‘Likely to provoke China’: European powers strengthen presence in Indo-Pacific – Southeast Asia’s reaction is mixed

“This was done unilaterally, without consultation, and directly threatened Europe’s supply lines to the industrial economies of Northeast Asia,” he said, adding that “without exception” Europe’s navies would counter China’s Indo-Pacific strategy. He added that Japan responded by strongly supporting each country’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to Growing influence.

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But Mr Hemmings said a growing presence of European powers would not make the region safer, and that these countries currently have “low-level commitments to the region, such as expanding naval groups, alliances and military bases.” This is because they are only able to provide the following.

“There are severe economic, resource and distance constraints on their ability to contribute to this region,” he says.

“For example, if the United States does everything in its power to defend Taiwan, it is unclear whether they will have the will to defend it.” [the island]”

“It’s not necessarily productive.”

The Visiting Forces Agreement will reportedly open new avenues for more sophisticated military-to-military cooperation and improve interoperability and maritime domain awareness between the two countries.

Earlier this year, the Italian maritime patrol vessel Francesco Morosini undertook a five-month deployment to the region, including a port call in Yokosuka, home to the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.

The Italian Navy also plans to send its main aircraft carrier Cavour and battlegroup to the region early this year.

Arischo Rizka Darmawan, a lecturer in international law at the University of Indonesia, described the growing presence of European powers as “interesting, but not too surprising”, which is in line with increasing geopolitical change in the region. , said this was due to the importance of navigation and security.

“But in addition to that, China’s role in the region is growing,” he said, adding that the growing presence of European countries “is not necessarily productive.”

“Indonesia has traditionally always been cautious about extraterritorial military presence in the region, and Malaysia is also important to this presence,” Aristillo said.

“The Philippines is probably the country that primarily welcomes extra-regional naval presence in the region, given its conflict with Beijing.”

Aristillo said that instead of sending warships, it would be better for European countries to help build the capabilities of the region’s navies and coast guards, such as through exercises like the Garuda Shield, to avoid the risk of escalating tensions with China. He suggested that this is a good approach.

The annual joint U.S.-Indonesia Garuda Shield exercise has expanded since its inception to include militaries from Australia, Japan, Singapore, France and the United Kingdom.

Deterrence of incitement?

The presence of European powers could help deter China’s “aggressive moves” in the South China Sea, said Joshua Bernard Espena, a defense analyst and resident fellow at the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila. said.

However, the Chinese government considers these powers to be “external players” or “extra-regional actors,” and their presence “may also upset China,” he said. He added that it can “shape” existence.

Naval cooperation with European countries need not be limited to non-traditional threats such as piracy, smuggling, and natural disasters, but also ways to deal with “war on the high seas against regional powers like China.” That could be included, Espena said.

If only one or two ships are sent, this simply shows “goodwill,” he said. “But what really happens is when a country sends a naval task force consisting of warships with advanced operational capabilities and multiple combat roles” that have been at sea for a long time. ”

Mr Abbondanza, who is also affiliated with the University of Sydney and the Italian Institute of International Law, said that with their large navies, economies, trade ties and diplomatic relations with regional countries, these European powers are “the place where international law is being challenged”. We are trying to uphold international law.” international situation.

Recent deployments by the Italian navy and air force are just one element of a larger equation, he said, adding that Rome is currently in the midst of parliamentary discussions on a potential Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at strengthening ties with the region. He added that he is doing so.

“Italy’s evolving approach could lead to a new chapter in terms of cooperation with Indo-Pacific countries and institutions,” Abbondanza said.

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Jacob Roth, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said Italy and Germany have common interests in regional security because their economies depend on “open and secure maritime trade routes” and Asian factories and markets. said that they share the interests of

Whether the presence of European powers can ensure regional security will depend on whether regional countries “trust that central powers like France can provide a credible alternative to the increasingly tense U.S.-China relationship.” Ross said.

“The positions of France and the EU can sometimes be analyzed as less confrontational than that of the United States,” he said, adding that Paris “clearly considers itself an Asia-Pacific or Indo-Pacific power.” “There is a need to draw a distinction between France and other European powers,” he added. .

Although Italy and Germany send ships to the region, Ross noted that only France sends ships to the Taiwan Strait, has nuclear submarines, and is prepared to send them on regional missions.

According to the Taiwanese government, the French surveillance frigate Prairial passed through the strait in April.

Fabio Figiaconi, a doctoral candidate at the Brussels School of Governance, said the increased presence of European powers “will not revolutionize the Indo-Pacific security environment or significantly change the balance of power.”

He noted that with the exception of France, no European power has a permanent military presence in the Indo-Pacific region, and that deployments are occasional and temporary.

French territories in the region include Mayotte and Réunion Islands near Madagascar, and New Caledonia and French Polynesia in the Pacific Ocean.

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Figgiaconi said naval deployments and security-related initiatives advocated by the European Union and its member states are important “in terms of strategic signaling,” particularly when European powers want to ensure that the region remains “open.” This is important in conveying the message that we want to maintain a state of enforcement and freedom from coercion.” ”.

“The continuation of such naval missions and joint exercises sends a message to like-minded regional partners that the Europeans are not fully absorbed in terms of interest and resources in the Ukraine war.” he said.

“They also have interests in other strategic theaters that are really important to economic security.”