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For most of 2023, a storm has been quietly engulfing the world’s largest military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Behind the walls of the Chinese capital’s government and military facilities, powerful generals have disappeared from public view one by one. Afterwards, some people were dismissed from their positions without explanation, even in important roles such as defense minister.
After months of intense public speculation and evasive non-responses from government spokesmen, the clearest sign of a sweeping purge within China’s military emerged last Friday, when nine senior PLA officials was expelled from the Supreme Council.
Although the National People’s Congress (NPC) itself is little more than a rubber-stamp parliament, its members enjoy some constitutional immunity from arrest and criminal prosecution. Previously, such sudden expulsions often served as a precursor to further disciplinary or legal action.
In keeping with the opacity shrouding China’s elite politics, the reasons for the generals’ sudden expulsion from the legislature have not been made clear.
But experts who have long studied China’s military point to a purge of corruption as the likely cause. Presumably, it is over the procurement and development of advanced equipment, a key element of leader Xi Jinping’s efforts to “modernize” the PLA and transform it into the “People’s Liberation Army.” World-class combat power.
The scale and depth of the recent purge is reminiscent to some of the corruption probes early in the Xi administration that led to the ouster of several senior generals and their subordinates.
Since Xi came to power in 2012, rooting out corruption and dishonesty has been a hallmark of his administration, but recent reforms suggest the movement within the military is far from over.
At the center of the latest purge is the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, an elite force established by Xi Jinping to oversee China’s rapidly expanding nuclear and ballistic missile arsenals.
The Chinese leader described the force as “the core of our strategic deterrence, the strategic support of our great power status, and the basis for building our national security.”
“It is clear to Xi Jinping and the Chinese high command that the Rocket Force’s leadership is compromised at this point,” said James Char, a longtime PLA observer and fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. says Mr.
“If this is allowed to deteriorate over an extended period of time, it will definitely impact the PLA’s overall combat capability,” Char said.
Li Gang/Xinhua Getty Images
Chinese leader Xi Jinping shakes hands with officers during a tour of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force in Beijing, September 26, 2016.
Five of the nine People’s Liberation Army officials expelled from Congress have ties to the Rocket Army.
Most notable was General Li Yuchao, who was abruptly replaced as commander along with a political commissar in July. In addition to Lee’s predecessor and two former deputy commanders, the head of military equipment procurement was also named on the list.
Three more of the expelled individuals were also involved in arms procurement, two from the PLA’s equipment development department and another who oversaw the equipment of the PLA Navy’s South Sea Fleet before becoming commander. I did.
The remaining generals removed by Congress were former commanders of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force.
“From the affiliation of these nine officials, we can more or less infer that corruption is the main reason behind the investigation into their misconduct,” Char said.
The nine dismissals came just two days after three senior aerospace executives of China’s military-industrial complex were stripped of their roles on the country’s top political advisory body.
The move against the three executives, all from a state-owned defense contractor that makes weapons and missiles, is what some analysts believe is an attack on military procurement by the Rocket Forces, a highly lucrative sector with billions of dollars flowing in top-secret funding. This is seen as further evidence of a corruption investigation. A large amount of money to create fertile soil for grafting.
“The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has been invested in a lot of expensive equipment since 2016,” Sha said, referring to a period of broad military reforms under President Xi Jinping.
As part of that ambitious overhaul, the Rocket Force was upgraded from the former Second Artillery Corps to a fully armed force. Since then, the country has undergone an unprecedented expansion, adding powerful new intercontinental and intermediate-range ballistic missiles to its arsenal and increasing the number of missile brigades from 29 to 40.
“Obviously, as the PLA Rocket Force grows in size, the amount of equipment and investment that the PLA has put into this force is enormous,” Char said.
Over the past few years, satellite images have shown hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missile silos being built in the Chinese desert, and the Pentagon has predicted that if China continues to expand its stockpile, At the current exponential pace, we predict that we could have around 1,500 nuclear warheads by then.
CNN also revealed in September how China, along with Russia and the United States, has built new facilities and dug new tunnels at nuclear test sites in recent years.
Karl Schuster said, “Mr. Xi has taken these developments very seriously, and the attention may have exposed the level of corruption that produced the cleanup efforts, which may have led to a “It also had the added benefit of weakening patronage networks that could compromise its authority.” Former Director of Operations, Joint Information Center, U.S. Pacific Command.
“Mr. Xi is looking for talented people whose loyalty and judgment he can trust.”
Jason Lee/Reuters/File
A military vehicle carrying a DF-5B intercontinental ballistic missile passes through Tiananmen Square during a military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing in 2019.
Schuster said Rocket Force could lead pre-emptive strikes against enemy forces and deter U.S. intervention in order to prevent any disputes over Taiwan or the South China Sea, two potential flashpoints between the U.S. and China. It will play an important role in the conflict.
Given the strategic importance of this force, a key question is whether widespread purges would destroy its operations and combat readiness.
Mr. Schuster pointed out that Mr. Xi had not made any changes to operational-level commanders or staff so far.
“While senior leaders were involved in building the force, they are likely not involved in operations or planning at this time,” he said.
While a large-scale purge is certain to demoralize Rocket Forces and put them under greater scrutiny, Char said that overall “the PLA’s combat capabilities are unlikely to be significantly impaired.”
As part of President Xi’s military reforms, “Rocket Force assets are actually increasingly integrated into the PLA’s joint theater command system. “It means that the capability is unlikely to be compromised,” he added.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions, experts say that in the long term, it is critical for Xi Jinping to root out corruption within the People’s Liberation Army, especially around its weapons systems.
If the purge results in a more disciplined, effective and personally loyal fighting force, that could be a victory for Mr. Xi.
From substandard equipment to expired ration packs to deadly tank weaknesses, the Russian military’s poor performance in the war with Ukraine has served as a harsh lesson for Mr. Xi and his top generals about the dangers of corruption. became.
“Going forward, the cleanup is important as the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force wants to ensure it has lethal equipment capable of functioning on the battlefield,” Char said.
Alexander Zemlyanichenko/AP
Former Defense Minister Lee Sang-bok was dismissed in October 2023 after disappearing from public view for several months.
Signs of problems with arms procurement were already evident in July.
Days before the Rocket Force’s sudden leadership shakeup, the Equipment Development Authority ordered a new crackdown on corrupt procurement practices and called on the public to report information about questionable activity dating back to October 2017.
The investigation coincided with the time when the department was headed by former Defense Minister Lee Shang-bok, who disappeared from public view for several months without explanation and was fired in October.
Zhang Yulin, one of Lee’s deputy in the equipment department, was one of nine people fired from the Legislature last week.
“(Now) they have been stripped of their membership in the National People’s Congress, so their case can proceed to the next stage, which is the military prosecution process,” Char said, adding that the purge is not over yet. Ta.
“I believe there are other generals whose actions are being investigated. That appears to be just the tip of the iceberg.”
Some of the police officers investigated are not senior enough to hold seats in parliament, and some have already retired.
At the top of analysts’ watch list is former Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, who has not been heard from since stepping down last March and passing the baton to Li Shangfu. Mr. Wei became the first commander of the Rocket Force when it was revamped at the end of 2015.
Asked about Wei’s whereabouts in August, a Chinese defense ministry spokesperson said the military had “zero tolerance for corruption” and vowed to “investigate all incidents and crack down on all corrupt officials.”
Gen. Zhu Chengsheng, commander of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force, which is in charge of space and cyber warfare, has also not been seen since the summer.
Chu raised eyebrows by missing a reception celebrating the 96th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army in late July and an awards ceremony for Chinese astronauts in September.
More than a decade after Mr. Xi took office, China’s most powerful and authoritarian leader in decades is still battling corrupt and disloyal generals and officers, including Some of them were carefully selected and promoted by Mr. Xi.
“I think he can eliminate anyone he wants. But the very fact that he continues to exclude people says a lot about his past poor judgment regarding these personnel.” said Mr. Char.
“Everything we’re seeing now, all the purges, really stems from China’s one-party centralized system and the fact that the People’s Liberation Army has no public oversight.”
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, said the purge shows that corruption cannot be completely eradicated from the system despite Xi’s continued efforts. He said there was.
“Power tends to corrupt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely,” she said. “Mr. Xi is determined to fight corruption, but corruption is a product of the system that Mr. Xi is defending. It’s a Catch-22.”