Russia, suffering from the financial and diplomatic fallout from the Ukraine war, is stepping up cooperation with China to expand its foothold in the Arctic, a new civilian intelligence report says. It is having a significant impact.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long prioritized military and economic expansion in the Arctic as a key aspect of his geopolitical strategy and ambitions, and began cooperating with China in the region after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ta. But after trying to limit the People’s Republic’s involvement, Russia has recently significantly expanded China’s participation, said a report by Strider Intelligence, a company that focuses on open source information about China. There is.
“Russia’s growing willingness to allow China’s expansion into the Arctic shows that an ‘open-ended’ partnership between the two countries is realistic and a potential counterbalance to the US-led alliance,” the report said. Says.
The report said that for decades, Russia has been involved in a number of actions against China and other It added that non-Arctic countries have been actively excluded from playing a role in the Arctic.
But Russia’s growing economic and diplomatic isolation is forcing the Kremlin to change its approach, Strider found. The other seven Arctic Council members have stopped cooperating with Russia, forcing Strider to seek a previously unthinkable partnership with China.
After analyzing publicly available business data, Strider found:
- From January to July 2023, 123 new Chinese-owned companies registered to operate in the Arctic, compared to 111 in 2022, 77 in 2021, and 48 in 2020. It was done.
- The data also show that since 2013, cooperation between Russia and China in several Arctic and Far Eastern projects has increased, particularly in the areas of liquefied natural gas, mineral extraction and infrastructure.
- Trade between Russia and China via the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic Ocean, which connects Europe and Asia, is also increasing. In 2023, at least 11 ships transported Russian crude oil to China via this route. Only one “test” voyage to China took place in 2022.
The Strider report also found that Russian defense spending in the Arctic has stagnated while private commercial investment continues to increase.
“Moscow has also shifted traditional defense spending away from the region in the wake of the Ukraine war and has increased its reliance on state-support mechanisms to attract private investment to maintain and expand Russia’s presence in the Arctic. ”, the report states.
Strider co-founder Eric Levesque said in an interview that Russia’s current economic realities will force it to grant China far more access to the Arctic than previously thought.
“They are overly dependent on China for oil and technology purchases. And this is what we are seeing in the Arctic,” he said.
However, he added that Russia far outpaces the United States in terms of investment and development in the Arctic.
“The Arctic consistently seems to be an afterthought for the United States,” he said. “The US is not making it a priority. Russia is probably more than 10 years ahead of the US. I did.”
Members of the House Homeland Security Committee expressed similar concerns as expert witnesses during a November hearing examining the implications of Russian and Chinese cooperation in the Arctic for U.S. national security.
“We can ensure that we protect our national security interests, our economic security interests, our energy security interests, our environmental security interests, which are so important to our national security,” said Senator Dunn. “We must respond by strengthening the presence of both military and civilian forces.” Sullivan, R-Alaska, testified as a witness.
Although Russia continues to maintain strategic nuclear forces in the Arctic, Strider noted that spending by four of Russia’s five main state-run defense institutions in the Arctic has decreased significantly. Compared to the spending peak in 2019, the cumulative spending of these five organizations decreased by about 90% in 2021, the report said, likely due to the impact of the Ukraine war.
The budget of Russia’s Ministry of Far East and Arctic Development, the government agency responsible for the socio-economic development of the Arctic, has increased by almost 300% since 2016, according to Strider data. The participation of private companies and individual entrepreneurs in the Kremlin-backed special economic zones in the region increased from around 230 organizations in 2016 to more than 4,000 last year.
“These changes demonstrate that the Arctic remains a priority for Russia’s geopolitical strategy and ambitions,” the report said. “While Russia is adapting and balancing both a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and pursuing its ambitions in the Arctic, the West, NATO, and other Arctic actors are similarly We need to adapt and balance to counter Russia on both, otherwise the West will fall further behind, risking Arctic security and losing economic interests for Russia and China. It will be.”