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The deepening crisis is posing a new test to China’s much-touted ambitions to become the new power broker in the Middle East, as Houthi rebels continue to attack commercial ships in the Red Sea.
The attack on one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes has upended global trade and raised fears of a broader regional conflict, nearly four months after the start of the Israel-Hamas war.
So far, China’s public response to the Red Sea crisis has been limited to calls for an end to attacks on civilian ships and veiled criticism of the U.S.-led military operation against the Houthis, analysts say. , says this falls far short of the Chinese government’s global goals.
Mordechai Chaziza, a senior lecturer at Israel’s Ashkelon Academic College who specializes in China-Middle East relations, said: “China’s cautious or hesitant response casts a significant shadow on China’s ambitions to become a responsible world power.” ”
With Beijing showing no desire to get directly involved in the crisis, the US is trying to provoke China to pressure Iran, which trains, funds and equips the Houthis, to curb its attacks. .
The stakes are high for China, the world’s largest trading nation. Most of China’s exports to Europe are transported through the Red Sea, with tens of millions of tons of oil and minerals passing through the waterway to reach Chinese ports.
This is also a diplomatic challenge for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who has vowed in recent years to “contribute Chinese wisdom to promoting peace and tranquility in the Middle East” as part of efforts to provide an alternative to the Western-led security order. This is also the issue above.
In mid-November, Yemen’s Houthi rebels began firing missiles and drones at ships in the Red Sea in what they claimed was an act of solidarity with the Palestinians. However, many vessels with no ties to Israel have been targeted.
For weeks, the Chinese public’s reaction was noticeably muted. There was no condemnation of the Houthis, and the warship did not respond to distress calls from nearby ships under attack.
China also pushed back against the U.S.-led multinational coalition protecting ships transiting the Red Sea, even as the People’s Liberation Army Navy has anti-piracy forces operating in the Gulf of Aden and a support base in nearby Djibouti. .
More recently, Beijing has become increasingly concerned about tensions after the United States and Britain launched military strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
The UN Security Council noted that no country had authorized the use of force in Yemen, called for an end to attacks on civilian vessels and urged “all parties involved to avoid adding fuel to the fire.”
Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that the Red Sea crisis is a “spillover” from the Gaza conflict and said an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is a top priority.
Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, China has portrayed itself as a defender of the Global South and an alternative to US power by expressing support for the Palestinian cause and criticizing Israel and the US for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. I’ve been trying to show it as a presence.
Beijing’s reluctance to intervene in the Red Sea crisis reflects this geopolitical calculation.
“China has no interest in joining the US-led Western coalition. Such action would strengthen the US position as a regional hegemon and weaken China’s position in the region,” Chaziza said. said.
White House officials met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok on Saturday, and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told China it would seek “substantial leverage with Iran” to thwart an attack. told reporters on Saturday.
“This is not the first time we have asked China to play a constructive role. The Chinese government has said it is raising the issue with the Iranian side, which is reflected in some reports. But before we comment further on how effective our ideas are or whether we think they’re actually raising it. , we will wait to see the results.”
Reuters reported on Friday, citing Iranian intelligence sources, that Chinese officials have urged Iranians in several recent meetings to help curb the Houthis or risk damaging business ties with Beijing. It was reported that he asked for it.
“Basically, China is saying, ‘If our interests are harmed in any way, it will affect our business with Iran.’ So tell the Houthis to restrain themselves.” , an Iranian official briefed on the talks told Reuters.
The details of the meeting between Wang and Sullivan released by the Chinese government did not mention the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said last week that China “actively de-escalated the situation from the first day” and “has been in close contact with various parties and actively worked to ease tensions in the Red Sea.”
Yangyang/AP
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi view an honor guard during a welcome ceremony in Beijing, February 14, 2023.
Although the Houthis have said they will not target Chinese or Russian vessels, China’s interests are still threatened by the crisis.
Like many global shipping companies, China’s state-owned shipping giants Cosco and OOCL have many ships on much longer routes from the Red Sea to the southern tip of Africa, according to data compiled by Swiss-based logistics firm Kuehne & Nagel. Ten ships were diverted. . These detours typically take her more than 10 days to travel, delay deliveries, and increase shipping costs.
Historically, 90% of cargo shipped from China to Europe went through the Red Sea, but now 90% of that shipment bypasses Africa, according to Flexport, a global logistics company based in San Francisco. It is said that there is
The disruption caused sea freight rates from Shanghai to Europe to rise by more than 300% from November to January, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, posing a major challenge for Chinese exporters in an already slowing economy. ing.
Pressure for action may also be coming from China’s regional partners.
Jonathan Fulton, a non-resident senior fellow at the Abu Dhabi-based Atlantic Council, said China’s inaction has eroded trust from regional stakeholders.
He said, “The recognition that we are an emerging extra-regional power will not be established unless we try to get involved ourselves.”
“The U.S.-British-led coalition does the heavy lifting and China looks on. That’s a bad view. Regional leaders probably see China as a papier-mâché tiger.”
Trade disruptions hurt everyone in the wallet. Egypt is losing millions of dollars a day due to reduced traffic in the Suez Canal at the northern end of the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, which is in peace talks with the Houthis after nine years of war in Yemen, “cannot do anything directly without becoming a target of the Houthis, so it wants other countries to do something.” said Fulton.
Therefore, China is placed in a difficult position. A delicate balance must be struck between Iran, an anti-US ally, and the Gulf states, arguably China’s more important economic partners in the region.
Beijing last year brokered historic rapprochement between long-time regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, but analysts say thwarting Houthi attacks could pose a tougher challenge for China. List points out.
“This idea has so much momentum that China is becoming a major diplomatic, political and security actor,” Fulton said. However, events since the Israel-Hamas war have shown that China’s approach to the region remains driven by economic interests, and it does not yet have the desire or ability to play a very important role in other areas. It actually shows that it’s not.”
China has been Iran’s largest trading partner for the past decade, buying 90% of Iran’s oil exports. However, the extent to which this can be reflected in influence will be a test of Beijing’s political capital.
“The reality is that China has limited influence in actually influencing Iran’s behavior,” said William Figueroa, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.
“China’s investment in Iran is relatively low, and halting oil trade completely would be politically and logistically complex. This does not mean that it cannot or will not actually reduce imports, but it does mean that it is unlikely unless Chinese vessels are specifically targeted or escalation continues.”
The escalating conflict in the Middle East has also raised questions about President Xi’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), which Beijing has touted as “China’s solutions and wisdom to solve security challenges.”
Launched by President Xi in 2022, the initiative advocates a broad set of Chinese diplomatic principles, including “resolving conflicts through development and eliminating hotbeds of unrest.”
“GSI is very normatively oriented, and the idea is that economic solutions to insecurity will change these problems,” Fulton said.
The concept was well received by local governments wishing to increase economic development and foreign direct investment. And for a while, things seemed to be heading in that direction.
In August, China’s top diplomat Wang declared that a “wave of reconciliation” was sweeping through the Middle East with Chinese support. But that narrative was shattered just over a month later when Hamas launched an attack on Israel, plunging the region into a new conflict.
“We see what has happened since then, but when there are actually serious security threats in the form of terrorism and attacks on global shipping, the normative no longer matters. We need hard security solutions,” Fulton said.