No matter who takes control of Taiwan, the US and China will win.

As Taiwan’s presidential election approaches, speculation is rife about how the outcome will affect the delicate trilateral relationship between Taiwan, the United States, and China.

Although often characterized as a proxy war between the superpowers, the reality is much more nuanced, a complex geopolitical chess game that surprisingly favors both the United States and China regardless of the outcome of the election. It shows.

In the general election scheduled for January 13, pro-American and anti-China Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde is leading in opinion polls, while Kuomintang candidate Hou Yuxi, who is seen as tolerant towards China, is leading in public opinion polls. is leading.

At the heart of the election is the tough choice faced by the Taiwanese people. Either peace or war is advocated by the Kuomintang, or democracy or dictatorship is advocated by the Democratic Progressive Party. Recent developments indicate that Yori maintains a significant lead, suggesting that the Democratic Party’s control may continue.

If either side wins, the implications will be profound on an international scale. If the Kuomintang, which upholds the “one China” principle, wins, cross-strait relations are likely to stabilize. This stabilization will help reduce the imminent threat of military conflict, benefiting both the United States and China by preserving the status quo and ensuring continued economic and political engagement in the region. Dew. A victory for the Kuomintang could be seen as a victory for China, paving the way for closer ties with Taiwan.

Conversely, a victory for the Democratic Progressive Party, which broadly advocates Taiwan’s independence, would significantly complicate cross-strait relations. For the United States, Democratic Progressive Party-led Taiwan could become a strategic asset and give it leverage against China in a broader geopolitical power struggle in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States is likely to deepen its relationship with Taiwan and further incorporate the island into its network of alliances and partnerships to counter China’s regional influence.

For China, a victory for the Democratic Progressive Party may seem disadvantageous at first glance, but it is an opportunity for the Xi Jinping government to strengthen its domestic power.

By positioning the Democratic Progressive Party as an external adversary, the Chinese government can promote national unity and legitimize its authoritarian rule in the name of protecting national sovereignty. Moreover, rising tensions could be used to accelerate China’s military and economic strategy in the region, stoke nationalist sentiments, and strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s domestic position.

Overall, Taiwan’s presidential election is the focal point of the US-China conflict and encapsulates the broader strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region. However, this is also evidence of the complex power relations in international politics, where adversarial relationships and interdependence coexist.

Whether the KMT wins or the Democratic Progressive Party wins, the effects will reverberate beyond Taiwan and influence the geopolitical calculations of both the United States and China. Ultimately, this election is not just about who will take the helm of Taiwan, but also about how the shifting balance of power will redefine the future of regional and international order.

The assumption that both the United States and China may find a strategic advantage in the election results does not alleviate the real risks and uncertainties that lie ahead.

Given the complexity of the Taiwan election and its potential impact on the U.S.-China geopolitical situation, the United States should focus on strengthening its diplomatic and strategic relationship with Taiwan regardless of the election outcome. If the Democratic Progressive Party wins, tensions with China are likely to increase, and the United States should be prepared to support Taiwan while wisely managing relations with China to avoid escalating the conflict.

The importance of fostering and nurturing positive public perceptions among Taiwanese citizens is also increasing, as emphasized by the United States’ broader geopolitical interests in the Asia-Pacific region. This imperative extends beyond mere optics, strengthening economic and security partnerships, reaffirming our unwavering support for democratic values ​​and regional stability, and positioning ourselves for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape. It encompasses a multifaceted strategy that includes:

Beyond the realm of politics, the outcome of elections has a significant impact on the economy, particularly on the global semiconductor industry. This was highlighted when Berkshire Hathaway pulled out of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in February 2023, citing geopolitical concerns. The move reflects broader concerns about regional stability and the impact on business in the United States and its allies.

To more effectively navigate these uncertainties, it is critical that the U.S. government supports these companies in understanding cross-strait developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly. Additionally, strengthening cooperation on supply chain resilience between allies is paramount.

Given the potential impact of the election on trade and economic policy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, U.S. companies will need to prioritize supply chain flexibility and preparedness for potential geopolitical changes.

Seong-Hyon Lee is a senior fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations and a visiting fellow at Harvard University’s Asia Center.