With relations between China and the Philippines at a crossroads, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo as follows: December 20th Telephone“Faced with the path to choose, the Philippines must tread carefully.” “China has always been committed to resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation and jointly safeguarding maritime stability,” it added.
Wang also said that if the Philippines misjudges the situation, sticks to its course, or colludes with outside forces to stir up trouble, China will “protect its rights in accordance with the law and respond resolutely.” “I will,” he emphasized.
Mr. Wang’s statement sent two clear messages. First, it served as a warning to the Philippines that any escalation or persistence of provocations in the South China Sea will not be tolerated. China will respond with all its might and take all necessary countermeasures.
water cannon attackFor example, actions criticized by the Philippines as dangerous could become common practice in disputed waters if the Philippines continues to escalate tensions or tries to involve external parties in maritime disputes. There is.
The second message is that Beijing will strengthen ties with other claimants and ASEAN members such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, leaving the Philippines to fight alone.
China is approaching these three countries as part of its efforts to foster a community of common destiny. There were three important state visits: Malaysian Prime Minister; Anwar Ibrahim in Beijing In March, Indonesian President Joko Widodo was in Beijing in October; Xi Jinping in Hanoi During December. Importantly, these high-level diplomatic engagements tension broke out It took place between China and the Philippines in February.
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Philippines sets up ‘Game Changer’ surveillance base on disputed South China Sea island
Philippines sets up ‘Game Changer’ surveillance base on disputed South China Sea island
Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia have all expressed their intention to work with China to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.
It is noteworthy that none of these three countries has responded to the Philippines’ proposal. Individual code of conduct The actions in the disputed waters are not part of the Philippines’ recent provocations against China. This is important because all three countries have separate claims against China.
It is clear that other claimants have no intention of provoking China in the South China Sea. Instead, both countries are committed to promoting economic cooperation and diplomatic engagement with China, with the aim of promoting economic growth and social stability within their respective territories.
Moreover, positive trends have emerged in China-US relations in recent months. US-China summit meeting In San Francisco in November, restoration Full military communications will take place in December. The emphasis on non-confrontation and non-conflict as fundamental principles of China-US relations also underscores the expectation that the two countries will manage competition realistically and prevent escalation of tensions.
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‘The door on China-US relations will never be closed again’: President Xi Jinping assures US companies
‘The door on China-US relations will never be closed again’: President Xi Jinping assures US companies
Against this background, the Philippines’ aggressive actions in the South China Sea will likely be restrained to some extent by the United States. As Manalo said in a telephone conversation with Wang, he said he wanted to manage the conflict in a way acceptable to both sides to reduce tensions and prevent conflict in the South China Sea.
Recently, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in an interview with Japanese media that despite U.S. support, maritime disputes with China are “purely a Philippine concern” and that Manila has called it “a Philippine concern.” It’s a problem, and we’re going to fix it.” ourselves”.
Perhaps the Philippines has noticed this too. serious consequences China denies US military involvement in the South China Sea, and is trying to distance itself from the US over territorial disputes with China.
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Philippines says Chinese vessels in disputed waters cannot prevent ‘dangerous’ resupply mission
Philippines says Chinese vessels in disputed waters cannot prevent ‘dangerous’ resupply mission
What is noteworthy is that China has not closed the door to dialogue. China could resume talks with the Philippines if it returns to the right track and is willing to jointly manage maritime disputes.
According to the Chinese statement, in response to Mr. Wang’s advice on dialogue, Mr. Manalo will strengthen sincere dialogue with China, give full play to the role of communication mechanism in maritime issues between the two countries, and seek solutions to problems. He said he would like to explore this jointly. . In his brief public statement, Manalo described his conversation with Wang as a “frank and frank exchange.”
The two sides also agreed to hold a meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea soon.
Manila’s South China Sea “honor and shame” policy puts Beijing at a disadvantage
The telephone conversation between the two foreign ministers was important in easing tensions, but any improvement in bilateral relations will depend on the outcome of future dialogue between the two countries.
Despite the thaw, some Philippine actions still concern China, including the activation of newly installed weapons. Japanese radar system On the day of the phone call, the Philippine Navy was sent to monitor shipping activity in the South China Sea. At the ceremony, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro strongly refuted China’s criticism that the Philippines had provoked tensions.
The Philippines appears to be concerned about rising tensions with China. not softened He emphasized his position in the South China Sea so as not to appear weak.
In conclusion, it is too early to judge whether relations between China and the Philippines will improve as a result of the Wang-Manalo telephone conversation. Factors include: sectarianism The situation within Marcos Jr.’s cabinet and the role of the United States could influence the Philippines’ China policy, potentially putting the relationship on an uncertain trajectory. Hopefully, both sides can minimize internal and external interference and facilitate the normalization process.
Nian Peng is Director of the Hong Kong Center for Asian Studies (RCAS).