more and more troubled.”
When Italians last voted in EU elections five years ago, Salvini was at the height of his popularity, winning 34% of the vote and leading the federation to victory. Meloni’s FdI, which has its political roots in the neo-fascist Italian social movement founded by supporters of Benito Mussolini after World War II, was considered a fringe party and received less than 6.5% of the vote.
But since then, Meloni’s popularity has grown far more while Salvini’s star has waned. In Italy’s 2022 general election, FdI won nearly 26 percent of the vote to the Federation’s 9 percent, propelling Meloni to the position of driving the ruling alliance. Recent opinion polls show support for Mr Meloni’s party is growing further as the federation struggles to catch up.
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Analysts believe Mr. Salvini is trying to regain support and avoid further questions about his stewardship of the federation, while Mr. Meloni is seeking to confirm his status as Italy’s preeminent right-wing leader.
“She wants confirmation that she is the leader of the centre-right,” said Ernesto Di Giovanni, a partner at Rome-based political consultancy Utopia. “That would establish her as Italy’s most important politician.”
As a result, analysts expect competition within the ruling coalition to become even more intense and visible. But given both leaders’ desire to remain in power, few expect relations to deteriorate enough to threaten government stability.
“A lot of it will be for show,” said Daniele Albertazzi, a political science professor at the University of Surrey. “I don’t think there’s any chance of this coalition collapsing.”
Meloni, once a fierce Eurosceptic, has since taken office and is ready to work constructively with Brussels and other EU capitals, seeking to re-establish himself as a more mainstream conservative leader.
Her staunch support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression also sets her apart from other far-right European leaders with historical ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party.
Meloni is currently being courted by the center-right European People’s Party, which hopes to secure support for Ursula von der Leyen’s second term as president of the European Commission. thinking.
“Mr. Meloni has chosen a strategy to take responsibility, be accepted and prove that Italy’s right-wing government is not a disaster,” Orsina said. “She’s moving to the center— [albeit] There are many ambiguities. ”
Di Giovanni said Meloni hopes to appeal to the type of conservative voters who have historically supported the late Silvio Berlusconi. His death last year created uncertainty over the future of the Forza Italia party, which is part of Meloni’s coalition government. “She’s moving somewhere else. [part of the] The voters — not the far right, but more moderate,” Di Giovanni said.
Meanwhile, Salvini has strengthened his alliance with far-right Eurosceptic groups, including France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, and Germany’s AfD politicians.
“His message to voters is: ‘If you’re angry, if you’re Eurosceptic, if you continue to be hostile to the mainstream’… I’m the one who votes,” Orsina said.
Illegal immigration is a hot-button issue for Italy’s right, but one area where Meloni could come under fire after a 50% increase in illegal migrants arriving in Italy last year.
When migrant reception centers on the Italian island of Lampedusa filled up in the fall, the alliance’s deputy leader, Andrea Crippa, said Meloni’s efforts to find a European solution to the migrant crisis had failed. said. Salvini then declared that “desperate times call for drastic measures” and proposed a naval blockade to prevent migrants from landing.
Meloni has sought to pre-empt renewed criticism by admitting in December that he had not yet been able to “deliver the expected results” on what he called “the most complex phenomenon.” But she insisted she would continue to work to curb illegal immigration after securing an agreement with Albania to set up a migration center under Italian authorities.
But analysts say that as elections approach, Meloni may be forced to take more firm positions on EU issues to reassure her traditional base that she has not strayed from her political roots. It is pointed out that there is.
In December, FdI disappointed some in Brussels by voting against reforming the eurozone rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and ending hopes that Italy, the only EU member state yet to ratify the reform, would join. was crushed.
“I don’t expect a major rift, but there will be competition over who is more nationalist and sovereignist,” said Natalie Tocci, director of the Rome Institute of International Studies.
Analysts are skeptical that Mr. Salvini’s tactics will yield results, and the bigger risk for Mr. Meloni is that if his party’s performance is too strong, a real rift could develop between the coalition partners. Point out that this is true.
“If she goes too far and performs much better compared to the national election results, the balance will tip significantly in her favor,” Tocci said. “That might not be good for her. It could jeopardize the ruling coalition, and she has the biggest stake in it.”