Ryu Yong-wook, an expert on China and South Korea issues at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said the development would further advance North Korea’s missile and delivery capabilities and strengthen its offensive capabilities.
‘Political time bomb’: North Korean workers reportedly riot in China over wages
‘Political time bomb’: North Korean workers reportedly riot in China over wages
“With inter-Korean relations at a stalemate, military tensions on the Korean Peninsula are likely to increase and an arms race in a region that already has multiple flashpoints will intensify,” he said.
North Korea has stepped up its missile and weapons tests in recent months, including the test launch of a new strategic cruise missile, the Purwasar 3-31, from a submarine last month.
But in addition to strengthening North Korea’s military power, “China is in a difficult situation,” Ryu said.
Meanwhile, China wants stability on the Korean peninsula and calls for limits on North Korea’s “aggressive and belligerent behavior.”
On the other hand, however, “North Korea’s strategic usefulness to the Chinese government is increasing” against the backdrop of deepening U.S.-China tensions and expanding security cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea.
“Therefore, China may become more tolerant of North Korea’s wayward external behavior,” Ryu said.
Sunday’s weapons test came weeks after Chinese and North Korean officials met.
North Korea has accused the United States and South Korea of escalating tensions over large-scale military exercises. Last month, it announced it had tested an underwater nuclear attack drone in response to a joint naval exercise between the United States, South Korea, and Japan.
Ryu suggested that this development may be related to the recent deterioration in relations between North Korea and Russia.
He said North Korea may have received missile-related technology from Russia in exchange for arms and ammunition. North Korea has previously denied US claims that it is providing artillery shells and rockets for use in the war against Ukraine.
“If so, this could be a concern for North Korea because it suggests that North Korea is becoming more independent from Chinese influence,” Ryu said.
China-South Korea foreign ministers finally meet amid tensions
China-South Korea foreign ministers finally meet amid tensions
He suggested that if China determines that North Korea is moving away from its orbit, it will start offering economic incentives to lure North Korea, with one indicator being the number of official exchanges between the two countries. It added that there was an increase in
“Whether North Korea sticks to its promise to maintain peace in the region is irrelevant given its past performance. Words are cheap for North Korea,” he said.
What matters, Ryu added, is whether North Korea is in a position to start a large-scale military conflict. It will depend on support from China and Russia, neither of which currently believes it is in its own interest.