The devastating impact of attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels was recently highlighted by Jan Hoffmann, head of logistics at the United Nations trade agency Anktad. He noted that these incidents are making the situation worse. Vulnerability Disruptions to global trade and supply chains are compounding the challenges arising from the Ukraine conflict and reduced domestic shipping volumes. panama canalAreas where water levels are decreasing due to climate change.
The Houthi rebel group, which advocates for the Palestinian cause, said it was targeting only Red Sea commercial ships linked to Israel and promised safe passage for ships from China, Russia and other countries. But in a major attack last month, Houthi militants fired missiles at targets. Tanker carrying Russian oil Near the coast of Yemen.
This highlights the group’s inability to pinpoint its targets and suggests it may only be a matter of time before Chinese vessels are attacked. China’s approach to this situation reveals both economic and geopolitical challenges.
Trade volumes passing through the Suez Canal have fallen by 42% in the past two months as ships avoid the Red Sea, Ankutad announced on January 26. China’s main concern is the increased time and cost associated with transporting goods through alternative routes. . Fares on the Shanghai-Nordic route soared, from US$581 per 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) in mid-October to US$2,694 at the end of December, triple the price at the beginning of December and outpacing the US. January is $3000.
Beyond transportation costs, the transportation of energy products has also been affected. Qatar Energy, a major liquefied natural gas exporter, was forced to suspend LNG shipments through the Red Sea last month, and ship navigation in the region remains difficult and disrupted. In addition, shipping through alternative routes to the Panama Canal is restricted. severe drought The falling water levels have forced major shipping companies to adopt a different strategy. Consumer goods may continue to experience significant disruptions even during periods of shipping weakness.
Chinese ships may be sailing through the Red Sea without being attacked, but China still has to contend with soaring energy prices. increased Shipping and insurance costs and extended delivery times to Europe. Reducing the Suez Canal route could further widen price divergences and increase volatility for commodities, including oil.
But beyond the economic costs, China also needs to consider the situation in the Red Sea in the context of its broader role in global affairs.
China has long criticized the Houthis. 2015, Yemeni civil war, After the Houthis captured the capital Sanaa, China supported a UN Security Council resolution calling for the “immediate and unconditional” withdrawal of the Houthis. In 2022, China supported a resolution condemning the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. However, relations between China and Iran remain friendly, and in 2021 the two countries agreed to strengthen ties with Iran. Comprehensive strategic partnership. Chinese officials have reportedly urged Iranian authorities to curb the Houthis and their attacks in the Red Sea.
Despite maintaining a naval base in nearby Djibouti, China has so far refused to participate A U.S.-led mission to safely escort ships in the Red Sea. However, there are signs that Beijing is no longer completely passive, and has reportedly begun deploying naval vessels to escort Chinese cargo ships in the Red Sea.
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US-led coalition attacks Iranian-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen
US-led coalition attacks Iranian-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen
Pressure is mounting on China to act more decisively. Even though Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan were expected to discuss the Houthi attacks during their recent meeting in Bangkok, not officially mentioned. It was expected that the Chinese government would present concrete proposals and strategies to contribute to joint efforts to protect the Red Sea.
Analysts say the situation is too serious to overlook, but too delicate to mention explicitly. Taking decisive action in response will be a challenge for China, especially when it comes to putting pressure on Iran.
Since 2021, China has reportedly invested US$185 million in Iran, while only recently agreeing to a multi-billion dollar investment and construction deal with Saudi Arabia. It is. normalized Relations with Iran, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. This has led to growing frustration within Iran that China is not doing more to ease economic pressure.
Importantly, China sees tensions in the Red Sea as a spillover from the Gaza conflict. Its concern is to protect its interests from broader regional conflict strategies. There are also concerns in the region that additional measures by China, such as the deployment of warships, could be seen as a threat to regional security.
China and the US can better resolve the Red Sea crisis if they work together
The Red Sea region is important to the strategic interests of both the United States and China. They want stable trade, energy and resource flows, counter-terrorism efforts, and the promotion of good governance and stability. However, recent tensions between the United States and China have reduced opportunities for cooperation between the two countries in the Red Sea.
This crisis is an opportunity for a breakthrough. Despite US military action, merchant shipping in the Red Sea remains under pressure. China should consider making a more active contribution, drawing on its experience in escorting merchant vessels during previous piracy flare-ups in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
The potential for U.S.-China cooperation stems not from love but from the critical importance of issues such as supply chains and energy supplies to both China and Washington. Negotiations will be critical to establishing frameworks and mechanisms and planning how to respond in the event of contact between U.S. and Chinese forces on the ground.
Dr. Nong Hong is Executive Director and Senior Fellow at the China and America Institute in Washington, USA, and a Research Fellow at the China Institute at the University of Alberta, Canada.
