In ancient Rome, Janus was worshiped as a dual-faced god of beginnings and transitions. Therefore, the first month of the year, he received the name January. In modern Rome, Giorgia Meloni’s government has adopted a Janus-like posture in the face of a new global environment. Her government’s foreign policy includes active support for and close alliances with Western countries. Domestically, illiberal and even harsh rhetoric sets the tone on social issues and immigration.
When President Meloni took office in October 2022, the world was experiencing the most comprehensive and rapid changes since the end of the Cold War. Like NATO and his EU allies, the new government could not afford to stick to the deal. current situation. This is not only due to the serious nature of the changes, such as the Ukraine war and the global pandemic, but also because Italy is expected to take responsibility commensurate with its rise to power in the EU, which has been weakened by the loss of the UK. It was also because he had been .
Since 2019, Europe, the United States, and the world have seen several important changes that affect the policies of all countries, including Italy.
global pandemic. In Europe, Italy was the first and worst hit by the coronavirus, a country with the most vulnerable population in Europe. The economy and foreign trade slumped. Trade and investment between EU member states and China, which had been growing dynamically, has declined sharply. The coronavirus has particularly hurt Italy’s view of China, as the Chinese government has denied responsibility for the spread of the disease. China has largely excluded wealthy European countries from its coronavirus diplomacy, even as it touts aid measures. In return, Italy received billions of euros in coronavirus aid from the EU, and while Western countries were able to respond and recover quickly, China suffered through a nationwide lockdown.
different EU. As of 2021, Italy has become the region’s third largest economy and second largest military power. Brexit left Italy with the third largest source of Chinese investment within the EU (after Germany and France), a difference that became even more significant after the EU introduced a foreign investment screening mechanism in 2020. . It is also the third major customer for Chinese products, accounting for almost 18% of Italy’s non-EU imports. Italy’s Chinese community is the largest in Europe, numbering over 300,000 people.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s decision to invade a neighboring country galvanized Western opposition to international aggression in a way that the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the creation of a puppet state in eastern Ukraine did. NATO has been reinvigorated and expanded. Against all expectations, the EU adopted and expanded its existing trade and financial sanctions against Russia. This has forced virtually all of Europe to drastically cut back on imports of energy (particularly natural gas) from Russia and shift to alternative suppliers such as Algeria and the United States. Before the war, 40% of Italy’s gas imports came from Russia. A year later, that number was more than halved. Both NATO and the EU have achieved a status and influence not seen since the era of the fall of communism in Eastern Europe. In Russia, by contrast, the country’s isolation and Vladimir Putin’s authoritarianism have resulted in the exit of more than 1,000 multinational companies and the exodus of half a million of Russia’s most talented citizens.
weakening of china. Over the past decade, China’s once robust growth rate has declined, and that decline has been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath. Both inward and outward direct investment have fallen sharply, with Chinese investment in Europe down more than 40% since its peak in 2018. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, the Chinese government’s policies, such as giving preferential treatment to its own state-owned enterprises, reflected the country’s heavily skewed trade balance and lack of reserves. The promise of growth did not favor China’s case. As European suspicions about predatory China policies grew and relations between China and the United States soured, global companies became wary and sought recompense from other countries. China’s presence in world markets has declined (exports fell by nearly 5% in 2023) and shifted to friendlier political allies, such as Russia, where trade has increased by more than 26%.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has substituted nationalism for weakening economic effectiveness, strengthened China’s military presence in the South China Sea, and parroted Russia’s views on the causes of the war with Ukraine. In addition to the reduction and criticism of the flagship Belt and Road Initiative, China’s stance as a defender of national sovereignty has been severely undermined. China’s statements and actions have triggered further defensive security postures in Japan, Australia, NATO, and the EU, as well as unprecedented political and military cooperation in South Asia and the South Pacific. More directly, Moscow, emulating Beijing, stoked concerns about China with the theme “Ukraine is Taiwan’s future.” In today’s distorted, multipolar world, China’s influence and power is at its lowest level since the creation of the Belt and Road.
US-China tensions. Confrontational trade policies that began under the volatile Donald Trump administration have continued under President Joseph Biden, primarily focused on restricting China’s access to high-end technology. According to AEI’s Global Investment Tracker, U.S.-China trade will fall by more than 13% in 2023, and Chinese investment in the U.S. will “nearly disappear.” Military operations and rhetoric surrounding Taiwan and recent elections have raised Taiwan’s profile to levels not seen since the Cold War. Actual and proposed restrictions on China’s investment and trade with the United States are also being mirrored in Europe, as the EU pursues a “de-risking” strategy to reduce dependence on Chinese goods and finance. As President Xi Jinping tightens his grip on power and continues repressive measures against groups such as the Uyghurs, pressure grows on Europeans to speak out, and member states such as Italy and the EU’s own institutions have also spoken out. .
war in the middle east. The long and tense conflict between Israel and the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip erupted into brutal violence on October 7, 2023, with terrorist attacks on kibbutzniks, music festival participants, and other civilians. That attack and Israel’s devastating response in Gaza meant everything. The “equilibrium” that allowed European countries and the United States to pursue a slow and steady path towards “normalization” in the region has been destroyed. Governments around the world are forced to respond to this war and other regional impacts within the constraints of alliances and complex societies.
Italy’s right-leaning elections
Founded in 2012, Meloni’s Brothers (Italy)Fratelli d’Italia) The party has long been away from politics, receiving less than 2 percent of the vote in the 2013 general election and less than 5 percent in 2018. The collapse of the diverse coalition led by the Five Star Movement in 2019 resulted in a government led by the Five Star Movement for the second consecutive year. The new coalition government, led by Giuseppe Conte and former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, lasted for 20 months. Amid this shift in power relations, Giorgia Meloni’s 2022 campaign combines right-wing political and social positions with a deeply personal stance. She made a promise under the slogan “defending the Italian nation”.Pronti” (Ready). Still, she demonstrated moderate positions on geopolitical issues and a firm commitment to the EU, NATO, and the transatlantic partnership. Meloni toned down her anti-EU rhetoric and expressed her full support for Ukraine.
Turning inward, he promised to reverse the country’s “economic, social and cultural decline” and promote tax cuts for Italian businesses and families, protections for Italian businesses and workers, and policies to boost birthrates. During her campaign, she portrayed herself as a hard-working, unmarried mother living (at the time) with the father of her child. In the 2022 election, the Italian Brothers came in first place with 26% of the vote.they formed a coalition that included nationalists rega (League) Center-right wing led by Matteo Salvini forza italy (Go Italia) At the time, it was led by Silvio Berlusconi.
One year after taking office as prime minister and following the death of Silvio Berlusconi in June 2023, Meloni remains the most popular politician in the country with an approval rating of 44%, and his party’s approval rating It is 30%. Although Meloni’s government represents the most right-leaning coalition in the history of the Italian republic, fears that it would lead Italy down a path to the radical right, with dire consequences for the Western alliance, have not come true. do not have. At the same time, the government is following a scenario of calculated attacks on cultural movements deemed dangerous to the country and its people. It promises to limit immigration, particularly from Africa. Meloni’s efforts, which make far more use of executive orders than his predecessors, have outpaced influence, including defeating proposals in Congress as unconstitutional or watered down, such as the Selective Admissions Act and a ban on adult male immigration. It’s for show.
New muscular partner
Despite the domestic rhetoric, Meloni’s approach to foreign policy and activism has encouraged Atlantic allies. Italy is currently the most capable naval power in the Mediterranean. Turkey is increasingly seen as a preferred partner in the country as NATO ally Turkey clashes with Greece and is reluctant to sever economic ties with Russia. Ankara has been denied the sale of its state-of-the-art F-35 fighter jets due to its purchase of Russian anti-missile systems, but Italy’s highly skilled engineering department will play a key role in the production and sale of the jets. Fulfilling.