The bilateral relationship is deep and bipartisan, with common interests in security and trade, providing continuity no matter who is in power in either country.
In a nutshell
- The United States is typically the largest source of foreign direct investment to Spain
- Madrid pledges to increase defense spending to NATO standard of 2% of GDP
- US policymakers are willing to work with either socialists or conservatives
There is no conceivable scenario in which bilateral cooperation between Madrid and Washington could be seriously challenged. That said, in the coming years, depending on the nature of the governments of the two capitals, very different conditions for cooperation may be established, and the relationship, at least formal and correct, may not be reliable. It will be a wide range of things, from positive to positive. The two countries have divided voters with different visions for the future of the transatlantic community. Who controls the capital in the future will determine the next stage of the relationship.
How Spain and the United States help each other and why it matters
NATO membership remains the cornerstone of bilateral partnerships. Spain is home to his two important US military bases: Moron Air Base and Rota Naval Base. They support not only NATO but also the projection of American military power into the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Africa. Moreover, Spain and the United States generally share common priorities, including support for Ukraine and NATO enlargement. For example, both countries recently supported adding Finland and Sweden to the alliance. The Spanish government has vowed to reach 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in defense spending in 2022, but has so far fallen short, with spending estimated at less than 1.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023. be done.
Furthermore, despite the public uproar that erupted after a Spanish minister condemned Israel’s genocide, the Spanish government publicly shares the US policy of strongly supporting Israel during the Gaza conflict. .
The United States is typically the largest source of foreign direct investment for Spain, which has a population of 47 million people. China’s influence has been dwarfed by the economic powerhouse of the United States and Europe, which world economics estimates will have a gross domestic product of $1.9 trillion in 2023 based on purchasing power parity. While Madrid is openly open to engagement with China, it prioritizes relations with Western countries.
Spain also has influence in the Ibero-Atlantic world. Cooperation between the United States and Spain increases its diplomatic importance in relations with Latin America and North Africa. This partnership could be a strategic advantage for both countries as Western countries compete to expand their influence in the Global South. Bilateral relations are comprehensive. The United States and Spain play pivotal roles in the “culture wars” raging in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and Europe, on issues ranging from family policy to religion, education, and gender. Both are caught in a tug-of-war between traditionalists and progressives over issues such as climate change, diversity, and historical responsibility for colonialism and imperialism.
How changes in government affect relationships
There is currently a strong geopolitical alliance between the US administration led by President Joe Biden and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, a socialist who has been in power since 2018. This commitment was reaffirmed after Mr. Biden visited Spain from June 26 to 28, 2022. “Spain and the United States are committed to upholding the rules-based international order that has been the foundation that has kept our countries safe and promoted our prosperity for the past 70 years,” the joint declaration said. Sanchez last visited the White House in May 2023.
However, there are big questions about how long the prime minister will remain in power. He won a parliamentary majority with the votes of Catalan secessionist party Junts (Tomo) after promising to pass a national amnesty bill for those involved in the illegal 2017 independence referendum. The proposal was highly controversial, sparking weeks of widespread public protests.
The debate over the legality and viability of the amnesty bill has been a difficult start for the new coalition government, which reached an agreement with the far-left Sumal party in October 2023, but many bills have already given rise to a “Frankenstein government.” “It is called. Achieving a parliamentary majority requires political compromise. The question is whether the government can withstand it. There is also a good chance that the coalition government will collapse and new national elections will be necessary. If a conservative government is installed in Spain in the short term, it could cause friction with President Biden’s administration.
For example, the Spanish government directly supports the São Paulo Forum, which Heritage Foundation senior fellow Michael Gonzalez describes as “the largest and most influential international Marxist organization in the world…pro-China, pro-Russia.” The forum includes several influential left-wing leaders in Latin America, including the heads of government of Cuba, Bolivia, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico. The Biden administration has been very tolerant of forum leaders, even though their policies often conflict with U.S. interests. Gonzalez noted that at last summer’s conference, speakers “routinely criticized the United States and defended and praised China, Russia, Cuba, and Venezuela.”
But the Biden administration views the forum more as a “debating society” than a geopolitical issue. Meanwhile, the conservative Spanish government will immediately distance itself from the Forum and Latin American socialists, putting the United States and Spain on different agendas in their engagement with the Ibero-Atlantic region.
The conservative Spanish government is also likely to take a more skeptical view of the issue of climate change, focusing more on providing reliable, affordable and abundant energy than achieving net-zero emissions. would put
A conservative government may not be energetic enough to take the lead in the culture wars, but it is likely to be more socially conservative and less interested in Biden’s progressive global policies. There is no doubt about it.
Moreover, the conservative Spanish government is likely to align itself with the United States and Europe and take a tougher stance toward China, rather than viewing Spain and Europe as “alternatives” to China and the United States.
scenario
The Biden administration and the conservative Spanish government are likely to get along well. After all, the Biden team maintains a very constructive relationship with the conservative Italian government, and the conservative Spanish government may well be similar.
In a contrasting scenario, if Prime Minister Sánchez were to maintain a coalition government and Republicans take control of the White House in January 2025, the situation would effectively be reversed and a new conservative government in Washington would have a stronghold on climate change orthodoxy and Latin America. The situation would be effectively reversed, with far less interest in the left wing. . This view would be in contrast to the current Spanish government.
But there will also be an element of continuity, regardless of who takes the position in Madrid and Washington over the next few years. One is that there is a clear continuity of support for NATO. The two governments will also strive to find common ground in relations with China, Latin America and North Africa.
A mix of conservative and liberal governments in the two capitals is possible, but not impossible. Even if the two countries’ policies are not completely aligned, there is little chance that the bilateral partnership will be in jeopardy. On the other hand, if the politics of the two governments were aligned, geopolitical friction would be greatly reduced and there would be more opportunity and interest to advance a common agenda.
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