In December 2023, at a conference organized by the Italian political party Fratelli d’Italia, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, called for “more Italians” as immigration from other countries alone is not the solution. appealed to the crowd. This is not the first time Musk has expressed concern about Italy’s low birth rate. When the number of births in Italy fell below 400,000 in 2022, Musk later wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “Italy is disappearing!”
Italy experienced a baby boom after World War II. In 1964, more than 1 million births were recorded in Italy, with an average of 2.7 children per woman. In his 1968 book population bombAmerican biologist Paul Ehrlich predicted that by the end of the 20th century, overpopulation would lead to famine and infectious disease.
When the United Nations’ first International Population Conference was held in 1974, the world’s population had already reached 4 billion. Western countries even advocated family planning to control the population explosion.
I don’t know the result yet
Fifty years later, Italy is now concerned about falling birth rates, an aging population, and a declining population. The media has even described this as a “demographic winter.”
With the death of the baby boomer generation, the birth rate has fallen to 6.7 children per 1,000 people, and the average number of children per woman is 1.24, below the total fertility rate (2.1 children per woman) required to maintain a stable population. ing. Italy’s population is experiencing negative growth, currently at 59 million, but could fall to 48 million by 2070. Think tank Ambrosetti predicts that the Italian people could disappear within 300 years unless death and birth rates reverse.
The Italian Brotherhood Party believes that the decline of traditional family and maternal roles is contributing to the country’s declining birth rate, with more women pursuing professional aspirations over motherhood.
Italy’s birth rate has fallen to record lows over the past 20 years. In 2000, the number of births per 1,000 people was 10. In 2014 he had eight. By 2021, there were only 7 births per 1,000 people. Childbirth has once again evolved from an individual choice to a collective problem to a social crisis.
Increasing Italy’s birth rate is a key policy of the far-right Italian Brotherhood party. Party senator Lavinia Mennuni said: “My mother always told me…you must always remember that you have the opportunity to do whatever you want. “We must never forget that it is about becoming.” ”
However, her comments return women to traditional roles, ignore the structural problems in modern society that contribute to declining birth rates, and make childbirth a women’s mission rather than a shared responsibility of both men and women. It was criticized as such.
The Italian Brotherhood Party believes that the decline of traditional family and maternal roles is contributing to the country’s declining birth rate, with more women pursuing professional aspirations over motherhood.
Giorgia Meloni, founder of Brothers of Italy, frequently refers to herself as a “mother” during her campaign and is active in pro-family, pro-life and anti-abortion causes. Even after she becomes the country’s first female prime minister at the end of 2022, she will continue to encourage women to have children, and she will cut value-added tax (VAT) rates on diapers, baby formula and car seats. Ta. She reduces the tax burden for women with at least two children. Childcare fees for second and subsequent children will be free. And increase the bonus for the third child.
The problem is the employment environment and social welfare network.
The VAT relief on diapers and baby formula was ineffective and was abolished a year after its implementation. Free childcare has not yet been implemented, and the effects of other policies are yet to be seen.
However, data from Italy’s national statistics agency ISTAT shows that there were 3,500 fewer births in the first half of 2023 than in the same period in 2022, highlighting that Italy’s demographic winter is not getting warmer. .
Employment and social welfare network issues
Most Italians still hold the traditional idea that mothers should stay at home and care for their children until they reach primary school age. Public daycare centers and childcare centers are not common, and most elementary schools only operate for half a day, with mothers expected to pick up their children after school or wait at home. Approximately 20% of women quit their jobs within a year after giving birth to their first child.
Modern women are not convinced by moralistic arguments promoting the importance of motherhood, and their return to the family unit does not necessarily lead to increased births. It’s also wrong that women have to choose between a career and motherhood. The problem is the employment environment and social welfare network.
In the northeastern city of Bolzano, the female employment rate is over 70%, higher than the national average of 50%. Thanks to public kindergartens, a comprehensive health and social services network, support for young people to buy their first home, and a monthly child allowance of 200 euros (US$219) until the age of 3, Bolzano’s birth rate is at 1.72 and is higher. This is higher than the national average of 1.24. In contrast, women in southern Italy have less than 50% of their employment rates and relatively low birth rates. Sardinia had the lowest number of births per woman, at 0.95.
… 46% of Italians would like to have two children, and 22% would like to have three or more children, but find it difficult to do so in reality.
Women’s employment not only helps realize individual potential and promote gender equality, but it also fosters economic growth and increases tax revenues, which in turn gives governments more resources to support policies that increase birth rates. You will be more proactive. The reason for Italy’s declining birthrate is not that young people are opposed to having children. According to ISTAT, 46% of Italian girlfriends think she would like to have two children and 22% think she would like to have three or more children, but in reality this is not the case. I feel it is difficult.
Young people are unable to buy or rent a home due to low wages, and women leave their parents’ homes at the age of 29 on average, compared to men who leave at 31 years later. There is a joke about this: “Living with your parents is tough.” It is the best method of contraception. ”
Women are starting careers and starting families later in life, with the average age at which women give birth to their first child at 32.4 years old. The later you start having children, the more difficult it becomes to have children. If work or life curveballs get in the way and a woman puts off having children and misses the best time to have children, she will eventually choose not to have children.
However, 1.2 million young Italians between the ages of 18 and 34 are leaving home, choosing to go abroad for work or further study in the hope of securing a better career. Many people are eager to have children.
“Children are the first foundation of any future,” Meloni said. Having children means extending one’s life and is the greatest promise for the future, but Italians do not have the courage to act lightly due to uncertainty.
In 2020, when pandemic lockdowns left people stuck at home with nowhere to go, some predicted it would trigger another baby boom, but the opposite happened, with births declining from 2020 to 2022. did. The pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, unrest in the Middle East and worsening extreme weather events have all caused many young people to become pessimistic about the future, finding it hard to believe that tomorrow will be better and leading to radical Environmental groups even refer to themselves as the “last generation.” ”.
Mr Meloni opposes surrogacy, and his party is pushing for legislation that would define it as a “universal crime” – even if it takes place abroad…
Impossibility of returning to the traditional family unit
But even if the birth rate recovers, it will not, in the short term, address the problems caused by decades of declining birth rates. Demographers recommend bringing in immigrants to solve related problems such as labor shortages, insufficient pensions and strain on the health system, but Meloni does not welcome this.
Meloni is a strong proponent of family values, but what she promotes is the traditional family unit. Even though she herself gave birth out of wedlock and was living with her estranged partner late last year.
With the rise of feminism, more than 40% of babies born in 2022 were from new-style families without marital ties. Continuous progress on the issue of equal rights for men and women has led to the creation of many same-sex families. But after Meloni became president, a local court revoked the maternal status of 33 women in lesbian relationships on the grounds that they were “non-pregnant mothers.”
Musk appeared on stage holding a child at a political festival organized by the Italian Brothers’ Party and called on Italians to have more children. After the festival, Meloni hosted Musk (who she calls her genius entrepreneur) at the Chigi Palace. Musk, who has 11 children, is the best advocate of having children.
However, although some of Musk’s children were born through surrogate mothers, Meloni opposes surrogacy, and his party wants to enact legislation that would define surrogacy as a “universal crime.” It is said that Such crimes are possible even if committed overseas. In Italy, the penalty is three months to two years in prison and a fine of between 600,000 and 1 million euros ($65,867 to $1.1 million).
Although surrogacy comes with some ethical issues that need to be carefully considered, Meloni said, “Children are not commercial items that you can pick up on a shelf as if you were in a supermarket.” It looks like it’s covered. rational argument.
Society is rapidly changing as technology advances, and we need to consider policy from a broader perspective. Betting on a return to the traditional family unit and promoting the role of motherhood to promote childbirth is like getting blood from a stone.
This article was first published in Lianhe Caobao under the title “Yidai’s Population Cold Winter.”
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