If Mr. Marcos wins, the Philippines is likely to remain an ally of Washington. A Duterte victory could separate Beijing from its ranks of geopolitical fools and embolden itself.Given the Beijing’s reaction Marcos Jr.’s congratulations to Taiwan’s new leader make it clear that the Chinese government wants to gain Marcos’ support. The problem is that despite so much favor with Beijing, President Duterte has achieved little on the economic front.
Mr. Marcos unapologetically ignored Mr. Duterte’s policies to a large extent. China-friendly foreign policyInstead, it has firmly enclosed the Philippines in a pro-American embrace. The policy shift has increasingly drawn Beijing’s ire as tensions in the disputed West Philippine Sea clearly escalate and concerns grow over Beijing’s hardline approach toward Taiwan.
By expanding defense ties with the United States, President Marcos has put the Philippines front and center in tense U.S.-China relations, a development that critics say could weaken the country. target In any dispute.
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Philippines rushes to strengthen weakened military in face of maritime conflict
Philippines rushes to strengthen weakened military in face of maritime conflict
However, any move by the United States or China to strengthen its position could have unintended consequences and fuel dissatisfaction among the Filipino people.of unravel Collapse of Marcos-Duterte alliance confuses both Washington and China and raises new geopolitical problems black swan.
With the Middle East teetering on the brink of regional conflict, the US government appears to be at an impasse, and the prospect of a sudden shift in the geopolitical underpinnings in the South China Sea would be unwelcome at best.
Marcos’ desire to overhaul one of Southeast Asia’s most protectionist economies brought the cold war between the two rival families into the light and exposed Duterte’s simmering frustrations.
Marcos inaugurated Bagong Pilipinas Or New Philippines, which touted a master plan to improve government services at a rally in Manila last Sunday that police say drew as many as 400,000 people. Mr. Marcos has also supported controversial moves. Amend the 1987 Constitution Duterte is fiercely opposed to this move to attract more foreign investment.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. speaks at the kick-off rally for the “New Philippines” movement at the Quirino Grandstand in Manila on January 28. Supporters of Marcos Jr. and Rodrigo Duterte gathered at opposing rallies on January 28, as the battle over the constitution comes to light. The rift between powerful clans deepens. Photo: AFP
President Duterte has argued that Marcos’ allies are bent on lifting term limits, including presidential term limits, and fears that Marcos may seek an additional six-year term, which is not allowed under the constitution. There are growing concerns about President Duterte held a protest rally, vividly recalling his memories of those days. Expulsion in 1986 The name of dictator Ferdinand Marcos, the same name of the current president.
In what appears to be an orchestrated political attack, the Duterte family has blamed Mr. Marcos, and former President Duterte has accused Mr. Marcos of being a drug addict, which Mr. Marcos claims. made indirectly In the past. In a furious attack, President Duterte claimed that the Philippine military was aware of Marcos Jr.’s alleged addiction. It’s probably not beyond the realm of possibility that President Duterte would try to bring in his military.
His anger was followed by his son, Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte, who also called for Marcos Jr.’s resignation, accusing the president of being lazy and demanding his resignation over allegations of increased crime.
President Duterte’s rhetoric and efforts to unseat Marcos are also fueled by the president’s agitation against the International Criminal Court (ICC). investigation President Duterte’s drug war begins. Maybe Marcos threw Duterte to the wolves. Exclude It continues to cooperate with the ICC despite allegations that ICC investigators were in the country, infuriating President Duterte’s supporters.
The stakes are extremely high for Dutertes. The ICC investigation and the expectation that the Hague-based tribunal could issue an arrest warrant not only threatens President Duterte but could also draw in incumbent Vice President Sara Duterte. The ICC investigation covers the period from November 1, 2011 to March 16, 2019, when Sala served as Davao City mayor. There is a cruel irony in Mr. Marcos’ response to Mr. Duterte’s drug addiction allegations by suggesting that his predecessor had overdosed on fentanyl.
At this point, economy He is likely to be the immediate casualty of the war between Mr. Marcos and Mr. Dutertes. Markets don’t like uncertainty, investors are likely to be deterred, and hopes for much-needed reforms are waning. The growing economic hardship felt by Filipinos could be bad news for both Marcos and Dutertes if their theatrics are found to be responsible.
Meanwhile, the United States and China face potentially escalating challenges in the battle for regional supremacy. With no elder statesman in the Philippines, the possibility of reaching a compromise acceptable to both sides seems a remote prospect.
For now, ongoing events in the Philippines have attracted the urgent attention of both Washington and China.
Mark Townsend is an award-winning journalist covering Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
